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Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

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Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby monty797 » Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:34 pm

I'm in a dynasty league that over values pitching. My team is in the process of rebuilding a bit as I've won our league championships the last two years, but this year fell short due to injuries and underperformances.

I was offered a deal on Ricky Romero that I'm pretty sure that I can't turn down, but was looking for a little feedback. I need a little help at my DH position (believe it or not), and can use some depth. My staff consists of the following players. Verlander, Garza, Romero, Buerhle, and my 5th spot kind of rotates around AJ Burnett, Randy Wells, Gavin Floyd, and a few others. I know, that 5th spot is sad but this is a 30 team league so it's a fairly deep staff in reality.

I was offered, Billy Butler, Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly for Ricky Romero straight up.

I'm thinkng that this is a easy deal to accept, but looking for some feedback.
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby ensanimal » Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:29 pm

AS bad as you may need the offense, I really don't see Butler as the answer. Romero, for me, is way to good to give up without getting back a stud, especially in a deep league. If they overvalue pitching, you should be able to get better for Romero.
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby Element » Fri Nov 18, 2011 1:30 am

Can you give some more information regarding your format and scoring?
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby monty797 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:32 am

The league is points based with a lean towards pitching. Normally pitchers will outscore hitters. Romero last year was a 600pt pitcher for example. Butler is a 500pt bat.

The way I am looking at the deal is this way. Romero will give 550-600pts this year (approximately). Butler will give 450-500, Buchholz if healthy should give 450+ pts and both players are going to be starters for my squad which gives me a good swing in points. The other consideration is the person who proposed the trade is in the same division as I am.

That is my thinking at least
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby Element » Fri Nov 18, 2011 3:40 pm

You can't really use total points in your analysis. You can't compare apples to oranges. A player is only as valuable as the player that you can replace him with. How deep is the league? Let's say that there are 12 teams and every team starts one 1B (just an example). Figure out who the 13th best 1B'man was last season. Take Butler's point total from last year minus the point total for the 13th player. Do the same for SP'ers. This gives you a number that you can use to compare (more accurately) value across several positions because it's taking position scarcity into account. I don't use a points based scoring system in any of my baseball leagues, but this is how I prepare (with projections) for my football leagues.

I'd be curious to see how the numbers work out here. I'd still like to know, in more detail, what your scoring system looks like. On the surface I am somewhat in agreement with ensanimal that Romero should net you a better hitter, but we don't really know the details of your scoring format to really give solid advice. I do however like the idea of buying low on Buchholz.
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:04 am

I would like to know what your scoring categories are as well.

That said, I like the deal. For a 30 team league you have a good pitching staff. Verlander AND Garza (who I expect to have a brilliant 2012 campaign) are solid gold. Romero is certainly a good SP, but Buchholz has the talent to be as good, if not better, than Romero (especially if your league has a high emphasis on Wins and Losses). Bulter is a solid player, not great, but not terrible- a player that you will know what you are getting. And with KC improving hitting wise (Gordon breaking out, Franceour having a great season, and Hosmer on the rise), I think Butler could add some more counting stats in 2012. Casey Kelly is the icing on the cake. Not a bad prospect there.
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby hoopsgalnyc » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:40 pm

monty,

i wouldn't take it.

bucholz is a low strikeout guy with a high whip, casey kelly is maybe a b- prospect at this point, and billy butler contributes in 2 categories (avg and maybe RBI).

you're getting three nickels for a quarter. i'd pass.


please check out my post

viewtopic.php?t=437362
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:14 pm

hoopsgalnyc wrote:you're getting three nickels for a quarter. i'd pass.


Couldn't have said it better myself. You've got to take into account the 2 roster spots you'd be giving up.
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby raiders_umpire » Sun Nov 20, 2011 6:35 pm

I would hang onto Romero.
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Re: Is this a no brainer, or am I missing something? *WHIR*

Postby LordMattius » Sun Nov 20, 2011 7:17 pm

Billy Butler really turned the corner last 2nd half. He finally made good on his talent. Buchholz is a solid SP and on par with Romero. Casey Kelly is well a throw in for depth you can stash. I'd take this deal. Billy Butler, Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly
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