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Forecaster snubs prospect?

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Forecaster snubs prospect?

Postby pjalst » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:30 pm

I was just looking over the prospect section of my newly received Baseball Forecaster and Noticed that Nolan Arenado was not mentioned or even listed in the Top 100 impact Prospects for 2012. With Arenado's minor league stats and the possibility of him getting the starting job out of spring training, I think this is a definite oversight. I have Arenado in one of my leagues and I can't tell you how many other owners have been trying to offer me deals for him. He is definitely drawning a lot of buzz and I cant see how Shandler overlooked him.
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Re: Forecaster snubs prospect?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:38 pm

pjalst wrote:I was just looking over the prospect section of my newly received Baseball Forecaster and Noticed that Nolan Arenado was not mentioned or even listed in the Top 100 impact Prospects for 2012. With Arenado's minor league stats and the possibility of him getting the starting job out of spring training, I think this is a definite oversight. I have Arenado in one of my leagues and I can't tell you how many other owners have been trying to offer me deals for him. He is definitely drawning a lot of buzz and I cant see how Shandler overlooked him.


As far as I can tell, forcaster does not include any prospects that haven't made it out of A ball. Only prospects that have experience in AA/AAA.
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Re: Forecaster snubs prospect?

Postby cardinal1975 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:26 am

Arrenado is a great prospect and will likely be ranked inside of the top 20 overall prospects by many evaluators. That being said the guy just finished a year in High A ball and while very good is by no means remotely ready to tackle major league pitching. Most scouts/experts will tell you that the biggest adjustments players make is when they go to Double A. Arrenado will be in Colorado at some point in 2013, but to expect him to make the club at any point this year is wildly optimistic even under the best case scenario. I do not see any reason to be offended by this as Colorado has no need to rush Arrenado and is better served by letting him develop at a normal pace so when he does arrive in Denver he stays put. Ask Toronto about agressively promoting prospects like Travis Snider. The player's performance and the coaches evaluations of what the player needs to improve upon is very important as well. There are special cases where talent can override aggressive promotions but those types are the 5 tool types like Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Jason Heyward, and possibly Bryce Harper. Arrenado is a good bat but I doubt many will put him in the same category with the players listed above at this point.

Very few of those players aged 20-21 are ready to contribute full time at the big league level. Be patient and let Arrenado develop normally as it is not a slight for a guy that is young and never made it to Double A to not be expected to make an impact at the major league level by jumping 3 levels. :-)
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Re: Forecaster snubs prospect?

Postby MaudDib » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:16 pm

If you are looking for prospect information, I don't think the forecaster is where you should go. There are a lot better sites or magazines that I would go for information. With prospects, I have a hard time shelling out money for a magazine/book because things change so quickly for them. Hosmer is a great example. Going into the 2010 season, he had come off a bad 2009 season and was on very few lists (depending on how big they were) only to dominate the 2010 season and be in the big leagues fairly quickly in 2011. So if I had bought a book in 2010, I would have missed out on Hosmer.
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Re: Forecaster snubs prospect?

Postby pjalst » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:35 pm

cardinal1975 wrote:Arrenado is a great prospect and will likely be ranked inside of the top 20 overall prospects by many evaluators. That being said the guy just finished a year in High A ball and while very good is by no means remotely ready to tackle major league pitching. Most scouts/experts will tell you that the biggest adjustments players make is when they go to Double A. Arrenado will be in Colorado at some point in 2013, but to expect him to make the club at any point this year is wildly optimistic even under the best case scenario. I do not see any reason to be offended by this as Colorado has no need to rush Arrenado and is better served by letting him develop at a normal pace so when he does arrive in Denver he stays put. Ask Toronto about agressively promoting prospects like Travis Snider. The player's performance and the coaches evaluations of what the player needs to improve upon is very important as well. There are special cases where talent can override aggressive promotions but those types are the 5 tool types like Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Jason Heyward, and possibly Bryce Harper. Arrenado is a good bat but I doubt many will put him in the same category with the players listed above at this point.

Very few of those players aged 20-21 are ready to contribute full time at the big league level. Be patient and let Arrenado develop normally as it is not a slight for a guy that is young and never made it to Double A to not be expected to make an impact at the major league level by jumping 3 levels. :-)



Great information, Thanks.
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