Well Im not going to fight the battle again, however I will say that I will always be of the opinion that many times hard work and intelligence can overcome what many consider "luck" , not only in fantasy baseball but life. I believe the saying is "Those that dont study history are doomed to repeat it" . Not referring to anyone on here but as I said early on, too many times I see people use "luck" as a crutch. The day I feel I dont have control over my success and cant continue to learn more then I will quit.
Happy New Years to all Cafe members may "luck" shine on you in 2012
Yes, very good post SS. It's that fact that it is so much easier to get info on fantasy sports that is actually making it less fun for me...the work I put into it was/is the fun and rewarding part...but now it's almost become pointless with as much information that is out there now.
I have found the Forecaster to be a very valuable tool in helping to identify players who seemingly underperformed during the previous season but actually played better than their surface stats indicate and will therefore be 'undervalued' on draft/auction day. James Shields was one such player for me last year. Instead of picking a top pitcher very early, I was able to add studs elsewhere and then pick Shields later and get stud pitcher value out of him.
I haven't seen this year's Forecaster yet but I imagine that John Danks could be this same type of player that the Forecaster can help identify.
Pochucker wrote:By the same token you could have second worst stats every week and win --but we both know odds of either happening are astronomical . So luck for the most part is same for all over a full season.
As far as looking back and seeing what you could have done better --thats how you learn and get better. Those who write failures off to luck will never be in the top echelon.
I have to disagree with a lot of this, Pochucker. First, I would say that luck is not the same for all over a full season. I know a six-month season is a long time, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's long enough to even things out. Some teams just get the injury bug or dramatic dropoffs or "out of nowheres" that nobody could have reasonably saw coming.
Second, yes, there are always times where you can look back and see you could have done some things better, but you also have to weigh that against could you REASONABLY have been able to make that decision at the time? Was there really evidence at the time showing you that you should have done X? I usually find that at least half of my mistakes were correct strategy at the time based on what I knew then. In poker, I wouldn't change a thing. Just keep making decisions based on correct strategy and over the course of time I will come out ahead. In poker, math always knows the correct strategy. But when you're dealing with humans instead of cards you're not dealing with a full deck, and math can only assure you of a championship on paper.
Finally, in regards to luck, I think it has to do with what league you're in and whether or not you believe there is a "wall" you hit when studying fantasy baseball. If you are in a competitive league full of knowledgeable owners who are all active, have all done their homework, and all have internet access, then why is it that a majority of the teams will fail? Because only one can win. We are now in an era of people who have grown up playing fantasy sports, are more knowledgeable than they've been in the past, and when they're lazy they can rely on an extraordinary amount of real-time fantasy assistance from the internet. So leagues that are this competitive are not uncommon. In the past it was the team that was most active that had the advantage, but now it's not unusual for all owners to be extremely active.
If you believe in "the wall" then you also believe you can only be so prepared, and that probably most of your league is equally prepared. In this sense, I think it's okay to chalk up your losses to luck. In fact, in some ways I have become a better owner once I realized the hand that luck played in fantasy sports. It allowed me to take a step back and make more patient and even-keeled roster management decisions. But it's not like we're throwing our hands up in the air, saying it's all about luck, and that strategy and study aren't still powerful mechanisms. Coming to luck realization puts many of us in the same place in their fantasy career that Shandler is - we recognize the role of luck and the fallacy of stat projections. We now believe that looking at playing time, injury history, in-draft salary management, etc. is what will put us ahead. If we are right, then it was our realization about luck that made us better owners.
It's a little relieving to come to this realization and turn some of that pressure we put on ourselves over to Lady Luck. There's only so much we can do. Have fun with it. Baseball players are humans, and you can never forecast humans accurately. We have moods and personal relationships, our bodies and health fail, we get distracted, etc. and when your guy steps on the mound or in the batters box we have no idea what's he's taking out there with him that won't show up on even the geekiest stat sheet.
More like thats why I dont play fantasy football. The real and fantasy game are so different from baseball its not funny. So as I stated previously if I don't feel I have enough control I wont play it.
Pochucker wrote:More like thats why I dont play fantasy football. The real and fantasy game are so different from baseball its not funny. So as I stated previously if I don't feel I have enough control I wont play it.
...kinda what I was implying...
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I spent some time reading through the book and looking through the draft guides included at the end. In looking at the draft guide with the players ranked by position within tiers, does anyone else feel that the scale/scoring the book uses overvalues speed guys? I seem to see a lot of speed guys ranked higher than I would have expected (see Pierre, Bourn, Gardner). Now that I'm writing this, it seems fairly specific to OF's. Has this been discussed in previous years?
I believe luck is almost everywhere. But in fantasy bb, i don't really buy it much. The team that wins, had the right guys. Everybody else didn't. If it could be proven that fantasy bb was 80% skill and 20% luck, i might be ok with that.
I have played money keeper leagues for 25 years, with players across the nation. Many players have been there 10-15 years. You can tell who is elite, who is average, and who is wasting their time. I can only remember once, a suspect owner winning. In a 10 year span of the various leagues, an average owner wins once. The other 9 winners come from the 3-4 elite, or good players in the league.
I just don't believe in excuses in fantasy bb. The winner picked the right players. From my experience, the top 30% of the players, win almost all the time.
I like the Forecaster and BP. But i never take anything from one source. Gather as much useful info as you can, then go from there.
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