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Ivan Nova

Postby wvufan1988 » Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:25 pm

Sorry in advance if this doesn't belong in this forum

What do you guys think of Ivan Nova for 2012? Will he regress as much as people are saying? I see some predictions calling for an ERA of 4.00 and maybe higher
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Re: Ivan Nova

Postby Element » Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:37 pm

I really like Nova's stuff from a baseball standpoint. Mid 90's power sinker, good size, etc. However he doesn't miss enough bats to be a real fantasy force, IMO. Pitching in the AL East is tough. I think that an ERA around 4.00 sounds about right to me. I have him for 15 wins, 3.90/1.29/125.
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Re: Ivan Nova

Postby wvufan1988 » Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:44 pm

I think 3.90 seems reasonable, but I have read things that say an ERA north of 4.00. So he's worth a flyer with a team with a solid rotation because of his win potential you think or stay away?
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Re: Ivan Nova

Postby Element » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:00 pm

wvufan1988 wrote:I think 3.90 seems reasonable, but I have read things that say an ERA north of 4.00. So he's worth a flyer with a team with a solid rotation because of his win potential you think or stay away?


A flyer? Sure. I would prefer to take someone with some K potential though. Maybe take look in the latter parts of a deeper draft, but I don't see a ton of upside outside of the wins.
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Re: Ivan Nova

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:25 pm

IP limit leagues stifle him cause his K/9 stinks. I think he'll be lucky to keep his ERA under 4 but he may win a lot of games regardless. Not a guy I typically want on my fantasy team.
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Re: Ivan Nova

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:37 pm

bigh0rt wrote:IP limit leagues stifle him cause his K/9 stinks. I think he'll be lucky to keep his ERA under 4 but he may win a lot of games regardless. Not a guy I typically want on my fantasy team.


This.

Nova has the benefit of pitching for the Yankees, so if he can stay in the game long enough he should get a good amount of wins. But his lack of K's make him irrelevant for fantasy purposes in all but the deepest of leagues.
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Re: Ivan Nova

Postby thedude » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:49 pm

Nova had a pretty lousy strikeout to walk ratio, so a regression certainly should be expected. Zips projections have Nova at 178.3 IP with a 4.44 ERA and 111 strikeouts.

I would not count on him being more than a league average pitcher, with few strikeouts but a good amount of wins.
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