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Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

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Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby KanyeBest » Mon Dec 05, 2011 6:46 pm

I'll try to keep it short. This is a 20-team dynasty league with a salary cap based on real life salaries. The cap is $140. It's a 6x6 league (OPS and Holds), H2H style. When a player's real-life contract changes, you have the option to either accept it or drop the player. I won the league last year (I know the team doesn't look amazing, but adjust your perspective to a 20 team dynasty league), and I'm looking to repeat.

Should I extend the following players? Players in bold I have to make a decision on. In parenthesis are their contracts in the form of (Year:Salary)

C - Miguel Montero (Arb eligible)
1B - Gaby Sanchez ($1)
2B - Jason Kipnis ($1)
SS - J.J. Hardy (12:$7, 13:$7, 14:$7)
3B - Pablo Sandoval ($1)
LF - Ryan Braun (12:$6, 13:$9, 14:$10, 15:$12, 16:$19, 17:$19, 18:$19, 19:$18, 20:$16, 21:$15 mutual option)
CF - Drew Stubbs ($1)
RF - Lance Berkman (12:$12)
UTL - Nelson Cruz (Arb eligible)
BN - Brandon Belt ($1)
BN - Brett Gardner ($1)
BN - Jesus Montero ($1)

SP - Jon Lester (12:$8, 13:$12, 14:$13 club option)
SP - Gio Gonzalez ($1)
SP - Francisco Liriano (Arb eligible)
SP - Cory Luebke ($1)
SP - R.A. Dickey (12:$4, 13:$5 club option)
SP - Alex Cobb ($1)
SP - Ricky Nolasco (12:$9, 13:$12)

RP - Brandon League (Arb eligible)
RP - Nick Masset (Arb eligible)
RP - Al Alburquerque ($1)
RP - Rex Brothers ($1)
RP - Tim Collins ($1)
RP - J.J. Putz (12:$5, 13:$7 club option)
RP - Addison Reed ($1)
RP - Sergio Santos (12:$1, 13:$3, 14:$4, 15:$6 club option, 16:$8 club option, 17:$9 club option)

As you can see, I have the luxury of some extreme salary to spare. I only have ~$50 committed to 2012 salary out of a possible $140.

The Arb guys - Montero, Cruz, League, Liriano, and Masset - they will depend on what happens with their contract. I think if they did the standard 1-year deal and a raise, I'd keep all of them. Even Masset is usually a good source of holds. If they signed multi year deals, though, would you bite?

Hardy - I'm torn. On the one hand, $7 isn't that much and SS is SUPER-THIN in a 20 team league. On the other, he's not exactly a picture of consistency.

Braun - No brainer. I'm not going to worry about 2019 and if he'll be worth it then. There's no question, right? Keep him.

Berkman - It's only a 1 year deal, and $12 seems reasonable, right?

Santos - Here's where I'm torn. I hate giving out multi year deals to relievers. On the other hand, when he gets expensive those are all club options. On the other hand, he might not even be closing in a year. On the other hand, it's not like I'm squeezed for salary space. On the other hand, giving out bad contracts is how good teams get bad. Huh.

Thoughts?
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Re: Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Mon Dec 05, 2011 7:10 pm

KanyeBest wrote:SS - J.J. Hardy (12:$7, 13:$7, 14:$7)

Hardy - I'm torn. On the one hand, $7 isn't that much and SS is SUPER-THIN in a 20 team league. On the other, he's not exactly a picture of consistency.


I think this depends upon how many SS are going to be available come draft time. Take the current Free Agents into account and guys who you don't think are going to be resigned. If the pool is shallow, I'd stick with Hardy. As you said, the cost isn't outrageous. If the pool is deep, I would throw Hardy back and look to nab another SS instead.

Also, for what its worth, SS is a position that I would A) overpay for and B) do not currently anticipate Hardy to crack the top 10.

LF - Ryan Braun (12:$6, 13:$9, 14:$10, 15:$12, 16:$19, 17:$19, 18:$19, 19:$18, 20:$16, 21:$15 mutual option)

Braun - No brainer. I'm not going to worry about 2019 and if he'll be worth it then. There's no question, right? Keep him.


Don't worry about 2019, Braun is an absolute must keep. Top player with a great price. Can't go wrong here.

RF - Lance Berkman (12:$12)

Berkman - It's only a 1 year deal, and $12 seems reasonable, right?


Yes, this deal looks very reasonable IMO. You are not hurting for salary and I think Berkman has another good year in 2012.

RP - Sergio Santos (12:$1, 13:$3, 14:$4, 15:$6 club option, 16:$8 club option, 17:$9 club option)

Santos - Here's where I'm torn. I hate giving out multi year deals to relievers. On the other hand, when he gets expensive those are all club options. On the other hand, he might not even be closing in a year. On the other hand, it's not like I'm squeezed for salary space. On the other hand, giving out bad contracts is how good teams get bad. Huh.


I would keep Santos. Yes, RP has a lot of uncertainty, but you have a nice price for Santos over the next few seasons. He could fall off the map, but there are several other RP I would tag ahead of Santos in that department. Beyond 2014 would not be a great contract, but then I refer you to what you originally said:

KanyeBest wrote:When a player's real-life contract changes, you have the option to either accept it or drop the player. I won the league last year (I know the team doesn't look amazing, but adjust your perspective to a 20 team dynasty league), and I'm looking to repeat.


If you want to repeat, I would keep Santos. If he goes uninjured, he can pay off immensely over the next few seasons. After that, not so much. But you want to win now, right?
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Re: Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby fast dogs » Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:15 pm

I wouldn't spend 9% of my salary on Berkman; yes you got your moneys worth last year and he could again if he stays on the field I'm just not betting on it. I'd rather spend the extra $ on someone not-so-near to the end of his career
Odd looking roster with so many $1 players, how do you fill your team after you've decided who to/not to keep? Will you have no problem spending the rest of your available salary on unclaimed players?
If Nolasco is worth $9 then JJ should be worth $7. having a hard time getting a good feel for the league settings
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Re: Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:24 pm

Read the whole post. It's not a keeper league, it's a dynasty contract league with contracts based on real-life player contracts. All the $1 guys are young players who are still under team control.
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Re: Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby fast dogs » Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:44 pm

I got that, he just has so few salaries above $1 its tough judging if JJ is worth $7 when Lester is 8 and Nolasco 9. He has so much left to spend maybe Berkman can earn that 12 if he'll have trouble spending the entire 140
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Re: Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:04 pm

fast dogs wrote:I wouldn't spend 9% of my salary on Berkman; yes you got your moneys worth last year and he could again if he stays on the field I'm just not betting on it. I'd rather spend the extra $ on someone not-so-near to the end of his career


Yeah, I'm not betting on Berkman repeating 2011, but I wouldn't bet that he falls off the map completely either. He should still post reasonable numbers in 2012 if healthy. It is tough to compare contracts between players in a league like this. So I took into account his roster, how many open spaces he will have (assuming he keeps the ARB guys like he said he would), and what I think Berkman's production in 2012 will be.

I think since he wants to win next year and isn't going to have a problem with salaries, he should keep Berkman. If Berkman gets injured, he only has him on payroll for 2012. There is no long term risk.

KanyeBest wrote:Berkman - It's only a 1 year deal, and $12 seems reasonable, right?

On the other hand, it's not like I'm squeezed for salary space.
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Re: Worth extending Berkman, Santos, others?

Postby kaiser » Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:16 pm

The only guy I extend there is Braun. Start with him and build your team around his stick.
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