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Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:05 am

bayside wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:Davis is the type of player I like to see in the leadoff spot. someone who can get on base

career OBP = .319

whoops



I guess you missed the part where I broke down the numbers per season.


a study that looks at speedy runners vs non speedy runners and different batters who do what they do, would take forever to be accurate because you would have to study every single situation. it's not always the same. forgetting about the batter part of it, having a speedy runner on base would force the pitcher to pitch differently. not just what the pitcher does physically, but also in his head. he would be more likely to make a mistake. I don't need a study to think this.

studies and polls and such are useless unless you study/poll EVERYTHING. it depends on who you ask. imagine doing a poll on teenagers involved in sexual activity. if you doll a poll in a church community your going to get much different results than if you do a poll outside a church community.


it's not at all surprising to see Ichiro moved out of the leadoff spot now. I'm just saying if the only reason is because he doesn't take many walks then that move would have been made awhile ago.
I doubt the Mariners had mauch of a problem with Ichiro as their leadoff hitter before last season. even with last years bad OBP number he still has .370 OBP for his career. he was great at doing the number one thing you want from your leadoff hitter, getting on base. doesn't matter if he gets on with a lucky single or a walk, as long as he gets on.
he's now 38 years old coming off the worst season of his career. I wouldn't expect him to be the same as he was in his past, so it probably is best now for the Mariners to move him out of the leadoff spot, if he's not going to be doing a good job of getting on base. if this is the type of player Ichiro is going to be now not only would I not want him in the leadoff spot, but he shouldn't be batting in the 3 spot either. but then what do you do with the guy who has meant so much to this team? do the Mariners move him down to the bottom of the order if that's what is best for the team?
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Dec 30, 2011 11:11 am

raiders_umpire wrote:The only study that I have ever read showed that a speedy baserunner on first was worth 1.3 extra runs a year.

I'm guessing that pales in comparison to the extra runs a .370 OBA has versus a .320 OBA. Also, that speedy runner also creates the same "havoc" on the bases whether he bats 1st or 8th or 9th. I don't see the speed as a justification to give crappy hitters more at-bats by having them atop the order.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby bayside » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:15 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:a study that looks at speedy runners vs non speedy runners and different batters who do what they do, would take forever to be accurate because you would have to study every single situation. it's not always the same. forgetting about the batter part of it, having a speedy runner on base would force the pitcher to pitch differently. not just what the pitcher does physically, but also in his head. he would be more likely to make a mistake. I don't need a study to think this.


it wouldnt be that hard to do. just take the the top 10 base stealers each yr, of say the past 10 years, and compare the wOBA of the hitters when they are on 1st base, to the average MLB wOBA with a runner on 1st base.
might be time consuming, but assuming you have access to the database it wouldnt necessarily be difficult.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby SpecialFNK » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:31 am

bayside wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:a study that looks at speedy runners vs non speedy runners and different batters who do what they do, would take forever to be accurate because you would have to study every single situation. it's not always the same. forgetting about the batter part of it, having a speedy runner on base would force the pitcher to pitch differently. not just what the pitcher does physically, but also in his head. he would be more likely to make a mistake. I don't need a study to think this.


it wouldnt be that hard to do. just take the the top 10 base stealers each yr, of say the past 10 years, and compare the wOBA of the hitters when they are on 1st base, to the average MLB wOBA with a runner on 1st base.
might be time consuming, but assuming you have access to the database it wouldnt necessarily be difficult.


but I don't think you can just take the top 10, or the top 20, or the top 50. you have to take everyone. there might be a player out there with a lot of speed but not very good SB success at all. doesn't mean he wont be running. early last season Juan Pierre was getting caught more than he was getting a steal. but you knew he was still going to be running.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:37 pm

Blue Jays are not serious for Fielder.

According to FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, the Blue Jays are "not a serious suitor" for Prince Fielder.
It was assumed, when this offseason began, that Toronto would get involved in the Fielder sweepstakes at some point. But they've shown no interest yet and apparently aren't planning a late charge. The 27-year-old first baseman has struggled to find a fruitful market this winter despite owning a .929 career OPS and batting .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs and 120 RBI in 162 games last season for Milwaukee. The Nationals have been linked most frequently, and also most recently.


Fielder's agent Scott Boras also had no interest in a 1 year deal with Milwaukee.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Brewers invited Prince Fielder back on a one-year contract, but his agent Scott Boras showed no interest.
The idea, as described by Shaikin, is that he would return to Milwaukee for one year before attempting to land a mega-contract when the Dodgers have their new owner in place next winter. It's an interesting angle, but apparently Boras still thinks a lucrative long-term contract is out there this offseason. As of now, the Nationals and Mariners remain the favorites to sign the free agent first baseman.


couldn't a 1 year contract for now be a good option? there really doesn't seem to be serious long term deals right now for Fielder, especially on the numbers he would booking for.
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