2. Ubaldo Jiminez 4. Wandy Rodriguez 1. Yu Darvish 3. Brett Anderson 8. Hiroki Kuroda 9. Ted Lilly 6. Jair Jurrjens 7. Trevor Bauer (dynasty so listing him) 5. Ivan Nova 10. Scott Baker
This is how I see them. I like Darvish and he has the most upside of this group. I couldn't fault someone putting Ubaldo but whatever happened to him last year has me a little worried. I actually like Anderson as much as Darvish but since he will be out at least half the season and it won't be until 2013 that he should be full strength, I would wait on him. Odds are pretty decent in a draft, you could get him behind guys like Jurrjens and Nova but when healthy Anderson has way more upside. Really after Anderson, there is a pretty big drop off for guys I like and Bauer just hasn't been around enough to be very confident in him.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams
Ivan Nova Jair Jurrjens Scott Baker Trevor Bauer (dynasty so listing him) Ted Lilly
Hiroki Kuroda Wandy Rodriguez
I would probably take my chances here with Ubaldo. I think Anderson has the highest ceiling of the group, but he gets injured every single year. Darvish is a wild card. Going to Texas certainly didn't help his value. Arlington has a very hitter friendly stadium, whereas in Japan most parks are much more pitcher friendly with a larger than normal foul territory (think Oakland). I guess I'm more skeptical than most, but I really don't have a ton of faith in Japanese pitchers. Dice K had a few nice seasons, but that was mainly luck based.
I like Ivan Nova more than Jurrjens. A lot of Jurrjens value comes from his win total. He's nothing more than a soft tosser (low/unacceptable K/9) who usually outperforms his underlying stats. Nova is in the same mold I suppose, but he is younger and could still improve his K/9. Nova had decent control in 2011, which was a plus. Doesn't look like anyone special yet. I put Ted Lilly in this group as well. Lilly is a solid, reliable pitcher. He has good control and a good K rate. He also pitches in the NL West, so he can help you come playoff time. His age is not a plus, and you can probably get him late in the draft. Not a bad guy to grab at the end IMO. I like Baker too. He was injured last season, but the guy can pitch. Good K/9, good BB rate, good underlying stats- but for whatever reason his talent just never seems to translate to a good fantasy season.
The last tw0 guys don't impress me much. Wandy has been on the decline for years now. Not sure where either him or Kuroda are going to end up. A pitchers park would be helpful for both.
You're looking for a back-end starter, right? None of these guys are a #1 SP, so this is someone to fill out your rotation, hopefully. That being said, I'm willing to accept a lot of risk in exchange for upside at the back end of the rotation. So:
Ubaldo Jiminez - Has a good mix of track record and upside. As long as you're not banking on him to carry your staff, excellent gamble.
Yu Darvish - he's not Dice-K. That's a lazy comparison. Darvish put up 3 seasons in a row that were better than any 1 of Dice-K's. I don't expect him to be an ace, but a mid 4 ERA and 10-13 wins seems like a pretty reasonable floor.
Brett Anderson - Depends on how many DL spots you have. I'd probably stay away, though.
Trevor Bauer - Might be an aggressive ranking, but Bauer's statistical excellence in college is just as well documented as Darvish's in Japan. In a dynasty league I really would want him over the rest of the listed pitchers.
Honestly the rest of the list you could put in a few different orders depending on what you wanted to emphasize. Wandy would be number 5, but after that.... age and lack of K/9 upside would steer me away from just about all of 'em.
converge241 wrote:Leave comments if you like and/or a link to yours or just rank:
2. Ubaldo Jiminez 3. Wandy Rodriguez 1. Yu Darvish 4. Brett Anderson 6. Hiroki Kuroda 9. Ted Lilly 5. Jair Jurrjens 7. Trevor Bauer (dynasty so listing him) 8. Ivan Nova 10. Scott Baker
That's what I would do. Outside of Darvish, everyone has obvious fleas. Darvish may have them, he may not...he's just the one I'm most willing to take a risk on. I like Wandy as much as Anderson, giving the nod to Wandy just because Anderson's health has burned me more than once. Anderson could go first though due to being younger.