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Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

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Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby KoolPapaBell » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:19 am

I am in a roto 5*5 (OBP instead of AVG) league, with salaries and contracts and minor league rosters.

We are approaching the prospect draft, and I have been offered Brandon Belt for my first round pick (either 7 or 8 overall).

I would have to promote Belt this offseason, and (like all promoted minor leaguers) he would have a $0 contract for 2012, and then a lot of escalated contract options after that (for instance, $9 for 2013 and 2014, or $13 for 2013, 2014, and 2015).

(For comparison purposes, in this league's last auction Pujols went for $40+, Teix $30, J.Upton $26, BJ Upton $10).

It's a pretty shallow league, but we do start about 45 outfielders.

I like Belt a lot, but I don't trust the Giants to play him enough this year (with Huff and sometimes Posey still at 1B, and Melky, Pagan, Schierholtz in the OF).

The player in the draft I think I would be missing out on is probably either Dylan Bundy or Danny Hultzen, or maybe a slight reach like Josh Bell or Leonys Martin.

Finally, the last thing i have to consider is how likely Belt is to keep his OF eligibility after this year. Is he a lock to play 20 games in the OF this year? He loses value if he's only a CI in 2013.

Thanks for any advice.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby MaudDib » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:36 am

I don't think I would do it. It isn't because this is a bad deal, but I just don't have much faith in Belt as being anything more than a marginal MLB regular.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby ensanimal » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:12 am

I'm not a big Belt fan so I would hold onto the draft pick.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:24 pm

Keep the draft pick. You can most likely use it to get someone better than Belt.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:28 pm

I'd take Belt. Prospects are anything but a sure thing and Belt provides decent value right now. He's also more valuable in an OBP league. I think there's a decent chance he gets 20 games in the OF last year as I'm pretty sure Huff can't handle it and they'll want to get Belt in the line up. I agree about not trusting the Giants to give him full playing time, but if Huff or Schierholtz struggle to start the season, I think even the Giants will make sure Belt gets in the line up.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby raiders_umpire » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:29 pm

I would probably keep the pick.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby ayebatter » Mon Jan 02, 2012 2:54 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:I'd take Belt. Prospects are anything but a sure thing and Belt provides decent value right now. He's also more valuable in an OBP league. I think there's a decent chance he gets 20 games in the OF last year as I'm pretty sure Huff can't handle it and they'll want to get Belt in the line up. I agree about not trusting the Giants to give him full playing time, but if Huff or Schierholtz struggle to start the season, I think even the Giants will make sure Belt gets in the line up.


Gotta agree with GF here, make the trade for Belt. ;-D
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:24 am

If you could get Dylan Bundy or Josh Bell with that pick, even though I am a Belt fan I'd probably have to take one of those two. If your league rewards patience over the long term, those guys are a long way off but their ceilings are stratospheric.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby Tejan0 » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:47 am

I would wait till closer to your draft day as your pick may carry more value. It also depends on the options you currently have. Belt could be a nice player, but after Giants traded for Melky that almost assured he would be in minors this year or traded for something that could help them now. If you can wait till your pick is on the clock, I would wait because I would definitely take Hultzen IF he is even available. i sincerely doubt it though.
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Re: Brandon Belt or a draft pick?

Postby KoolPapaBell » Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:08 am

Well, I will likely pick 7 or 8. I imagine the first 6 will probably go (in some order): Rendon, Darvish, Bauer, Cole, Cespedes, Starling. That means that even if I end up 8 there will be at least two of Hultzen, Bundy, and Bell.

The league rewards patience fine, but I also have a group of keepers that put me as a favorite to compete this year.

That said, in a league that starts 40-45 OFs, (even in an OBP league), Belt doesn't project to be a huge value right now. I guess I'd be better off taking the pick and trading it during the year for a more valuable MLB piece.
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