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Giantsfan14's Projections and Rankings (updated 2/10)

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Giantsfan14's Projections and Rankings (updated 2/10)

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:34 am

Update #7- Auction values tweaked to a deeper league. Pitcher values lowered. Overall pitcher rankings added. Overall rankings added (comparing the hitter values to pitcher values is a little rough so wary of that when looking at the overall rankings.)

Update #6- Relief Pitchers added (waiting on TheRock's auction values for ranking)

Update #5- Auction values added! (Big thanks to TheRock for calculating them from my projections.)

Auction values based on a shallow 12 team league that starts 9 hitters (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3 OF, UTIL). Values are adjusted for positional scarcity. From the looks of it TheRock's auction values put quite a bit more stock in batting average than I did in my eyeball rankings, so take that under advisement when looking them over.

Update #4- Starting pitchers ranking finished. Two more cafe mocks being added to the mock spreadsheet.

Update #3- Starting pitchers added (not fully ranked)

Update #2- OBP added. Rankings are done assuming a standard 5x5 roto league (OBP is not taken into account).

Update #1- Projections are now sortable.

So after taking the year off from playing fantasy last year I'm back in the game and decided to make my first set of projections. I usually do my own rankings, but I've never gone through the process of doing my rankings based on my own projections of players. I've had a bit of free time this winter and I've basically poured all of it into making a pretty massive spreadsheet that automatically projects players based on peripheral stats that I plug in.

I started by taking three-year weighted averages for each player by importing the last three seasons from fangraphs into excel. I weighted 2011 60%, 2010 30% and 2009 10%... this was the backbone of my projections. From there I imported all the ball in play data for the last three years from fangraphs and used that to calculate expected BABIPs. I compared those xBABIPs to actual BABIPs and used that to project a BABIP for each player for 2012. Once I finished that, I weighted the ball in play data using the same 60/30/10 ratios to create weighted FB%, HR/FB, K%, and BB% numbers. From the weighted FB% and HR/FB, I had the spreadsheet automatically project a homerun total. From the weighted BB% I had the spreadsheet automatically project at bats (based on the weighted plate appearances). From the weighted K% and my own projected BABIPs, I had the spreadsheet automatically calculate batting averages. The spreadsheet was also set up to automatically adjusted the weighted RBI, run, and stolen base numbers based on plate appearances. Once I had this all done, I was able to go through player by player and tweak plate appearances, FB%, HR/FB, K%, BB%, RBIs, runs and stolen bases based on my perception of each player's playing time, injury history, age, and spot in the batting order along with any team changes. Obviously the three year averages are not as effective for younger players so they required quite a bit more tweaking/projecting.

(If anyone has any ideas for a better way to go about this, don't hesitate to let me know, I always appreciate advice!)

Once I finished my projections, I basically just eye-balled my rankings from there. At some point I'd like to go through and calculate dollar values for auction leaguers and to help form more accurate rankings. But until then, if you see someone who looks out of place based on my projections, let me know and I can go back and tweak the rankings.

2012 Batter Projections and Rankings

I know I'm probably missing some players from the initial transfer from fangraphs, so if you notice any glaring emissions, let me know.

I haven't started my pitcher projections up, but now that I have a general idea of what I'm doing, I think I should be able to get those up by the end of the month. I also am going to try to figure out how to make the spreadsheet sortable to make it easier to compare based on individual projected stats.

For anyone who wants to take a shot at creating their own projections, I have a version of the spreadsheet with absolutely none of my own tweaks. You simply open it up, project each players plate appearances and BABIPs and the spreadsheet will create projections based on those numbers. You can also tweak FB%, HR/FB, K%, BB%, runs, RBIs, and SB in order to personalize your projections even more (you will absolutely have to do this with younger players in order to get a decent projection). If you have any questions about any of that feel free to ask in here or send me a PM and I'll be happy to help.

2012 Make Your Own Projections!

Other useful information:
Projected Lineups
Cafe Mock Draft Results (currently in progress)

I hope people find some of this useful, it took quite a bit of time and effort, but I enjoyed doing it. If you have any ideas for other things I can add or ways to improve my projections, I'd love to hear them. I'll keep updating and adding to this thread as I get pitcher projections done and tweak my batter rankings. If people end up finding this useful, and would like to contribute, my paypal e-mail is mgmarinakis@gmail.com. I didn't do this expecting to get anything out of it so nobody should feel obligated. Seeing as how this is my first time, I don't really even know how well of a job I did, so any feedback you can leave (be it positive or negative) would be greatly appreciated.
Last edited by GiantsFan14 on Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:46 am, edited 12 times in total.
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby J35J » Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:22 am

Nicely done! Much props for all the hard work! ;-D
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:23 am

Can't wait to look it over ;-D
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby Element » Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:38 am

Very cool.Thanks for sharing!
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:02 am

Looks like you put a lot of work into this, but more importantly, a lot of good work. I'll have a look at it when I get home, seems like it'll be pretty useful.

And for players that don't have 3 full seasons, you could use MLEs although you will probably only have basic stats and not batted ball data for minor leaguers. To account for incline and decline in numbers depending on age, you could incorporate an aging curve, but that's a lot of work as each stat kinda has its own curve. Overall it looks really good.
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby Broncmet724 » Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:39 am

Looks interesting, seems like you put a lot of work in it this year.
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby silverZ » Tue Jan 17, 2012 12:11 pm

Can't wait to look it over. ^_^
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby ayebatter » Tue Jan 17, 2012 12:23 pm

Very nice ;-D
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Jan 17, 2012 4:43 pm

That'll do pig ;-D
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Re: Giantsfan14's Projections, Rankings, and More!

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Tue Jan 17, 2012 4:55 pm

Whenever I start to think I know a lot / put a lot of time into fantasy baseball, I read something like this and it's a great reality check.

Nice work :)
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