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2012 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Final Update - 3/28/12

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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:16 am

Since it came up in this post and I noticed it again in Giantfan's rankings, I think people are assigning Braun's value incorrectly here. You don't project him for 112 games and set his value at that number because you are going to get 50 games of production from someone else. It is a controlled set of games off. His value should be 112 games of his stats + 50 games of replacement level OF - Value you assign to a roster spot for 50 games(which is always less than a replacement level player who is in your lineup). He is being undervalued in almost every list I've seen put out there.

The value people are assigning him is the value he has in a league like the pond scum league where there is no bench so you have to just take 50 games of no production at all to own him.
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby badboy » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:11 pm

I sent you a donation last night---Thanks agan Rookies & Cream--I appreicate all your hard work!! ;-D

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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:16 pm

Ender wrote:Since it came up in this post and I noticed it again in Giantfan's rankings, I think people are assigning Braun's value incorrectly here. You don't project him for 112 games and set his value at that number because you are going to get 50 games of production from someone else. It is a controlled set of games off. His value should be 112 games of his stats + 50 games of replacement level OF - Value you assign to a roster spot for 50 games(which is always less than a replacement level player who is in your lineup). He is being undervalued in almost every list I've seen put out there.

The value people are assigning him is the value he has in a league like the pond scum league where there is no bench so you have to just take 50 games of no production at all to own him.


ya i noticed that when i was scanning over my projections today and fixed it.
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:53 am

The real trick of course is figuring out how much a roster spot is worth for 50 games, that is just going to have to be a gut instinct type of decision I guess. I know I hate drafting guys who lock up a roster spot because they don't play every day yet etc.
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby kab21 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:26 am

there are a lot of factors that will determine Braun's value. One is how much bench you have. Another is the value of each bench spot (some leagues practically require every bench spot for SP'ers). Another is depth of the league. If you're forced to start Franklin Gutierrez during his suspension then it might hurt a little. I'll start considering Braun in the late 3rd I think if it's the right league.
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby WaCougMBS » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:17 pm

Should be a donation coming your way in the near future - in the meantime, thanks for this RC ;-D
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:13 pm

updated ;-D
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 2/4/12

Postby reiser » Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:02 pm

who has Mock Auctions?
Mock Draft Central?
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Verminator » Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:13 pm

J35J wrote:
Verminator wrote:Ryan Braun is a 2nd rounder when you KNOW which 50 games he is missing! Much more valuable than Nelson Cruz when you DON'T KNOW which 50 games he is missing. Ryan Braun + Replacement Player = Great Value... I will jump all over that.

Yup, this is very key. You hear a guy will only get 400-450AB and you're thinking...no thanks. But if you know exactly when those ABs will come then it negates a lot of that problem since you can have someone else in for the time being. With that said, I still probably won't own him.


I've rethought this a bit. As reliable as Braun has been, the possibility exists that he could get hurt and you would lose additional production out of him. I am thinking this would still not deter me from drafting him in the 2nd round because we would have projected him with a full compliment of ABs without significant time off due to injury based on when he is eligible to play, suspension or no suspension.
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Re: 2012 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 2/4/12

Postby jk.hay30 » Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:26 pm

Am I mistaken or Is there usually an option to break this down into Tiers?
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