Darvish deal

[BoBtheMule]

in a 16 team pts league
12 major keepers, 8 minors

Just dealt LoMo, Storen, Gavin Floyd, Jacob Marisnick and Alex Meyer for the first overall pick in the draft this spring with the intention of drafting Darvish. We tried to make the deal before the results of the posting was announced.

None of those guys were on our keeper list but we could have sold them off seperately and gotten more picks.

Think this was a good gamble? What's the opinion on Darvish out there?

BoB

[lane_anasazi2]

He's definitely a risk. The knee-jerk reaction is to compare him to Dice-K, but Darvish is a different pitcher, both physically and statistically. For one thing, Darvish had three straight seasons in a row that were better than any one that Dice-K put up. He's also physically bigger and throws harder, and he's a year younger than Dice-K was when he was posted.

Projections for him vary. Historically, extrapolating MLB success from NPB stats has been a bit of a mixed bag. Certainly, if he comes over he'll be the most talented NPB pitcher we've seen. The most aggressive projections on him will call him a #1 starter - Verlander-caliber, even. But that's a very aggressive projection.

It matters where he ends up, too. Smart money is on the Rangers, Yankees, or Blue Jays. If he lands in the AL East, he's going to get a trial by fire. There's also the possibility that he doesn't come over at all. Just because he posted doesn't mean he'll sign a contract.

So you're taking a bit of a gamble here. Especially considering the depth of the 2011 draft class, starting pitching in particular. With even a low pick in the first round you could land, say, Dylan Bundy or James Paxton, players who are further away but with very high upsides as well.

[Mateo de Lorenzo]

in a 16 team pts league
12 major keepers, 8 minors

Just dealt LoMo, Storen, Gavin Floyd, Jacob Marisnick and Alex Meyer for the first overall pick in the draft this spring with the intention of drafting Darvish. We tried to make the deal before the results of the posting was announced.

None of those guys were on our keeper list but we could have sold them off seperately and gotten more picks.

Think this was a good gamble? What's the opinion on Darvish out there?

BoB

Has Darvish even been posted yet? I know Aoki was but haven;t heard of Darvish being posted.

[lane_anasazi2]

Yes, Darvish has been posted.

[MaudDib]

Since you didn't trade anything that you were planning yo keep, then I think this was a good deal. Taking Darvish is a high risk high reward and you should have time to hear how he does during spring training before you decide. Right nos with no other info, I think I would take Darvish.

[thedude]

He's also physically bigger and throws harder, and he's a year younger than Dice-K was when he was posted.

Dice-K threw harder than Darvish (he touched 100 MPH when he was younger), and while Darvish is taller, Matsuzaka is more solidly built.

[Urban Cohorts]

Tough to say whether or not to gamble on Darvish. Who else is available? Any good, established players?

Though it is probably still a good deal anyways, as already posted-

Since you didn't trade anything that you were planning to keep, then I think this was a good deal.

[raiders_umpire]

Solid deal for the first overall pick. Even if Darvish doesn't sign in the next 30 days, I imagine there is someone available at pick #1 that is still worth grabbing.

[ensanimal]

A bit of a gamble, but 1 that may be pay off. Since it seems like you weren't keeping any of them anyways, might as well get the #1 pick instead of a bunch of lower choices.

[Brainstorm]

I like getting the #1 pick for guys you had no intention of keeping, but is Darvish the #1 guy available? I would review all your options before proceeding on him.

I don't trust Japanese starters as a whole. Dice-K was alright for a short period of time, but besides that most Japanese starters don't work out long-term when they are posted and come over.