I am in a 16 team keeper league with standard roto scoring (Avg, HR, RBI, SB, R, W, K, ERA, WHIP, SV). We keep 6 players from the previous year and the draft is a normal draft based on previous year's finish. I tanked the last 2 months of the season to secure the first draft position this year. Which of these players would you keep going into next year? I put an asterisk next to the players I am thinking of keeping. Please provide a brief explanation of why you are choosing another player or why you disagree with one of my choices. Thank you ahead of time and link me to your question and I will help you out as well.
Mike Aviles Darwin Barney Shin-Soo Choo Adrian Gonzalez* Jason Heyward Chipper Jones Miguel Olivo Jhonny Peralta Martin Prado Mike Trout* Dan Uggla* Will Venable Delmon Young
Madison Bumgarner* Aaron Harang Mat Latos* Ted Lilly Ricky Nolasco Jon Rauch Anibal Sanchez Jonathan Sanchez Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg*
When I was looking at those six I was trying to see who wouldn't make the cut so he could keep Heyward and it would've had to be Uggla, but I'd have a real tough time if Heyward continued his struggles from last year. If he shows the growth we expected however, I guess I'd be kicking myself even harder for kicking him back into the pool.
I would go with your 6 guys but swap out Heyward or maybe even Chop for Trout. I think it's a year early on him and you should be able to get him back in the draft if you want. He doesn't appear to have a clear shot at playing time or even making the team out of spring training.
raiders_umpire wrote:Adrian Gonzalez* Jason Heyward Mike Trout*
Madison Bumgarner* Mat Latos* Stephen Strasburg*
I don't think you can afford to throw Heyward back with your team. He has way too much talent and you definitely need some offense that hopefully he can provide.
Agree with this. I'd go with the high upside guys. Also, worst case, having the 1st overall pick gets you the best dropped player. If no one else drops anyone of any substance, you get Uggla back in the draft. I wouldn't want to give up on the young talent in a 16 team league. If you drop one, you're going to have a hard time ever getting them back.
I think you have to keep Uggla along with AGonzo. After that you can have a debate. Your staff is not going to wow anyone with Bumgarner, Latos and Strasburg (at least not on paper from a trade value perspective...not yet at least). Really, you can take any two of those 3 SPs and throw them back and speculate all you like on Heyward and Choo and Trout imo. You can probably pick up decent SPs in the draft that will give you similar numbers to what they will put up. All three are ranked in the 80-120 range overall so keeping 96 in your league they are just stradling the line of keeper worthiness and in theory can be replaced as such by SPs of similar value. Of course the hitters in debate are pretty much in the same range. Choo is probably the highest ranked one of the lot and slightly better at 60-80 overall maybe but presents a risk like Heyward. Heyward is probably not as safe a pick. Bumgarner is a safe pick. Trout is a gamble but someone will usually overpay for unproven talent in a keeper. I would not keep three pitchers out of 6 with this lot in a deep league. Pitching is easier to replace than hitting. Who you want to keep though on the pitching side is really one of personal preference.
Me personnaly, I saw enough crummy play from Heyward to not like what I saw. I would rather gamble on Choo, who was bothered more by injuries last season and is supposed to be 100% going into 2012 but that is not saying much of course. I think you basically are going for broke if you keep both Strasburg and Trout (could win big or lose big). I would deal one in a package for an upgrade if possible to cut down on the risk and lock in the current value in a keeper. That is of course a lot easier to say than to do usually.
I certainly appreciate all of the responses up until this point. There are some wide ranging view points for sure. I do have the first pick so I can technically keep 7 if I go that route. I was a bit surprised to hear that this team is that bad. I thought with a good draft I could finish top 5, but I agree that I am relying a lot on young talent which can be tricky. I made two trades last year to get some of those players. They were as follows:
I traded: Jon Lester Brennan Boesch Andre Ethier
I got: Madison Bumgarner Dan Uggla Stephen Strasburg Aaron Harang
I traded: James Shields
I got: Jhonny Peralta
Would you have made those trades? My thinking was to obtain players at premium spots. My final keepers at that point were going to potentially be: 1B Gonzalez, 2B Uggla, 3B Prado, SS Peralta, SP Strasburg, SP Bumgarner. I wasn't big on Shields as I think he's due to regress quite a bit, but I think I could have gotten more for him now that I think a little more about it. I also thought Lester and Ethier were regressing.