PlayingWithFire wrote:I don't know why everybody is so sure about Rendon. Star college 3B playing with injury problem Jr. year, underperform and drop in the draft? I think I've heard that story before except with the name of Pedro Alvarez. I'm not saying Rendon won't be good. But let's see some pro data before we group him in with Bryce Harper and Matt Moore of the world.
As far as the pick goes it's really up to your personal preference. I'm personally not a huge fan of Gerritt Cole solely because I have no faith in the Pirates development program. Hultzen seems like a low(er) upside overdraft at 2 but Seattle does offer the best park here to pitch in. Bauer is one of my favorite of the top 6 group(and there's significant difference between the top 6 and the rest of the draft class. Similar to the top 3 last year.) Bauer is still fighting some pretty serious command problems but he made it to AA after signing and besides his last start, did pretty well there. You may not like the small frame in which case I completely understand. Of the 2 HS arms I actually prefer Archie Bradley from articles I've read and videos I've seen. Bradley has a good frame, good fastball and a curveball that can be plus. Bundy is no slouch either but pitching prospects in the AL East always scares me due to the competition they'll face when they come up. I see no reason to draft Bubba Starling what so ever. Very good athlete, but very raw playing in KS. It will take awhile for him to come up and we don't know how his tools will translate in pro ball until we see some data. Rendon is not bad, good contact hitter and great eye with above average power potential as well as being the guy that might be up first. I just don't think it's an open and shut case that Rendon is the best of the bunch.
Is trading down an option? If so I would try and see if you can trade down to about 4-5(the only guy I really don't like is Starling) and get something valuable out of it.
Edit: I haven't been here for a while. What's this "bases this season" thing?
I was thinking about that comparison for Rendon as well. I just didn't know if I was missing something. I have been surprised at how many people are high on Rendon. It seems like the pitchers around him have more upside and less risk then Rendon. I am not sure I would be that worried about the Pirates system with Cole, they have only recently started drafting well and have had some success with those they have drafted.
The bases info: viewtopic.php?t=437180
I think the major difference between Alvarez and Rendon (we can only compare college stats as Rendon hasn't played in pros yet) is the plate discipline:
If you compare Alvarez's Vanderbilt stats:http://www.soxprospects.com/players/alvarez-pedro.htm
his K rate was 1:1 or higher in all 3 years... not an indication of how horrible it would become in pro ball, but he did strike out about 25% of the time (improved it to 17% in quite a few less ABs in 08 Sr year)
Rendons college stats:http://www.riceowls.com/auto_pdf/p_hoto ... sonWrap#00
A 176 BB to 78 K ratio over 682 ABs (11.4% K rate) thats insanely good!
I think this plate discipline will be a huge plus for Rendon to not fall off the cliff BA wise when he arrives unlike Alvarez.