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Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:36 pm

Rajai Davis is not Fred Lewis. Lewis career high in SB was 21 in 133 games. Davis can double that easy. there's a big difference in getting on base and having a great ability to steal than getting on base and maybe you can steal some of the time.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Dec 29, 2011 7:03 pm

Why are you so obsessed with Rajai Davis... :-S
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:01 pm

Davis is the type of player I like to see in the leadoff spot. someone who can get on base and then have the speed to steal bases. I would rather have a leadoff hitter capable of doing that than someone who was jacking HR. IMO the game changes with a runner on base.
he had a really bad season in 2011. there's no debating that, you can see the numbers. but I still think he has potential to be a good enough leadoff hitter. I don't think it's fair to completely write him off because of what he did in 2011, after coming off what he did in 2010 and more so in 2009. it's not like he's been terrible for years. if he has had season after season after season of not being productive, then I'd easily say he was nothing more than a 4th OF.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:14 pm

#1 priority for a leadoff hitter: get on base. Past 2 seasons: .320 and .273 OBA. Next.

Even Ichiro is being moved away from leadoff in Seattle and they're terrible. Why? He can't take a walk and therefore doesn't get on base enough. Stealing bases might be fun but most of the time it's not very productive. Rajai was caught 25% of the time last year (22% for his career) and depending on who you believe, that's barely even above the break-even point.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:42 pm

I don't think Seattle would move Ichiro now just because he can't take a walk. he's been that way for years, but always still had a good OBP. he too was bad in 2011 with .310 OBP. but he's also 38 years old.

ideally would it be nice to have a leadoff hitter who could get on base AND also have the ability to hit some HR? sure no doubt. it would be great to have a Ricky Henderson type.
personally I like to see a leadoff hitter who can get on base and steal, rather than someone who gets on base and doesn't steal at all.

a SB isn't just as simple as that. it's not just about SB against CS. I'd much rather have a runner on 1st who has the speed to steal 2nd than a runner on 1st you know wont steal. it changes what the pitcher does. it the pitcher knows the runner on 1st isn't going anywhere he can still throw a ball in the dirt and not have to worry about the catcher being able to throw out the runner. if you have a runner on 1st who you know can steal, then you have to make a decent pitch to give your catcher a better chance at throwing out that runner should he do run. doing that gives the batter a much better chance at getting a good pitch to hit. that's something that's isn't calculated in SB success.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Dec 30, 2011 1:08 am

The effect on the pitcher has been looked at before and found to be very minimal. Obviously for a pitcher that is significantly worse out of the stretch it makes more of a difference. But it also distracts from the hitter and causes him to fall behind in the count as he gives the speedy runner a couple pitches to steal on to begin the at-bat. In general there's very minimal net effect.

And Eric Wedge has already talked about moving Ichiro from the leadoff spot:

"I'm still not sure where I'm going to hit him in the order and I want him to understand that," Wedge said, adding he most recently met with Ichiro a few days ago. "Because ultimately, I'm going to do what I feel like is best for our club."


He's had an empty average for years which has led to him being severely over-rated as a hitter. Without an insane BABIP he becomes an offensive liability, and the Mariners started to deal with that last season.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby bayside » Fri Dec 30, 2011 1:48 am

SpecialFNK wrote:Davis is the type of player I like to see in the leadoff spot. someone who can get on base

career OBP = .319

whoops



SpecialFNK wrote:a SB isn't just as simple as that. it's not just about SB against CS. I'd much rather have a runner on 1st who has the speed to steal 2nd than a runner on 1st you know wont steal. it changes what the pitcher does. it the pitcher knows the runner on 1st isn't going anywhere he can still throw a ball in the dirt and not have to worry about the catcher being able to throw out the runner. if you have a runner on 1st who you know can steal, then you have to make a decent pitch to give your catcher a better chance at throwing out that runner should he do run. doing that gives the batter a much better chance at getting a good pitch to hit. that's something that's isn't calculated in SB success.

im sure you have evidence to back this up
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby Urban Cohorts » Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:45 am

bayside wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:a SB isn't just as simple as that. it's not just about SB against CS. I'd much rather have a runner on 1st who has the speed to steal 2nd than a runner on 1st you know wont steal. it changes what the pitcher does. it the pitcher knows the runner on 1st isn't going anywhere he can still throw a ball in the dirt and not have to worry about the catcher being able to throw out the runner. if you have a runner on 1st who you know can steal, then you have to make a decent pitch to give your catcher a better chance at throwing out that runner should he do run. doing that gives the batter a much better chance at getting a good pitch to hit. that's something that's isn't calculated in SB success.

im sure you have evidence to back this up


I think having a quick guy on base (or better yet, someone who is a good base-runner- meaning good SB success% and instincts) does impact pitchers in that they have to speed up their delivery. It can't be denied that pitchers need to speed up their delivery when most players are on base. Unless said player is incredibly slow (aka the David Ortiz/Bengie Molina type). Just ask Javier Vazquez. Career wise, he was pretty darn good without runners on base. When they reached base, they tended to score way more often than average.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:05 am

Skin Blues wrote:The effect on the pitcher has been looked at before and found to be very minimal.

As a coach I have a different opinion.
It's not only that a baserunner forces the pitcher to an uncomfortable position, but his attention gets divided, and can't focus on the batter 100%.
A speedy baserunner limits the pitcher's repertoire, and locations he can use, which gives the batter a better chance to succeed, since the batter knows that too.
Finally there's an increased stress level, that might not show right there, but contributes to the pitcher's overall mental load, that might only be a factor later in the game.
And the baserunner didn't even moved yet.

To be honest, I never read a study about this, and I'm not aware of the magnitude of the effect, but Im sure that these effects are different at every level, and have different effect on every player as well.

All in all, I have an open mind, so I'd like to read that article, if you'd share that link.
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Re: Jays the front runners for Prince Fielder

Postby raiders_umpire » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:38 am

The only study that I have ever read showed that a speedy baserunner on first was worth 1.3 extra runs a year.
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