lane_anasazi2 wrote:And I'd really, really REALLY like to hear your reason for taking Guerra over Turner.
Because he would have to give up a 14th round pick for a prospect with limited MLB experience. Guerra actually was a decent closer for the LAD and comes at an 18th round pick. Given that Guerra isn't a lock for the closer role, but he will have a shot. And worst case scenario, he becomes the setup man and gets you holds. With so much SP talent on the team, I would rather keep Guerra.
Dodgerbluesc wrote:I'm not sold on Kennedy so I would try to shop him.
I disagree completely. In my mind, getting Kennedy as a 15th round pick is solid gold. Kennedy improved in almost every aspect this season. His K/9 increased, his BB/9 dramatically decreased, his GB% went up, he allowed less HRs, and he logged more innings without getting injured. And a "luck stat"- (BABIP) went up from .256 (2010) to .270 (2011), so I don't see his breakout due to luck. His strand rate was also about average. And to top things off, he is going to be 27! Prime years ahead.
The only downside was his record. He obviously has a slim chance of repeating a 21-4 W-L record. But this guy can pitch.
To each their own. But Kennedy had a 21.9% LD rate last year. 21.9%! Soak that in. I have an easier time believing in an elite BABIP from a guy like Chacin who only allowed 15.4% LD rate. 21.9% isn't fooling anyone. That .270 BABIP is screaming for regression. He was extremely lucky last year. A 3.90 tERA. A 3.44 SIERA. A -91 xFIP- and a 3.50 xFIP. By whatever measure you use he outperformed his peripherals by a wide margin. Add in the fact he threw all of 23.2 IP in 2009, increased his workload by an insane 170 IP in 2010 and added another 28 IP increase this year and he is a huge injury risk IMO. Perfect time to shop him.
I'm not saying a guy with a mid 3's ERA is a bad value in the 15th round - I just think you should maximize his current value and sell high before injury and/or regression hits.
To answer an earlier question, we have to name keepers by 12/31, as we begin a slow draft in January. As a result, I probably won't have a lot of information on Posey's health, although I understand he's already running corners and is expected to be fully ready for spring training. So I don't think you can pass him up, at least not solely for health reasons, since his ceiling is high, and he has made it clear he intends to stay at catcher.
I'm a little surprised there isn't more love for Kimbrel, who was amazing last year. I will draft 14th in odd rounds, so I'd give up the 154th pick overall to take him. Considering that he is likely to be the first closer off many boards, I'd be getting him a good 4 or 5 rounds later than he would otherwise go. Normally, there is no way I'd keep a closer if I only have 7 keepers, but in this case, he's a stud, and I think I'd have to give him the edge over keeping a third starter. It's also a personal thing, typically 9 of my first 10 picks in most drafts are hitters, because I've seldom had trouble building a staff later. So 3 of my 7 keepers being starters makes me squirm. But that's just me.
But don't let ME get involved here, I want YOUR opinion. Give me some more opinions on the top 7 players and 2 rookies.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - Albert Einstein
I'm sure that you can find another closer with the 154th pick. I personally don't like how much he was used this season. It makes me a little nervous for him in 2012. See if you can get someone to buy high on him.
In 14 teamers where you can't get closers as readily as some of the smaller leagues, I would take Kimbrel over your 3rd SP Hudson. I think dependable top closers are a shallow position in bigger leagues.