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Beltran to the Cards

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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:52 am

bayside wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
bayside wrote:listening to him over the past several years i get the impression that hes definitely not the kind of guy who is motivated by money first.

:-?
Was said about Pujols too.

ya and Pujols DID sign a below market extension with St Louis

ya and he DIDNT make the mistake to sign such a crap again.
If Cain is smart he learns from others mistakes.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:11 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:If Cain is smart he learns from others mistakes.

since when is it a mistake to play where you really want to play?
and winning a couple championships sure doesnt seem like mistake either. :-?
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:22 am

bayside wrote:
Urban Cohorts wrote: Do the Giants really want to tie up $16-20 million per year in Cain?

yes, of course they do.

they won a championship paying a 6th starter that much money, and if Cain signs an extension, he will be nearly 3 years younger than Zito was at the time of his contract.


Zito wasn't signed as a 6th starter.
Whats the guarantee that Cain doesn't turn into a 6th starter as Zito did?
Why did Zito turned into a 6th starter in the first place?
If you know the answer, tell that to the Giants front office, cause Im sure they wanna know.

They won because they had plenty of great and cheap talent.
Thats not gonna be the case anymore.
Well, so they would have been better off without Zito.
Maybe they should have signed Alfonso Soriano instead?
What makes you think that they sign another pitcher to a huge contract?

bayside wrote:having Cain + Timmy + Bumgarner + Posey + Sandoval all under contract for under 45M/yr would be bargain for such a talented core, and would allow ~ 75M to fill out the rest of the roster.

Is that a dream?
Try 45M/yr for Timmy + Cain after 2012.

I don't believe that they are prepared to pay about 250 million or more for two staters, so either Timmy Franchise or Cain will leave.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:38 am

bayside wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:If Cain is smart he learns from others mistakes.

since when is it a mistake to play where you really want to play?
and winning a couple championships sure doesnt seem like mistake either. :-?

Your argument is flawed.
How do you know where you really wanna play, if you never played for another team?
How you decide where you like to play?
Teammates change, coaches change, team's chances change.
What is constant?
Respect.
Fans.
But if you produce, than fans love you, and you get respect, no matter where you play.
So what makes you decide where you really wanna play?

The Cards offered an extension and he accepted. It had nothing to do with where he likes to play.
He played it safe. Nothing more, nothing less.

Your other argument is flawed too.
When he signed an extension he didnt know that the Cardinals will win 2 championships. "By accident". They never been considered favorites.
They never been considered to play a WS game.
So it had nothing to do with his decision.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Wed Dec 28, 2011 6:26 am

you are just talking in circles and i cant understand most of what you are saying so i wont even argue with you, other than this:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
bayside wrote:
having Cain + Timmy + Bumgarner + Posey + Sandoval all under contract for under 45M/yr would be bargain for such a talented core, and would allow ~ 75M to fill out the rest of the roster.



Is that a dream?
Try 45M/yr for Timmy + Cain after 2012.

first of all i was responding to a question that asked "Do the Giants really want to tie up $16-20 million per year in Cain?
maybe you missed it, or just skipped that part, but the premise was that if extensions are signed, the Giants will be paying at most ~20 mil/year for each of Cain and Lincecum. seems like a pretty reasonable number to me.
so thats 40M.
Posey and Bum are still all pre-arb, and Sandoval is making 500K next yr, so all 3 are scheduled to make less than 2M combined in 2011.
that brings us to 42M for 2012.

i didnt say anything about 2013 or beyond in that statement... but even assuming none of those 3 are signed to extensions, and all 3 go to arb in 2013, they will likely make < 15M combined (and thats a pretty high estimate).
so that would bring the total to ~55M which is still way below market value and a great bargain.in.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:27 am

wow i just reread everything you wrote and it makes even less sense now.

for example you said:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:If Cain is smart he learns from others mistakes.

and by doing so you were implying that Pujols made some huge mistake by signing an extension with the Cards for less than market value.

then i simply pointed out WHY it turned out to NOT be a mistake.

then somehow you went off an a 2 page long rant about some "accident" and Zito vs Alfonso Soriano (really wtf is that?) and arguing about other various points that i never even made.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:37 am

You have to think at this point, the presumption would be that Cain will hit the market and sign a monster contract. Lincecum as well.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:56 am

bayside wrote:wow i just reread everything you wrote and it makes even less sense now.

It makes less sense only to you.

bayside wrote:for example you said:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:If Cain is smart he learns from others mistakes.

and by doing so you were implying that Pujols made some huge mistake by signing an extension with the Cards for less than market value.

I wasn't implying anything. I said that. He made a mistake.

bayside wrote:then i simply pointed out WHY it turned out to NOT be a mistake.

Yah, wrong argument, cos you don't know what would've happened if he'd signed with the Yankees or Red Sox etc...
And you forgot to point out, that whitout Pujols the Cardinals probably would have not won any championships.
So his signing for a lot less than market value didn't turn out to be a HUGE mistake, but a mistake nevertheless.
But heres an example for you to understand:
Teixeria signs for a lot less than market value with the Orioles for sentimental reasons (born in Annapolis, MD), and does not win any championship.
Teixeria signs for maximum value with the Yankees and does win a championship.
Which one is a mistake?


bayside wrote:then somehow you went off an a 2 page long rant about some "accident" and Zito vs Alfonso Soriano (really wtf is that?) and arguing about other various points that i never even made.

Some ''accident"? You obviously didn't watch any of the games in 2006. Detroit basically gave them the title.
And what were the odds of the Cardinals winning the WS this year, before the season started?
Odds at the AS break:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=14516
They were given 3.7% chance to reach the WS.
Even at the start of the playoffs they were ranked 7 of 8 by bookmakers.
And even after they reached the WS their odds was 20 to 1.
They won two championships, but nobody knows how, cos they shouldnt have.
Thats what I call "by accident".

I brought up Soriano as an example, that the team could have spent that money equally badly on someone else.
But obviously you fail to see the wide range of probabilities beyond the facts.
Oh, and I couldn't find any 2 page long rant. What you smokin?
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:42 pm

Syfo i dont want to interrupt again because youre on a roll, but c'mon man.
you havent even addressed the main point of contention - the amount of money it would take to keep the core of Timmy, Cain, Bum, Posey, and Sandoval around.
Not only that, but you presume way too much about what drives player decisions to play for one team or another. Believe it or not, its not ALL about the money. Just ask CJ Wilson.

i have to be getting mweir'd here right?
(oh man can you imagine what a discussion between those 2 would look like? :-D )
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:01 pm

bayside wrote:Not only that, but you presume way too much about what drives player decisions to play for one team or another. Believe it or not, its not ALL about the money. Just ask CJ Wilson.


True, it isn't all about the money... But the Giants have to at least have an offer that is competitive to whichever team outbids them. Otherwise the MLBPA will never allow the signing to happen. Now what defines competitive can vary.
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