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Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

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Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby Saltydog » Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:59 pm

According to High Heat Stats.

I'm gonna turn this one over to the Cafe.


http://highheatstats.blogspot.com/2012/01/systematically-finding-overrated.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Andy's recent series on under-appreciated players left me wondering if there was a systematic way to find under and overrated players. In theory if we would could compare every player's perceived value to his actual value, we would have the information we need to do a complete evaluation of the players whose value and reputation we worlds apart. Fortunately Baseball-Reference.com has both objective and subjective rankings.

WAR is the Baseball-Reference.com attempt to use a single value to rate each player. All aspects of the game are taken into account and there is no room for opinion or popularity in creating these rankings. It is completely objective.

Conversely, the EloRater from that site is subjective. Readers are asked to compare two players and determine who was better. The results of all votes are then combined to create a list of greatest players. While player stats are used in this process clearly the results of these comparisons are based on perceptions and reflect the regard in which players are held.

Comparing these two numbers, would then provide us with the information we are looking for. Players who do much better in the EloRater then their WAR would suggest are overrated, while those who do much worse would be underrated.

For example, as of this writing Joe Carter has earned 1873 points in the EloRater, which is the 279th best among retired position players. Meanwhile his career WAR is 16.5 which is the 822nd best. This tells us that he is ranked 279-822= 543 places above where he should be, which is quite an overrating of his value.
In fact, Carter is the 6th most overrated retired position player in baseball history.

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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby MashinSpuds » Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:11 pm

Hmm, didn't know he was even rated, never mind overrated. :-?
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby MasterX1918 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 2:49 pm

I feel like moments of glory can make a player great, or greater than others at least. Joe Carter's walk off homerun to win the Jays the 93 world series immediately moves him up a couple slots on my list regardless of any statistical flaws. There's certain things statistics can't take into account.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 16, 2012 4:27 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:I feel like moments of glory can make a player great, or greater than others at least. Joe Carter's walk off homerun to win the Jays the 93 world series immediately moves him up a couple slots on my list regardless of any statistical flaws. There's certain things statistics can't take into account.

Those moments make them more memorable, not really greater. Some of the things that Bo Jackson did on a baseball field will make him a legend, but he never really reached the level of being a great player. Joe Carter takes that same concept and pushes it even further. He had some moments that will be memorable forever and he had some statistics that made him seem like a great player. But he really wasn't as good as people will remember him nor as good as those stats made him look.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:46 pm

I used to have a Dante Bichette hologram baseball card from Denny's.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby thedude » Mon Jan 16, 2012 7:07 pm

Bichette had some good years with the Rockies, but I think that most people during Bichette's prime realized he was a product of Coors Field.

He did have a pretty sweet home run trot though.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby kab21 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 8:29 pm

That list really isn't a surprise. It contains a lot of guys that played 1B/OF and hit HR's with a BA and didn't walk a lot. Even today with all of the advanced stats these guys are still overvalued.

but it is strange how your evaluation criteria change but your perceptions of players from your youth doesn't change unless you're actively researching them. I was barely a teenage when Carter was a WS hero and I considered him a pretty good player at the time. But the standard criteria used were BA, HR and RBI printed on baseball cards.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:17 pm

product of Coor Field, and Mile High which was also used by the Rockies.
Coors career- 397 G/ 1619 AB - .358/.394/.641/1.035
Mile High career- 126 G/ 501 AB - .363/ .398/ .633/ 1.031

and Cinergy Field in Cincinnati? also a hitters park.
career- 94 G/ 348 AB - .322/ .376/ .549/ .925

Fenway?
career - 86 G/ 332 AB - .298/.319/.509/.828

he has benefited from playing in hitters parks.


personally I don't think Joe Carter is "overrated". he did his job, which was to drive in runs. 16 seasons, 10 season with 100+ RBI, plus another season which he finished at 98.
I wouldn't consider him a Hall Of Fame player, but he still did his job well.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:38 pm

Joe Carter had a 100 RBI season and played below replacement level (negative VORP, back when that was 'the' stat). He wasn't a great player by any means.
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Re: Dante Bichette is the most overrated player of all time

Postby BigLebowski » Mon Jan 16, 2012 11:45 pm

bigh0rt wrote:I used to have a Dante Bichette hologram baseball card from Denny's.



I still have one of those somewhere.
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