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Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:09 pm

Element wrote:How far does Bailey climb up the rankings after this?


i wouldn't move him much. He'll get a few more save opps but I wouldn't be surprised if the the move to the AL east and change in ballparks more than negates that.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby Element » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:11 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Why would he climb up the rankings? He was already a closer in Oakland with as much (or more, probably) job security.


Save opportunities? Before last season Papelbon was a lock for 35-40 saves. The A's have already blown it up for the most part. I'm not suggesting anything monumental, but I would think that he would move up a few ticks.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:17 pm

Element wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Why would he climb up the rankings? He was already a closer in Oakland with as much (or more, probably) job security.


Save opportunities? Before last season Papelbon was a lock for 35-40 saves. The A's have already blown it up for the most part. I'm not suggesting anything monumental, but I would think that he would move up a few ticks.


I don't think there's a huge correlation between wins and save opportunities. I would assume better teams are more likely to win by 4+ runs (meaning no save opportunity), while worse teams are more likely to win by smaller margins (creating a higher percentage of save opportunities when they do win). Sure the better teams will probably end up with a few more opportunities over the course of the season, but in this case I think it's negated by the move in division and ballpark.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby bigken117 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:32 pm

I like a lot, :-)
A healthy Kalish is way better.

There is little correlation between team wins and save opps, just a couple years ago Soria led the league and the Royals suck. That won't stop people from bumping him up from either a little or a lot based on the fact he's closing for a team that should win 90+ games instead of the 60 some you would expect the stripped apart A's to contend for.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:15 pm

Wow, the Sawx will have quite the bullpen once the Bard experiment fails. Late May sound about right?
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby thedude » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:21 pm

Great deal for the Red Sox. Reddick looks like a fourth outfielder. The two prospects did not rank in Sickles top twenty red sox prospects. Bailey has had some injuries, but he is a very good pitcher.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:46 pm

I sure did think Bailey would bring more back in a deal then this. Very good trade for the Sox.
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:57 pm

Inukchuk wrote:Wow, the Sawx will have quite the bullpen once the Bard experiment fails. Late May sound about right?

It's very common for starters to come up as relievers, flourish, and then convert back to starting. I don't know why the presumption is that he's going to fail miserably. For every Joba Chamberlain there's a Johan Santana. Now, personally I'd like to see him fail miserably, but I have no reason to believe he has any more likelihood of doing so than not :-b
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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:33 pm

I know most loathe his commentary, but Cockroft agrees about Bailey's value not budging a ton...

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?id=7397866

The Boston Red Sox's bullpen makeover continued on Wednesday, and unlike their Dec. 14 trade for 2011 closer Mark Melancon, this deal scored them their clear ninth-inning guy for 2012: Andrew Bailey.

According to ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, the Red Sox acquired Bailey, along with outfielder Ryan Sweeney, from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for outfielder Josh Reddick and two Class A prospects: Third baseman Miles Head, 20, and right-hander Raul Alcantara, 19.

Bailey's fantasy value scarcely changes as a result of his move east, other than the obvious instinct that the Red Sox are more likely to win 90 games than the Athletics, meaning a better chance at nightly saves. But the right-hander's numbers didn't exactly suffer as a result of the Athletics winning only 47.3 percent of their games (230 of 486) during his time there; he saved 74 games, 15th-best in the majors, in his three seasons with the team. Pacing his performance per 162 team games, Bailey has averaged exactly 30 saves per season.

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Re: Bailey dealt to Red Sox for Reddick

Postby Saltydog » Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:48 pm

Might as well have 3-4 potential closers on reserve in case Bailey goes down.

Bard can always go back to the pen.

Jenks, if he wants to grow up and take it seriously can close if needed.

Melancon has the makeup to close.

One more starter would make things a lot more comforting.

I think Aceves and/or Dubront can fill in the Wakefield/Lackey void from '11.
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