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Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby fast dogs » Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:41 pm

Mateo de Lorenzo wrote:
Mateo de Lorenzo wrote:;-D


Looks like I am alone in not picking AGon. Here is why I chose Pineda over AGon. I just worry AGon won't have a stud year like others think. At fifth round, he is decent value, but Pineda at 25th is too good to pass up, imo.

you wouldn't keep A Gon in the 5th round? this is 1 of the most perplexing things I've read in these pages in quite a while. if he's an early 2nd round instead of a late first ok, but not keeping him in the 5th is....not sure what the correct word here is
these would be my 5 as well:
Kinsler Rd 4
AGone Rd 5
Pedroia Rd 8
Bumgarner Rd 14
M Pineda Rd 25
Carlos Santana Rd 25
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby jwilly777 » Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:56 pm

For me, you have to get the most value possible. For example Pineda in the 25th is a huge value considering he will go somewhere between rounds 8 through 10. I would take him rather easily over Bumgarner or Kennedy at the rounds you'd be keeping them at. Same theory on Santana. I would rank these two as your top keepers then go from there. With only six keeper per team, there will be plenty of talent left in the draft to fill your roster out. Especially if your keeping some higher round players.
My 2 cents anyway.

Braun Rd 1
Victorino Rd 3
Kinsler Rd 4
AGone Rd 5
Bruce Rd 8
Pedroia Rd 8
Adam Jones Rd 9
Bumgarner Rd 14
Ian Kennedy Rd 15
Garza Rd 16
Heyward Rd 20
Ackley Rd 25
Chisenhall Rd 25
Belt Rd 25
M Pineda Rd 25
Carlos Santana Rd 25
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby kidsilk » Fri Dec 23, 2011 9:19 pm

biffy44 wrote:12 Team Head 2 Head 6 by 6 Avg OBA SB R RBI HR and W K WHIP ERA Sv IP
Standard Offense with 5 OF and 5 SP 4 RP

We keep 6 with sacrificing the Draft Round they were aquired.
MINORS are kept free Z. Cozart, Mesoraco, Sano, Scheppers, Trout

Which 6 would you keep:
Braun Rd 1
Victorino Rd 3
Kinsler Rd 4 ;-D
AGone Rd 5 ;-D
Bruce Rd 8
Pedroia Rd 8 ;-D
Adam Jones Rd 9
Bumgarner Rd 14
Ian Kennedy Rd 15
Garza Rd 16 ;-D
Heyward Rd 20
Ackley Rd 25
Chisenhall Rd 25
Belt Rd 25
M Pineda Rd 25 ;-D
Carlos Santana Rd 25 ;-D

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby Brainstorm » Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:49 pm

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks he absolutely has to keep Pineda.

I'd go with Santana, Pineda, A-Gone, Kennedy and Pedroia for sure. I lean towards Garza as the final but if you think you're keeping too much in terms of pitching, I'd go with Bruce considering the 5 OF setting.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:14 pm

Kinsler Rd 4
AGone Rd 5
Pedroia Rd 8
Bumgarner Rd 14
M Pineda Rd 25
Carlos Santana Rd 25
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby BigLebowski » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:37 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:Kinsler Rd 4
AGone Rd 5
Pedroia Rd 8
Bumgarner Rd 14
M Pineda Rd 25
Carlos Santana Rd 25


This way...the only change would be possibly Garza at round 16
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby Brainstorm » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:24 pm

How do you justify Bumgarner as a 14th over Kennedy as a 15th? I know Bumgarner had a good year and there's some upside, but Kennedy is already there.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 7:04 pm

Brainstorm wrote:How do you justify Bumgarner as a 14th over Kennedy as a 15th? I know Bumgarner had a good year and there's some upside, but Kennedy is already there.


I justify it like this: Kennedy is a soft-tosser who out-performed his peripherals. That isn't the mark of death that some people make it out to be, but it's not a recipe for long term fantasy success. Bumgarner, on the other hand, has elite upside and his stats are being masked by a very poor start to 2011. Look at his first half/second half splits.

Kennedy is 27. While it's certainly possible, it doesn't seem likely given his age and skillset that he'll make a big jump in performance. Bumgarner is 22. It might not happen in 2012, but Bumgarner has elite, Kershaw-level upside.

He's younger, more talented, pitches in a better park, is a better bet to make a big jump in performance, has a better minor league pedigree... I don't see how this is even a question.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:27 pm

Brainstorm wrote:How do you justify Bumgarner as a 14th over Kennedy as a 15th? I know Bumgarner had a good year and there's some upside, but Kennedy is already there.



Bumgarner being 5 years younger is the main reason. His home ballpark is a bit better as well. As far as Bumgarner goes, take a look at his last 4 months of the season. He had a monster last 4 months as it seemed he either got more confident or figured something out.
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Re: Keep 6 with Draft Penalties

Postby Urban Cohorts » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:23 am

lane_anasazi2 wrote:
Brainstorm wrote:How do you justify Bumgarner as a 14th over Kennedy as a 15th? I know Bumgarner had a good year and there's some upside, but Kennedy is already there.


I justify it like this: Kennedy is a soft-tosser who out-performed his peripherals. That isn't the mark of death that some people make it out to be, but it's not a recipe for long term fantasy success. Bumgarner, on the other hand, has elite upside and his stats are being masked by a very poor start to 2011. Look at his first half/second half splits.

Kennedy is 27. While it's certainly possible, it doesn't seem likely given his age and skillset that he'll make a big jump in performance. Bumgarner is 22. It might not happen in 2012, but Bumgarner has elite, Kershaw-level upside.

He's younger, more talented, pitches in a better park, is a better bet to make a big jump in performance, has a better minor league pedigree... I don't see how this is even a question.


Yes, Kennedy did outperform some peripherals, but he also improved in every controllable aspect of his game- better K/9, more IP, better hitting behind him, dramatically decreased his BB/9, increased his GB%, lowered his HR/FB, proved he can stay healthy, and to top things off, is going to be in his prime. If he continues to improve those metrics, at the very least he replicates 2011, as his increased skills would cancel out any "luck" based stat regression. But Kennedy has outperformed his peripherals for 2 straight 200+ inning seasons now. If he does that again, and improves his skill set, he may be even better in 2012.

But since it is a keeper league, can't fault people for going with Bumgardner. More long term value there. Even though Kennedy should outproduce him in 2012 IMO.
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