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Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 1:12 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
lane_anasazi2 wrote:
Brainstorm wrote:How do you justify Bumgarner as a 14th over Kennedy as a 15th? I know Bumgarner had a good year and there's some upside, but Kennedy is already there.


I justify it like this: Kennedy is a soft-tosser who out-performed his peripherals. That isn't the mark of death that some people make it out to be, but it's not a recipe for long term fantasy success. Bumgarner, on the other hand, has elite upside and his stats are being masked by a very poor start to 2011. Look at his first half/second half splits.

Kennedy is 27. While it's certainly possible, it doesn't seem likely given his age and skillset that he'll make a big jump in performance. Bumgarner is 22. It might not happen in 2012, but Bumgarner has elite, Kershaw-level upside.

He's younger, more talented, pitches in a better park, is a better bet to make a big jump in performance, has a better minor league pedigree... I don't see how this is even a question.


Yes, Kennedy did outperform some peripherals, but he also improved in every controllable aspect of his game- better K/9, more IP, better hitting behind him, dramatically decreased his BB/9, increased his GB%, lowered his HR/FB, proved he can stay healthy, and to top things off, is going to be in his prime. If he continues to improve those metrics, at the very least he replicates 2011, as his increased skills would cancel out any "luck" based stat regression. But Kennedy has outperformed his peripherals for 2 straight 200+ inning seasons now. If he does that again, and improves his skill set, he may be even better in 2012.

But since it is a keeper league, can't fault people for going with Bumgardner. More long term value there. Even though Kennedy should outproduce him in 2012 IMO.


Bumgarner outperformed kennedy in every single one of those controllable aspects, plays in a better park, and is 5 years younger. He was better than kennedy in 2011 and is better than kennedy now.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby Urban Cohorts » Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:19 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Bumgarner outperformed kennedy in every single one of those controllable aspects, plays in a better park, and is 5 years younger. He was better than kennedy in 2011 and is better than kennedy now.


Yes, but from a 4x4 fantasy perspective, Kennedy beat Bumgarner in every single category. More IP, much better record, more K's, better ERA and better WHIP (especially when you look at the 20+ inning he had over Bumgarner).

I don't see how Bumgarner outperformed Kennedy in 2011. The stats they produced are the stats. The underlying stats mean nothing when comparing two players and what actually occurred. Yes, Bumgarner had better peripherals, but Kennedy beat him in 2011. Call it whatever you want, but this is what happened.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:51 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:Bumgarner outperformed kennedy in every single one of those controllable aspects, plays in a better park, and is 5 years younger. He was better than kennedy in 2011 and is better than kennedy now.


Yes, but from a 4x4 fantasy perspective, Kennedy beat Bumgarner in every single category. More IP, much better record, more K's, better ERA and better WHIP (especially when you look at the 20+ inning he had over Bumgarner).

I don't see how Bumgarner outperformed Kennedy in 2011. The stats they produced are the stats. The underlying stats mean nothing when comparing two players and what actually occurred. Yes, Bumgarner had better peripherals, but Kennedy beat him in 2011. Call it whatever you want, but this is what happened.


Right, but we only care about what happened in terms of its predictive value. ERA, WHIP, total strikeouts, and Wins aren't very good predictors. They're just a record of what happened. If you want to get into a whole semantics argument about what "better" means, more power to you. But it's a fairly well-regarded fact that pitcher performance is different than pitcher production. There's a lot of sabermetric analysis that goes into taking out all the things that a pitcher doesn't have control over - like park factors, defense, and, arguably, HR/FB rate.

Was Kennedy better than Bumgarner in 2011? Blah blah blah semantics. From a purely productive perspective, yes.
Will Kennedy out-produce Bumgarner in 2012? Now that's the interesting question. My money is on no, though.
Would you rather have Bumgarner or Kennedy for about the same price in a keeper league? That's the actual question of the thread, and it's one that, personally, I think is a lay-up. It's Bumgarner, for all the reasons stated many many time above.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:55 am

Actually, can we just delete this thread? I feel like this argument is doing nothing but hyping up both Kennedy and Bumgarner and reducing my chances of getting either one in my drafts.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby Brainstorm » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:08 am

I didn't realize Bumgarner was so young considering he's been around a few years now. Damn lol.

So I change my thoughts on this, Bumgarner is the way to go
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