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Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

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Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby Billy_Ripken » Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:10 am

Sorry for the lengthy question, but I've been kicking this 'problem' around for a week and it's kicking my butt.

12-team roto mixed keeper league.

I can keep up to 5 players at last year's draft price minus 2 rounds, unless they were 1st or 2nd round picks -- 1st or 2nd round picks can't be kept because 2 minus 2 and 1 minus 2 are less than 1, so I'll be throwing Miguel Cabrera and Kemp back into the pool.

I'm picking last this year (1.12, 2.1, 3.12, etc.)

Keeping:
Desmond Jennings (lose my 23.12 pick)
Matt Moore (lose my 21.12 pick)
Brett Lawrie (lose my 20.1 pick)
Craig Kimbrel (lose my 16.1 pick)

The last keeper comes down to Clayton Kershaw, who would cost me my 3.12 pick, or Adam Wainwright, who would cost me my 18.1 pick.

I think Kershaw is the right answer since 3.12 is great value and he's a Top 3 pitcher, but I've found myself trying to justify keeping Wainwright at 18th round value, forecasting a guy like Greinke/Price/Lester/Haren will be around to grab at 3.12 since none of them outperformed their draft position by more than 2 rounds last year, plus some other benefits.....

By NOT keeping Kershaw and using CBS 2012 early rankings to forecast average draft position, I believe I net:
- a Greinke type at 3.12
- Wainwright (CBS 5th/6th round value) at virtually no cost, plus ability to keep him in 2013 at 16th round value.
- ability to use my 5th/6th round pick to net a bat like Sandoval or Shin-Soo Choo instead of draft SP since staff already has Greinke type, Wainwright, Matt Moore, and Kimbrel

By keeping Kershaw:
- I get him for good value at 3.12, but can't keep him in 2013 unless it's with 1st round pick
- probably use a 5th/6th round pick to draft a Wainwright type, but lose keeper status on him

Trying to make this as apples to apples as possible and understand the give/take in each option, I think it boils down to Kershaw vs. Greinke type + Sandoval type + Option to pick up Wainwright in 2013 at 16th round value.

I'd appreciate the cafe's thoughts on this.....will definitely help in return (leave a link).
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:56 am

Billy_Ripken wrote:The last keeper comes down to Clayton Kershaw, who would cost me my 3.12 pick, or Adam Wainwright, who would cost me my 18.1 pick.


Billy_Ripken wrote:forecasting a guy like Greinke/Price/Lester/Haren will be around to grab at 3.12 since none of them outperformed their draft position by more than 2 rounds last year, plus some other benefits.....


Based on these two statements I would keep Wainwright over Kerhsaw.

Kershaw is going to cost you a 3rd round pick to keep. Not bad value there, but little room for improvement. Since you say most managers aren't going to be keeping near-top SP, you can most likely get someone similar to Kershaw with that 3rd round pick.

While I don't consider Wainwright to be a Greinke type (I think Greinke will be a top 3 SP in 2012), he is certainly worth an 18th round draft pick. There are question marks about Wainwright's health, which is why I don't put him in the elite SP class. Yet the cost of an 18th round pick to keep him is something you cannot pass up. There is a far bigger likelihood that Wainwright returns a much bigger payoff at an 18th round pick vs. Kershaw at 3rd round pick.

So keep Wainwright. You most likely won't get that type of talent with an 18th round pick. And with the 3rd round pick saved, you can at least draft someone similar to, or slightly worse than, Kershaw.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Dec 22, 2011 2:24 am

Kershaw easily for me, and i'm a Wainwright fan.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby fast dogs » Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:22 am

decent chance you'll keep at least 3 of those guys again next year, maybe 4, you'll probably find a couple more again this year. I'd remove Wain from next years equation as you could get someone again similiar to him. Kershaw is the play for this year and should be your choice here.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby Billy_Ripken » Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:52 am

Thanks for the replies so far. Good points on both sides....I agree the Wainwright 2013 option shouldn't carry much weight, so I'm basically looking at this as getting a Top 10-13 pitcher plus a bat like Sandoval in exchange for Kershaw. Kershaw is so solid though and cheap at 3.12, it'll be hard to pass him up. I know spring training is months away, and that will answer some questions regarding Wainwright....assuming he looks good at camp, should I be considering keeping him over Matt Moore?
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby MaudDib » Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:17 am

I am actually surprised everyone is picking Kershaw. I am a huge fan of Kershaw and I think he is a top 5 SP for the next 5-8 years BUT Wainwright is a top 5 SP as well. People seem to forget just how good he was before the surgery. Wainwright had two seasons with ERA's under 3, K's over 200 and over 19 wins. That is an Ace and then add in that you can keep him for 2 years at a bargain price.

I realize that Wainwright had TJ surgery, so there is risk that he will have some problems but he was trying to get the Cardinals to let him pitch in the post-season which means he should have all winter to build his stamina. One thing I have heard "experts" say about TJ recovery, is too look at the team and their past success which the Cardinals have done very well with. Jamie Garcia and Chris Carpenter were both players they helped through the process and both came back at pretty much full strength the very next season. So I wouldn't be that worried how Wainwright will be next year.

By not keeping Kershaw, you will have all of your picks for the first 10 rounds. I would imagine most of the big name players will be eligible which means you could draft Kershaw with a 1st, 2nd and maybe even a 3rd round pick depending on who is available.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby mkultra » Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:47 pm

Completely agree with MaudDib! Kershaw is money this year, but you could probably keep Wainwright for the rest of his prime years at that spot. As good as Kershaw is, is he even worth giving up your 1.12 pick next year? I'm not sure.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby Element » Thu Dec 22, 2011 3:24 pm

I'd gamble with Wainwright. Maybe there is a chance you could re-draft Clayton.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:14 pm

MaudDib wrote:I am actually surprised everyone is picking Kershaw. I am a huge fan of Kershaw and I think he is a top 5 SP for the next 5-8 years BUT Wainwright is a top 5 SP as well. People seem to forget just how good he was before the surgery. Wainwright had two seasons with ERA's under 3, K's over 200 and over 19 wins. That is an Ace and then add in that you can keep him for 2 years at a bargain price.

I realize that Wainwright had TJ surgery, so there is risk that he will have some problems but he was trying to get the Cardinals to let him pitch in the post-season which means he should have all winter to build his stamina. One thing I have heard "experts" say about TJ recovery, is too look at the team and their past success which the Cardinals have done very well with. Jamie Garcia and Chris Carpenter were both players they helped through the process and both came back at pretty much full strength the very next season. So I wouldn't be that worried how Wainwright will be next year.

By not keeping Kershaw, you will have all of your picks for the first 10 rounds. I would imagine most of the big name players will be eligible which means you could draft Kershaw with a 1st, 2nd and maybe even a 3rd round pick depending on who is available.


All of this makes a lot of sense. If I'm reading your league settings right, 1st and 2nd round picks can never be kept, meaning there is a significant amount of talent in the draft pool. Keeping an ace like Wainwright at a bargain is more important than having a slightly better pitcher.
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Re: Keeper question: Kershaw or Greinke + Sandoval

Postby ensanimal » Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:46 pm

I actually think I would keep Wainwright and get the big draft advantage. Plus, Kershaw is only going to be kept for this year, while Wainwright has many more years where he would still hold some value. If your estimates are correct as to who may be available in each round, I think it's a clear decision to go Wainwright.
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