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Darvish deal

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Re: Darvish deal

Postby mkultra » Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:21 pm

I agree with the overall sentiment that it was smart to trade away guys you weren't keeping for the #1 pick, but how sure are you it's Darvish? He's:

- Coming to the U.S. (better hitters, shorter pitching rotation schedule)
- Coming to the A.L. (better hitters)
- Coming to Arlington (notorious pitcher's park)

If 4+ ERA and 12 wins is what you're looking out of your #1 pick, then go for it, but that's a tremendous gamble. Are your keepers otherwise restricted, or is it basically the top 200 guys off the board each year?
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby MaudDib » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:13 pm

mkultra wrote:I agree with the overall sentiment that it was smart to trade away guys you weren't keeping for the #1 pick, but how sure are you it's Darvish? He's:

- Coming to the U.S. (better hitters, shorter pitching rotation schedule)
- Coming to the A.L. (better hitters)
- Coming to Arlington (notorious pitcher's park)

If 4+ ERA and 12 wins is what you're looking out of your #1 pick, then go for it, but that's a tremendous gamble. Are your keepers otherwise restricted, or is it basically the top 200 guys off the board each year?


While I agree that you shouldn't decide right now on Darvish. At least see who is actually going to be available with this pick. But I expect better numbers than a 4+ ERA but because wins are subjective, I think he can win more but he very well might not. Yes he will pitch his games in both the AL and Arlington but he will also pitch in and against Seattle, Oakland and Houston, all have very nice pitchers parks and offenses that leave a lot to be desired.

I think too many people are making comparisons to Dice K and making assumptions about Texas stadium. In the past few years, there have been a number of quality SP that call Arlington home and who have put up quality numbers including ERA's under 3.50.

Again I am not saying Darvish will be an Ace but in a 16 team league with 12 keepers, there is very unlikely any player available who will have more upside than Darvish.
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby mkultra » Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:37 pm

Agreed, I think it's pretty situational, depending on your league. Is a guy like Wainwright, who sat out all last year, available? What about Jordan Zimmerman? I'd certainly take both those guys ahead of Darvish.
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby converge241 » Fri Dec 23, 2011 9:44 am

In my dynasty league guy traded Ryan Howard for the rights to first pick to take him before the posting process was done.

Keep in mind of course that's with Howard's "risk" coming into this year
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Fri Dec 23, 2011 5:28 pm

converge241 wrote:In my dynasty league guy traded Ryan Howard for the rights to first pick to take him before the posting process was done.


We'll call that the "shiny new toy" effect.
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby MaudDib » Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:18 pm

lane_anasazi2 wrote:
converge241 wrote:In my dynasty league guy traded Ryan Howard for the rights to first pick to take him before the posting process was done.


We'll call that the "shiny new toy" effect.


I would call that sell low buy low. Who knows what kind of season Howard will have and when exactly he will be back. Add in that Howard has been in decline for sometime now, it seems like the best time to trade him for something that could be way more valuable by this time next year. Maybe Darvish blows up but it wasn't like he traded a top 25 player for him.
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby BoBtheMule » Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:00 pm

[quote="mkultra"]I agree with the overall sentiment that it was smart to trade away guys you weren't keeping for the #1 pick, but how sure are you it's Darvish? [quote]

I've seen this brought up a few times. This is a 16 team keeper league.
We can keep 12 major leaguers and 8 "minors" but minors is defined as a position player under 100 G or a pitcher under 18 GS or 30 APP so a lot of players are already off the board.

Such a deep league means that players like Wainwright and Howard will be kept.
I've made a spreadsheet trying to forecast keepers and using owners past histories... Right now the best pitcher besides Darvish that will be available is one of our own... Chacin. Currently Holland and Scherzer aren't going to be kept by their owners but it's 99% that they will deal them to recoup some draft picks.

Hitters are essentially the same way though I'm not as focused on hitters because our lineup is essentially set with us keeping Mesoraco (m), Pujols, Cano, Hanley, Zimmerman, AGon, CarGo, Kemp and JUpton.

There are going to be pitchers who's floors are close to Darvish but the ceiling could be much higher... or am I wrong in that assumption?

The other option is to wait until he signs and use the hype to get a great return.

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Re: Darvish deal

Postby MaudDib » Tue Jan 03, 2012 5:58 pm

BoBtheMule wrote:There are going to be pitchers who's floors are close to Darvish but the ceiling could be much higher... or am I wrong in that assumption?
Bob


What pitchers wouldn't be kept that have a higher ceiling than Darvish? Right now I wouldn't put Darvish higher than a #2 at this point but that is still very good in this deep of a league. So I would just be curious who you think would still be there and have that kind of upside?
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Re: Darvish deal

Postby RDD15 » Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:20 am

MaudDib wrote:
BoBtheMule wrote:There are going to be pitchers who's floors are close to Darvish but the ceiling could be much higher... or am I wrong in that assumption?
Bob


What pitchers wouldn't be kept that have a higher ceiling than Darvish? Right now I wouldn't put Darvish higher than a #2 at this point but that is still very good in this deep of a league. So I would just be curious who you think would still be there and have that kind of upside?


I am the other co-owner of the team in question. I have not done as much prep work as my friend the Mule thus far, but the short and easy answer is, we just dont know who will be available. This league's hot stove does not start to heat up until after New Year's, so there are still lots of deals to be made before we can accurately project keeper lists. We went out and got after this deal WAY early so we could be ahead of the curve and not the guys trying to unload spare parts late in the offseason after guys feel that their rosters are set.

Of course we are open to taking other players with the first overall. I mean, if someone drops a guy that we really like, we are not so locked into Darvish with that pick that we will not change course. We are kind of married to taking a starting pitcher however, unless someone drops a hitter that just blows our doors off. The types of SP that you find in this league's draft tend to be guys like Chacin, Floyd, De La Rosa, etc.

I guess the thinking behind the trade is that we feel that Darvish can be a #2 fantasy starter in a 16 teamer. If he is the best available to us with that #1 pick, then we did well to give up the spare parts that we dealt.
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