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Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby Fenway Punk » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:26 am

With the line-up the Sox have, it really won't make a shred of difference who's playing RF. Seriously, they can afford to roll Joe Blow Shmoe out there and they will still boast one of baseball's most loaded line-ups.

As a Sox fan, you gotta love this deal. We didn't give up anything that we are going to miss and we acquired something that we needed.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby kab21 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:31 am

The Red Sox needed an 8th and 9th inning guy for the bullpen so they don't regret the Melancon trade. I think it was also time for Lowrie to move on.

You make it sound easy to trade Bard for a good starter but it's pretty difficult to match on these types of trades. The reason that this works in the Sox favor (assuming Bard is reasonably successful) is that Bard + Melancon + Bailey = 5ish M. A guy like Edwin Jackson is probably going to cost 10-12M/yr with a multi year commitment that could Lackey the Red Sox again.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:54 am

IF Bard is successful as a starter is a big IF. since it's been a while since he has started a game, and the last time he did start games in the minors he was terrible.. what would make one think he could be successful now as a starter? I would say it's a lot more likely he would completely fail as a starter and even with the Red Sox offense I think Bard would lose them games. IMO it's no a matter of if Bard fails, but when he fails. then once he does fail, you simply move him back to the bullpen? even doing that it could mess with his head and he might never be the same all season.
I would think based on the numbers Bard has had as a reliever that there would be teams out there willing to trade for him and make him their closer. even if they don't want to trade him wouldn't it be better to still use him in the bullpen? you could have Bailey in the 9th to close, and then Bard/Melancon in the 7th/8th. make the game shorter with a great back of the bullpen.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby kab21 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:37 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:IF Bard is successful as a starter is a big IF. since it's been a while since he has started a game, and the last time he did start games in the minors he was terrible.. what would make one think he could be successful now as a starter? I would say it's a lot more likely he would completely fail as a starter and even with the Red Sox offense I think Bard would lose them games. IMO it's no a matter of if Bard fails, but when he fails. then once he does fail, you simply move him back to the bullpen? even doing that it could mess with his head and he might never be the same all season.
I would think based on the numbers Bard has had as a reliever that there would be teams out there willing to trade for him and make him their closer. even if they don't want to trade him wouldn't it be better to still use him in the bullpen? you could have Bailey in the 9th to close, and then Bard/Melancon in the 7th/8th. make the game shorter with a great back of the bullpen.


Not when but if he fails would be considered jumping to conclusions. Obviously the Red Sox see something that suggests he can make the jump. And you're talking about a 75 inning sample from 4 yrs ago.

Another way to look at it is that Bard probably has as good or better chance of being successful as the top starter (Jackson) currently on the market. The Red Sox were able to pick up Bailey for a spare part but that's not true if you're looking for a starter. Starters are very difficult to acquire. maybe Bard works out for them, maybe he doesn't. But if it does then it is a huge win for their team.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby J35J » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:45 pm

kab21 wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:IF Bard is successful as a starter is a big IF. since it's been a while since he has started a game, and the last time he did start games in the minors he was terrible.. what would make one think he could be successful now as a starter? I would say it's a lot more likely he would completely fail as a starter and even with the Red Sox offense I think Bard would lose them games. IMO it's no a matter of if Bard fails, but when he fails. then once he does fail, you simply move him back to the bullpen? even doing that it could mess with his head and he might never be the same all season.
I would think based on the numbers Bard has had as a reliever that there would be teams out there willing to trade for him and make him their closer. even if they don't want to trade him wouldn't it be better to still use him in the bullpen? you could have Bailey in the 9th to close, and then Bard/Melancon in the 7th/8th. make the game shorter with a great back of the bullpen.


Not when but if he fails would be considered jumping to conclusions. Obviously the Red Sox see something that suggests he can make the jump. And you're talking about a 75 inning sample from 4 yrs ago.

Another way to look at it is that Bard probably has as good or better chance of being successful as the top starter (Jackson) currently on the market. The Red Sox were able to pick up Bailey for a spare part but that's not true if you're looking for a starter. Starters are very difficult to acquire. maybe Bard works out for them, maybe he doesn't. But if it does then it is a huge win for their team.


Agreed. You gotta give a guy with good stuff the chance in the rotation. The upside of it ,if it works, is so much higher and more important to an organization, than the downside if it fails, IMHO.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby kab21 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:21 pm

J35J wrote:
Agreed. You gotta give a guy with good stuff the chance in the rotation. The upside of it ,if it works, is so much higher and more important to an organization, than the downside if it fails, IMHO.


the downside is that he goes back to the bullpen. yes, they will have a whole in their rotation but it's not like spending megabucks on Lackey (last year) or Jackson is a guarantee for success.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby J35J » Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:51 pm

kab21 wrote:
J35J wrote:
Agreed. You gotta give a guy with good stuff the chance in the rotation. The upside of it ,if it works, is so much higher and more important to an organization, than the downside if it fails, IMHO.


the downside is that he goes back to the bullpen. yes, they will have a whole in their rotation but it's not like spending megabucks on Lackey (last year) or Jackson is a guarantee for success.


Word.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby thedude » Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:54 pm

J35J wrote:
kab21 wrote:
J35J wrote:
Agreed. You gotta give a guy with good stuff the chance in the rotation. The upside of it ,if it works, is so much higher and more important to an organization, than the downside if it fails, IMHO.


the downside is that he goes back to the bullpen. yes, they will have a whole in their rotation but it's not like spending megabucks on Lackey (last year) or Jackson is a guarantee for success.


Word.


I think the Red Sox may still add a starter, whcih means that Bard and Aceves will battle for the 5th spot in the rotation, with the the loser of that battle going back to the pen.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby Cream » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:49 am

They are taking a page out of the Rangers playbook by attempting to convert Bard or Aceves into a starter. It worked in the case of CJ Wilson and Ogando, so why not try with Bard. FWIW, I think Aceves can be just as effective in the 5th spot and would prefer to see Bard in the 7th/8th.
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