Timgeorge2 wrote: So you just ignore the fact that he's 21 years old? The kid's body isn't finished developing. He's a great athlete. I think there's a lot of power potential in the bat and his base stealing success will get better as he learns to be a better basestealers.
Being a prospect or not doesn't have to do with his age. There are prospects years older than he. You hope that he develops a power stroke but he doesn't have a ton of gap power right now that usually matures into HR power.
I was using the term "prospect" loosely. I know what the actual requirements are to be a prospect and I agree that he's not one. That's beside the point.
My point is that he's good and he's got the chance to be excellent in the near future. He's a natural hitter that's super young. I expect his power to improve with maturity and I expect him to learn to run the bases better. He's not going to get faster, but he's certainly going to get more awareness on the basepaths.
Its not maturity that brings Home Runs its size, strength, and bat speed. Castro upped his XBH in each of his first 2 seasons and maybe one day they start going over the fence, but its definitely not something I'm counting on.
Timgeorge2 wrote:I expect him to learn to run the bases better. He's not going to get faster, but he's certainly going to get more awareness on the basepaths.
How many players steal more bases as they get older? I honestly don't know, but it can't be hard to find out. I would think it's a stat that decreases pretty much every year, as opposed to something like power which peaks in the late 20s.
Starlin Castro has a 65% SB success rate in the majors after having a 68% success rate in the minors.
Stat maven Theo Epstein is not going to continue to allow Castro to give up an out 1/3 of the time he runs. Unless Castro gets significantly better at stealing bases, I am confident his attempts will decrease.
It's Houston and it's not even close. Plus Houston players are even less valuable in NL-Only leagues where they won't even have keeper value if you get them cheap. Houston is a perfect storm of Fantasy Irrelevance for 2012.
UNLESS, they are so irrelevant, and you are going for it all this season, none of your league mates want anything to do with them and you are able to spend big on studs early and then fill in with full-time Houston starting players during dollar days. My NL-only league is deep enough that many teams are forced to start part-time players and simply being towards the top of the league in AB's will make you a contender.
TopChuckie wrote:It's Houston and it's not even close. Plus Houston players are even less valuable in NL-Only leagues where they won't even have keeper value if you get them cheap. Houston is a perfect storm of Fantasy Irrelevance for 2012.
My initial reaction was for Houston, but the more I think about the more I would have to vote for Oakland. Probably 2 fringe type offensive players for a 12 team league and 2 maybe 3 pitchers with relevance other than the closer for Houston. 2 maybe 3 fringe type offensive players and maybe 1 pitcher other than the closer for Oakland.
MasterX1918 wrote:not much love for Bud Norris in this thread, dude had a great 2011 and posted good ratios. I wouldn't mind having him on my squad next year.
He had "shoulder soreness," late in the year didn't he? He's a notorious slider happy pitcher, could be bad news for his health.
Curtis Pride wrote:Starlin Castro has a 65% SB success rate in the majors after having a 68% success rate in the minors.
Stat maven Theo Epstein is not going to continue to allow Castro to give up an out 1/3 of the time he runs. Unless Castro gets significantly better at stealing bases, I am confident his attempts will decrease.
I would expect no more than 15 steals next year.
I agree that he'll need to be more efficient to continue to get attempts, but going from a 56% success rate to a 71% success rate from his rookie year to his second year is a pretty substantial improvement. If he picks up the nuances of base stealing, the speed is there (14 triples in 1137 at-bats is a pretty solid indicator of speed). I personally like Castro a lot more this year than I did after his first season.
Curtis Pride wrote:Starlin Castro has a 65% SB success rate in the majors after having a 68% success rate in the minors.
Stat maven Theo Epstein is not going to continue to allow Castro to give up an out 1/3 of the time he runs. Unless Castro gets significantly better at stealing bases, I am confident his attempts will decrease.
I would expect no more than 15 steals next year.
How will he know if he's improved if he's running less?
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by bigh0rt » Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:33 pm 
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