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Beltran to the Cards

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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:36 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:they're just wasting one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if cain and lincecum both walk when they become free agents rather than play for a team that can't score them runs.


while i was initially pissed that the Giants didnt sign Beltan, or any other impact FA bat , i actually think that it will work out better for them over the next 5-6 years *IF* they lock up at least 2 of the following guys to extensions before the end of the 2012 season,
If winning the most games possible over the next 5 years is the goal, (as opposed to going crazy for 1 "all-in" season and returning to mediocrity for several years immediately after due to bad contracts + payroll constraints) then i would prioritize the Giants spending as follows:

(this is pretty much a copy/paste form a post i made on another blog, so you might've seen it already)
1. long term deal for Bumgarner. see Rays. the more FA tteam option years the better
2. extend/resign Cain
3. extend Timmy
4. long term deal for Posey.
5. only then sign any FA bat that costs >$10mil/yr

I think Bumgarner is the most valuable asset on the team at this point, and if they can buy out his Arb years + 1 or 2 FA years for anything remotely close to the Matt Moore deal it would go a long way towards saving a ton of money in the future for FA’s.
Not to mention lock up one of the very young pitchers in the game. It would not surprise me if he becomes one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball, and is outperforming both Cain and Lincecum by the time he is scheduled to hit FA.

You can argue that Posey is more valuable and should be priority #1, but until he proves hes 100% healthy, and is going to be a full time catcher long term, then I would rate him a little lower.

Timmy is obviously the face of the franchise, and from a marketing perspective i can see resinging him being priority #1. But from a winning perspective, getting Bum/Posey to agree to team friendly deals is much more valuable to the success of the club.

Only after those guys are locked up (or after they are at least offered deals and decline) would I try to sign any big name FA’s. The only exception I would make would be if Cain or Lincecum explicitly demand offensive support, threatening to otherwise leave… but really, does that ever happen?

I didnt include Sandoval on the list because I think 1) of the young Giants stars hes the most likely to regress (perhaps permanently) due to fitness issues , and 2) just listening to all his interviews over the last couple years and hearing about his background and some of the off field stuff hes gone through, I get the feeling he is the most likely of the to remain a Giant even if he hits FA. He just seems to genuinely love the atmosphere and I can see him staying in SF for a long long time, assuming he stays healthy/productive.

also i feel like the Giants pitchers leaving due to poor offense is a little over blown. i mean they proved just a year ago that with even a below average offense they can win a championship if the pitching stays together. now if ownership starts to actually CUT payroll, i can definitely see them walking.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:00 am

bayside wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:they're just wasting one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if cain and lincecum both walk when they become free agents rather than play for a team that can't score them runs.


while i was initially pissed that the Giants didnt sign Beltan, or any other impact FA bat , i actually think that it will work out better for them over the next 5-6 years *IF* they lock up at least 2 of the following guys to extensions before the end of the 2012 season,
If winning the most games possible over the next 5 years is the goal, (as opposed to going crazy for 1 "all-in" season and returning to mediocrity for several years immediately after due to bad contracts + payroll constraints) then i would prioritize the Giants spending as follows:

(this is pretty much a copy/paste form a post i made on another blog, so you might've seen it already)
1. long term deal for Bumgarner. see Rays. the more FA tteam option years the better
2. extend/resign Cain
3. extend Timmy
4. long term deal for Posey.
5. only then sign any FA bat that costs >$10mil/yr

I think Bumgarner is the most valuable asset on the team at this point, and if they can buy out his Arb years + 1 or 2 FA years for anything remotely close to the Matt Moore deal it would go a long way towards saving a ton of money in the future for FA’s.
Not to mention lock up one of the very young pitchers in the game. It would not surprise me if he becomes one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball, and is outperforming both Cain and Lincecum by the time he is scheduled to hit FA.

You can argue that Posey is more valuable and should be priority #1, but until he proves hes 100% healthy, and is going to be a full time catcher long term, then I would rate him a little lower.

Timmy is obviously the face of the franchise, and from a marketing perspective i can see resinging him being priority #1. But from a winning perspective, getting Bum/Posey to agree to team friendly deals is much more valuable to the success of the club.

Only after those guys are locked up (or after they are at least offered deals and decline) would I try to sign any big name FA’s. The only exception I would make would be if Cain or Lincecum explicitly demand offensive support, threatening to otherwise leave… but really, does that ever happen?

I didnt include Sandoval on the list because I think 1) of the young Giants stars hes the most likely to regress (perhaps permanently) due to fitness issues , and 2) just listening to all his interviews over the last couple years and hearing about his background and some of the off field stuff hes gone through, I get the feeling he is the most likely of the to remain a Giant even if he hits FA. He just seems to genuinely love the atmosphere and I can see him staying in SF for a long long time, assuming he stays healthy/productive.

also i feel like the Giants pitchers leaving due to poor offense is a little over blown. i mean they proved just a year ago that with even a below average offense they can win a championship if the pitching stays together. now if ownership starts to actually CUT payroll, i can definitely see them walking.


i feel like cain will stay, but all the reports of timmy wanting a 1 yr deal or 8 yr deal really makes it seem like he wants to hit free agency. completely agree on locking up bumgarner, i mean it's not super important because he's under control for so long, but the kid is good and his arb $ could skyrocket fast if they don't lock him up early.

we have $25MM coming off the books next year and another $20MM the year after that, so even with arb bonuses, they should have money to spend the next couple years assuming payroll stays the same. i'll be interested how sabean handles it.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:06 pm

Sorry Giants fans, but unless you guys know something I don't, there is no way Matt Cain stays in San Fran.

Next year, Greinke is the best available FA SP. But Greinke won't pitch in any big markets. Due to this, Matt Cain will most likely be the best available SP on the market who all the teams could acquire.

Good luck winning the bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox. Both desperately need a solid guy like Cain, especially the Yankees.

Better hope this is true, and that Cain has a moron for an agent:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/tim_lincecum/

Cain's representatives spoke with Giants VP Bobby Evans during the Winter Meetings. Baggarly says "all indications are that the Giants plan to be aggressive in locking up Cain before he reports to spring training."
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:15 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:Sorry Giants fans, but unless you guys know something I don't, there is no way Matt Cain stays in San Fran.

Next year, Greinke is the best available FA SP. But Greinke won't pitch in any big markets. Due to this, Matt Cain will most likely be the best available SP on the market who all the teams could acquire.

Good luck winning the bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox. Both desperately need a solid guy like Cain, especially the Yankees.

Better hope this is true, and that Cain has a moron for an agent:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/tim_lincecum/

Cain's representatives spoke with Giants VP Bobby Evans during the Winter Meetings. Baggarly says "all indications are that the Giants plan to be aggressive in locking up Cain before he reports to spring training."


Based on my perception of Cain, I there's a pretty good chance he signs an extension.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Sun Dec 25, 2011 2:14 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:unless you guys know something I don't, there is no way Matt Cain stays in San Fran.
Next year, Greinke is the best available FA SP. But Greinke won't pitch in any big markets. Due to this, Matt Cain will most likely be the best available SP on the market who all the teams could acquire.
Good luck winning the bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox. Both desperately need a solid guy like Cain, especially the Yankees.

what makes you so sure Cain wont sign an extension?
listening to him over the past several years i get the impression that hes definitely not the kind of guy who is motivated by money first.
even if he was, you better believe that the Giants will make him an offer competitive with whatever the Yanks or Sox offer him, and thats if he even hits free agency.
theyve never been afraid to make a splash when current payroll allows it (see Bonds, Zito, Rowand), and theres a ton of money coming off the books over the next 2 years. and when it comes to a homegrown talent and fan favorite like Cain, i think theres at least a 70% chance he signs another contract with SF.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby shmolex » Mon Dec 26, 2011 5:07 am

Sabean has said time and time again that taking care of the core pitching staff is the top priority. If Cain doesn't resign with the Giants, it wont be because they didn't make him a competitive offer, but because he's sick of getting Cained.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Mon Dec 26, 2011 12:10 pm

bayside wrote:listening to him over the past several years i get the impression that hes definitely not the kind of guy who is motivated by money first.

:-?
Was said about Pujols too.
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:18 pm

Syfo-Dyas wrote:
bayside wrote:listening to him over the past several years i get the impression that hes definitely not the kind of guy who is motivated by money first.

:-?
Was said about Pujols too.

ya and Pujols DID sign a below market extension with St Louis
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby Urban Cohorts » Mon Dec 26, 2011 10:29 pm

bayside wrote:what makes you so sure Cain wont sign an extension?
listening to him over the past several years i get the impression that hes definitely not the kind of guy who is motivated by money first.
even if he was, you better believe that the Giants will make him an offer competitive with whatever the Yanks or Sox offer him, and thats if he even hits free agency.
theyve never been afraid to make a splash when current payroll allows it (see Bonds, Zito, Rowand), and theres a ton of money coming off the books over the next 2 years. and when it comes to a homegrown talent and fan favorite like Cain, i think theres at least a 70% chance he signs another contract with SF.


I'm not sure if Cain will sign an extension or not. For the Giants sake, they better do this before he hits the open market.

I know the Giants have spent money in the past, and they could match the Red Sox offer, but I really don't see them being able to come close to the Yankees offer. The Yankees have needed a solid #2 guy for years now and have always made that a top priority. They were willing to give both AJ Burnett and Carl Pavano huge contracts that they could never live up to. If Burnett was given over $16 million per year, can you imagine how much they will pay for Cain? Do the Giants really want to tie up $16-20 million per year in Cain?
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Re: Beltran to the Cards

Postby bayside » Mon Dec 26, 2011 10:57 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote: Do the Giants really want to tie up $16-20 million per year in Cain?

yes, of course they do.

they won a championship paying a 6th starter that much money, and if Cain signs an extension, he will be nearly 3 years younger than Zito was at the time of his contract.
having Cain + Timmy + Bumgarner + Posey + Sandoval all under contract for under 45M/yr would be bargain for such a talented core, and would allow ~ 75M to fill out the rest of the roster.
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