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Which 5 keepers in Auction League?(WHIR)

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Re: Which 5 keepers in Auction League?(WHIR)

Postby ensanimal » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:16 am

1B-Miggy(1)-$46
OF-Gardner-(1)-$16
OF-Chris Young(2)-$11(If kept would be $16)
BN-Morrison(1)-$4
BN-Trout(1)-$3


I would hold onto the cheap young talent so you have extra $$ to go after some of the bigger names in the auction.
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Re: Which 5 keepers in Auction League?(WHIR)

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:04 pm

MaudDib wrote:As another note, there is no way I would spend $3 on Bard. He has shown no ability to handle the SP job and imagine he will be out of the job almost immediately if not before the season starts.


That is a BIG assumption there. What are you basing this statement off of? His 2007 Single A numbers? That was years ago and Bard has dramatically improved almost everything in his game since then. IMO the worst case scenario is an IP cap at 150-160 innings.

And with the combined things of the Red Sox lacking SP depth plus all the media buzz/criticism about Bard going to the rotation, there is no way they remove him immediately. He would have to totally blow for all of April for them to take him out of the rotation. And the only way he doesn't make the rotation before the season is if he gets injured.

In a 15 team league like this, I'm fairly certain Bard will go for more than $3 at auction.
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Re: Which 5 keepers in Auction League?(WHIR)

Postby MaudDib » Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:03 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:
MaudDib wrote:As another note, there is no way I would spend $3 on Bard. He has shown no ability to handle the SP job and imagine he will be out of the job almost immediately if not before the season starts.


That is a BIG assumption there. What are you basing this statement off of? His 2007 Single A numbers? That was years ago and Bard has dramatically improved almost everything in his game since then. IMO the worst case scenario is an IP cap at 150-160 innings.

And with the combined things of the Red Sox lacking SP depth plus all the media buzz/criticism about Bard going to the rotation, there is no way they remove him immediately. He would have to totally blow for all of April for them to take him out of the rotation. And the only way he doesn't make the rotation before the season is if he gets injured.

In a 15 team league like this, I'm fairly certain Bard will go for more than $3 at auction.


I don't think it is that big of an assumption that he won't be in the rotation out of spring training. There is one spot open for the Red Sox rotation (unless I missed something or an injury occurs between now and opening day) so he has very little room for mistakes. Bard hasn't started a game since 2007 and that was single A. Maybe he will go higher than $3 and maybe he will be worth it just for the numbers he will give you as a reliever but as a starter he has shown no reason to believe in him at this point. And in the fact that he has better, more reliable keepers at similar value than it makes it even easier for me to pass. Morrison is worth a lot more than $4 in a 15 team league. OF is hard enough to fill in a shallow league and he still has upside on what he did last year.
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Re: Which 5 keepers in Auction League?(WHIR)

Postby Urban Cohorts » Tue Jan 03, 2012 1:51 pm

MaudDib wrote:I don't think it is that big of an assumption that he won't be in the rotation out of spring training. There is one spot open for the Red Sox rotation (unless I missed something or an injury occurs between now and opening day) so he has very little room for mistakes.


The only locks for the rotation are Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz. There are two remaining spots to fill. The candidates are Miller (Awful), Felix Doubront, Bowden, Aceves (who Cherington does not want to use as a starter) and Bard. Dice-K is out for at least half a season and Lackey is out for all of 2012.

Bard will prepare for spring training as a starter. We want to give him every chance to do that,” GM Ben Cherington said.


So, yes, I think it is a pretty big assumption to assume Bard loses out on BOTH spots to garbage like Miller or two prospects. Bowden hasn't started since 2010, was not great as a SP (in the minors) and can't pitch effectively in MLB as a reliever. Doubront was decent in the minors, but he still needs more time there IMO.

Bard hasn't started a game since 2007 and that was single A.


Why does this matter at all? Why are you basing Bard's potential success as a SP on a 61 IP A-Ball sample size from 2007? When he was 21/22 years old. If you go by these 61 innings, he doesn't even translate to being a mediocre MLB RP. In fact, he probably doesn't make the majors at all. By this logic, we are all supposed to throw out his actual MLB results?

Look at Brandon Morrow for someone similar. He made a transition from a RP to a SP with limited work in the minors as a starter (and his minor league SP stats were nothing compared to his RP stats). Yet he seems to pitch effectively now, even if his ERA doesn't say so. And he was older than Bard when this all occurred.

Should I assume that Aaron Crow and Chris Sale are going to flop as SP too (two good, young RP, with either no SP experience or limited with bad results)?
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