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Multiple homer games stats

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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:27 am

If you are subscribed to B-R you can use the play index to get the list of every player to hit 2 or more HRs in the last X seasons. Like I was saying before though, the players that accomplish it the most often are the ones that are among the league leaders in total HRs.
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby tinylund » Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:44 pm

It is a money league with 10-12 teams, everytime one of your players hits multiple HRs in a game you get $5 from every other team - $45 to $55 bonus scratch is worth the extra effort. If you trying to decide between two players with similar 5x5 numbers in the draft, and I can see from the past 3-5 years stats, one consistently has 3 multi homer games a season and the other has never had a multi hr game - who are you going to pick?

It maybe be a waste of time, the players that I might have to decide between may end up with similar multi HR games too, I don't know.

I got in the league last year and got killed on the bonus bombs, so I was trying to at least break even or get into the black if I could this season. I tied for 1st in the 5x5 roto stats, but lost $70 on the bonus.
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:56 pm

tinylund wrote:It is a money league with 10-12 teams, everytime one of your players hits multiple HRs in a game you get $5 from every other team - $45 to $55 bonus scratch is worth the extra effort. If you trying to decide between two players with similar 5x5 numbers in the draft, and I can see from the past 3-5 years stats, one consistently has 3 multi homer games a season and the other has never had a multi hr game - who are you going to pick?

I understand why you are wanting to see the numbers, I'm just saying that having looked at them already you aren't missing much. There really isn't much consistency other than the big HR hitters are the most consistent at multi-HR games and even then they are up and down from season to season. If you think it is worth the money and time, then you should drop $6 on a month subscription (or $2 for a day which might be all you need) to B-R's play index and take a look at the stats. The information it can pull is pretty amazing.
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:00 pm

tinylund wrote:It is a money league with 10-12 teams, everytime one of your players hits multiple HRs in a game you get $5 from every other team - $45 to $55 bonus scratch is worth the extra effort. If you trying to decide between two players with similar 5x5 numbers in the draft, and I can see from the past 3-5 years stats, one consistently has 3 multi homer games a season and the other has never had a multi hr game - who are you going to pick?

It maybe be a waste of time, the players that I might have to decide between may end up with similar multi HR games too, I don't know.

I got in the league last year and got killed on the bonus bombs, so I was trying to at least break even or get into the black if I could this season. I tied for 1st in the 5x5 roto stats, but lost $70 on the bonus.
I'd probably end up just focusing my draft on power hitters in general, then. Get as many big boppers as possible early and often. I know this isn't some revolutionary tactic, and I'm sure you've already considered it. I just think the 'skill' of hitting multiple HR in a game isn't something that can be analyzed statistically with the intent of making a decisions going forward of one player vs. another. If you get the data, though, I'd love for you to share it if it ends up not being the case. ;-D
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:38 pm

Here is your top 7 from 2009-2011 plus their total HR rank during that time period.

1. Albert Pujols - 19 - (1st in total HR)
2. Jose Bautista - 13 - (5th)
3. Mark Teixeira - 12 - (4th)
4. Ryan Howard - 11- (6th)
5. Prince Fielder - 10 - (2nd)
6. Mark Reynolds - 10 - (3rd)
7. Curtis Ganderson - 10 - (11th)

Pujols had 10 multi-HR games in 2009 and 3 in 2011.
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby tinylund » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:10 pm

Exactly my point - just looking at the top 7, what are their ADP? How far up the draft board does M Reynolds move up when you consider that he averages 3 multi HR games a year at an extra $150 bonus. Or if you are deciding between Pujols and Fielder - Pulols averages 3 more multi HR games a year over the last 3 yrs, then anything over 6 is gravy. :-D
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:34 pm

tinylund wrote:Exactly my point - just looking at the top 7, what are their ADP? How far up the draft board does M Reynolds move up when you consider that he averages 3 multi HR games a year at an extra $150 bonus. Or if you are deciding between Pujols and Fielder - Pulols averages 3 more multi HR games a year over the last 3 yrs, then anything over 6 is gravy. :-D

Pujols had 10 in 2009 and 3 in 2011. Reynolds has hit the 3rd most HRs over the timespan shown. If you are wanting to win the extra money for multi-HR games I don't blame you. But there is no specific multi-HR skill or aptitude possessed by players. How many multi-HR games they have in the past doesn't have any bearing on how many they will have in the future. Just go after big power guys and take your chances. It is sort of like trying to predict who will throw a no-hitter. I wouldn't bump Dallas Braden up my list because he has thrown one in the past.
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:55 pm

tinylund wrote:Exactly my point - just looking at the top 7, what are their ADP? How far up the draft board does M Reynolds move up when you consider that he averages 3 multi HR games a year at an extra $150 bonus. Or if you are deciding between Pujols and Fielder - Pulols averages 3 more multi HR games a year over the last 3 yrs, then anything over 6 is gravy. :-D
Again, your best bet is just trying to load up on as many HR as possible overall. The more they hit over the course of a season, the more likely they are to hit more than one in a particular game. I wouldn't let the past influence my decision on whether it'll happen in the future.
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Re: Multiple homer games stats

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:06 pm

If you want to project for it, you can come up with an equation that predicts multi homer games based on HR totals. It's probably a fairly linear curve so it wouldn't be that hard. Quick and dirty way would be to take HR and divide by 10. Or just count HR twice as two separate categories. Or count 20% of (hr total - 20) or something along those lines to weight it more towards players with more HR. they're so rare that I wouldn't get too carried away with it though.
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