ComBUSTible: Avoiding 2012 Land Mines

[WebHamster]

Much figurative ink is spilled each year trying to find top fantasy sleepers, but there’s a facet of draft preparation much more integral to success: avoiding busts at the top of the draft and with your big-ticket auction buys. Think about it — even if you don’t draft the best sleepers heading into the season, [...]

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2012 ... stible.php

[Pogotheostrich]

Nice job.

Is no one even a little worried about Kemp? I have him in a keeper and I can't forget about 2010. Did he take a step forward last year or was he just lucky?

[bigh0rt]

Nice job.

Is no one even a little worried about Kemp? I have him in a keeper and I can't forget about 2010. Did he take a step forward last year or was he just lucky?

I worry about anybody who has the major piece of their value being so high being tied into them stealing 40 bases. If he's slowed even a tiny bit, his value takes a sharp plummet. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, though.

- I'm not worried about Granderson at all.
- I'm a beWeaver. Two consecutive years of pitching at an excellent level, and while there may be regression, I actually feel like he's a guy I'm comfortable drafting at SP and having high expectations of.

Nice article.

[mkultra]

I'm amazed to see Longoria going in the first round. You're basically buying his September and upside while trying to forget his injury, batting average, and lack of speed. Could he put up First-Round numbers? Sure, but I think he's got a red flag as big as Ellsbury or Verlander.

[Pogotheostrich]

I think some of the concern about Weaver is his velocity. Some people just don't think you can consistantly be that good and K that many throwing 90 mph.

[bigh0rt]

I think some of the concern about Weaver is his velocity. Some people just don't think you can consistantly be that good and K that many throwing 90 mph.

The only real spike year in K/9 was 2010. He was back to being a 7 and change K/9 guy last year. He's a guy who has performed well below his xFIP 3 seasons running, which leads me to believe that the way he gets batters out just isn't being reflected appropriately in those metrics. If he continues to use the array of pitches in his arsenal and put them where he wants, he'll keep motoring. Even at a 7.5 K/9, I see him as a Top 10 SP unless he gets injured. Figure a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and with the addition of Pujols to the lineup, 15 Wins all being on the relatively conservative side?

[daullaz]

Nice job.

Is no one even a little worried about Kemp? I have him in a keeper and I can't forget about 2010. Did he take a step forward last year or was he just lucky?

I wouldn't take Kemp No. 1, if that's what you're asking. I definitely trust Cabrera and Pujols more with the No. 1 overall pick.

[Paws]

I total agree about Ellsbury. Wouldn't supprise me to see home runs drop. Unfortunately I have him in a keeper league.

[GiantsFan14]

I total agree about Ellsbury. Wouldn't supprise me to see home runs drop. Unfortunately I have him in a keeper league.

i wouldn't call that unfortunate, even if the home runs drop (which they will), he's still incredibly valuable and a early second round pick at worst.

[kab21]

If I thought Ellsbury was going to hit like he did in 2011 then I would take him #1/2 with Kemp. Picking him at the end of the first rd is expecting regression.