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My 2012 Keepers

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My 2012 Keepers

Postby Element » Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:52 pm

My keepers aren't due for a while, but would like to hear the Cafe's input. I am in a 12 team, 5x5 (OBP instead of runs scored) league going into it's 16th year. There is a $260 draft cap. There is also NO BENCH. All players are active. There is also a limit of 10 add/drop moves per season (ML & DL moves are free). IMO, this add a lot of emphasis on the draft. Also, teams with the more reliable pitching generally performs best since we cannot stream or ride the hot arms for a month or so at a time.

I need to fill the following roster spots with my $260.Here are also the players that I would at least consider for my roster. I can keep up to 7 of them, but don't NEED to keep 7. DH's qualify as OF'ers. A player needs 20 games played at the position to qualify there. The two UI spots CANNOT play the same position.

C-
C-
1B-Lance Berkman (1B/OF) $10
2B-Ben Zobrist (2B/OF) $19
3B-Pablo Sandoval $16
SS-
UI-
UI-
OF-Matt Kemp $29
OF-Michael Bourn $12
OF-Bryce Harper $6
OF-Jay Bruce $21
OF-
OF-

P-Clayton Kershaw $21
P-Stephan Strasburg $12
P-Felix Hernandez $32
P-Jaime Garcia $11
P-
P-
P-
P-
P-

The above salaries would be their 2012 numbers. It would be +$5/yr each season thereafter.

Generally speaking, I also look at the upcoming season and want to pick the best players ... not always the best long term guys. So someone like Berkman (OBP monster) at $10 is a good option in my eyes. I usually shed a bunch of keepers at the deadline for upgrades & this past season was no different. Harper I feel differently about and would like to keep him around.

If I had to pick right now I am leaning toward Berkman, Sandoval, Kemp, Harper, Kershaw & Strasburg. That would leave me with one more that I could keep, but I'm not blown away by any of the other prices. It would be fun to keep Felix with the other two that I have. I could push 650+ K's with just 3 guys. It's more that I would generally allocate to pitching though (Felix was a deadline pickup) & in 10+ yrs in this league I ALWAYS have a hard time in the wins category.

Thoughts?
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby onitapgr » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:00 pm

1B-Lance Berkman (1B/OF) $10
3B-Pablo Sandoval $16
OF-Matt Kemp $29
OF-Michael Bourn $12
OF-Jay Bruce $21
P-Clayton Kershaw $21
P-Stephan Strasburg $12

Unless he is an opening day starter, I don't think you should keep Harper, especially with no bench.

All of these guys are decent values...
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:51 pm

Good options to choose from. I'd tend to agree with the above poster, though. Having no bench and so few add/drops makes Harper a risky proposition. I'd say the odds of him being fantasy relevant in 2012 are 50% at best. He didn't exactly tear up the AFL and he wasn't brilliant when he got promoted to AA, either. He's going to be a stud, but I don't think it will be next year.

I agree that keeping Felix is very tempting. However, at +$5/year there's almost no chance you'd keep him for 2013, and with pitching being more fungible than hitting I'd probably roll the dice on some riskier pitchers and allocate more funds to hitting. You're not keeping a C/2B/SS, and at in at least one of those spots you'll probably want a top guy.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby Urban Cohorts » Wed Nov 23, 2011 8:23 pm

1B-Lance Berkman (1B/OF) $10
3B-Pablo Sandoval $16
OF-Matt Kemp $29
OF-Michael Bourn $12
OF-Jay Bruce $21

P-Clayton Kershaw $21
P-Stephan Strasburg $12

These would be my choices. I love Berkman at $10. Sandoval, Bourn, and Bruce all look like good bargains too. Kemp is good at $29 as well. Tough to cut Felix, but Kershaw and Strasuburg should provide really good value at those prices.

I agree with the above comments about Harper. If he isn't starting, and your bench is active, go with another option who you know will be playing.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby Element » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:38 pm

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. I can stash Harper. ML and DL moves are free. If he starts the season in the minors I can place him on my ML roster and pick up someone else at no cost. I had him at $1 this past year with hopes that he would receive the call this season. I could attempt to toss him back, but there is no promise that I can get him back below $6. He'd be $11 next season & I could see him up for good by then. Heyward had similar hype and went for $16 as a rookie.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby Urban Cohorts » Thu Nov 24, 2011 12:58 am

Element wrote:I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. I can stash Harper. ML and DL moves are free. If he starts the season in the minors I can place him on my ML roster and pick up someone else at no cost. I had him at $1 this past year with hopes that he would receive the call this season. I could attempt to toss him back, but there is no promise that I can get him back below $6. He'd be $11 next season & I could see him up for good by then. Heyward had similar hype and went for $16 as a rookie.


Oh, I understand now. Yes, I would say if you have faith in Harper and are willing to wait a year, I would cut someone and hold onto him at $6. And of the guys I listed, I would most likely cut Bourn. I would not part with the other guys at those prices.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby MaudDib » Fri Nov 25, 2011 10:30 am

3B Sandoval $16
OF-Matt Kemp $29
OF-Michael Bourn $12
OF-Jay Bruce $21

P-Clayton Kershaw $21
P-Stephan Strasburg $12

I am fine with you keeping Harper at $6 but he will quickly become too expensive to keep. Part of me would gamble and throw him back so that I could keep him around longer. But you know your league mates better and should have a good feeling on how expensive he would be at auction.

I would also prefer Garcia over Berkman. Berkman had a bad year in 2010 and then surprised everyone last year. I am not sure I think he can repeat that again. He will continue to play OF which increases the risk he will get hurt. I would rather pay for the young arm that has upside then the an aging OF that hit his peak.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby Urban Cohorts » Fri Nov 25, 2011 2:14 pm

MaudDib wrote:I would also prefer Garcia over Berkman. Berkman had a bad year in 2010 and then surprised everyone last year. I am not sure I think he can repeat that again. He will continue to play OF which increases the risk he will get hurt. I would rather pay for the young arm that has upside then the an aging OF that hit his peak.


For arguments sake, Garcia over Berkman?

I think Garcia is the safe pick (for the reasons you mention about Berkman- old, injury risk in OF, probably wont repeat). That said, I think Berkman is going to be 2012's version of 2011 Paul Konerko. People made a similar case for not drafting Konerko in 2011, but the guy produced over expectations and had a fine season. He was a major steal value wise (I think his MDP was an 8th rounder in 2011). And while I don't see Berkman repeating 2011, I think he can still post solid numbers in 2012. And at $10 for that upside, I take it.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby Element » Mon Nov 28, 2011 3:54 pm

I'm pretty set on holding on to Berkman. The dual position flexibility offers some roster relief when I need to make some DL pickups or trades. Not to mention, this is an OBP league. He's more valuable in this format for sure.

I led the Berkman train last offseason. I drafted him in every single one of my leagues and reaped the rewards. Excluding microfracture surgeries, I will draft almost any former 'vet/star' the year AFTER a big surgery. Puma had 2-3 straight offseasons of surgeries and rehabs. That didn't happen last year. He was finally going into the winter and was able to get back into shape & work on his normal offseason conditioning program. We can't ignore the surgeries that he's had, but for $10 I'd be willing to bet that he could at least post something like 0.285/25/90/0.380 again. The ONLY concern that I have is that he played much deeper into the season than he's used to. TLR did give him plenty of rest down the stretch though.
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Re: My 2012 Keepers

Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Nov 29, 2011 4:32 pm

1B-Lance Berkman $10
3B-Pablo Sandoval $16
OF-Matt Kemp $29
OF-Michael Bourn $12
OF-Bryce Harper $6


P-Clayton Kershaw $21
P-Stephan Strasburg $12
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