I was just given a derelict team in a 10-team keeper auction league. Keeper prices go up by 10% from auction, always rounded up. So someone bought for $10 costs $11 next year and $13 for 2013. Any non-drafted free agent costs $5 for next year. There is no limit on the number of years we can keep a player. Auction and rosters are standard ESPN settings with $260 for draft and 25-man rosters (3 bench). We keep 4 players maximum.
The two guys I'm definitely keeping are Asdrubal Cabrera ($2) and Howard Kendrick ($3). I'd like some advice on my other two picks. Here are the guys I'm considering and what they will cost to keep next year.
Jacoby Ellsbury - $29 Daniel Bard - $2 Johnny Cueto - $2 Scott Baker - $5 Jonathan Sanchez - $3 Alexi Ogando - $5 Clay Buchholz - $5 Ryan Vogelsong - $5 Francisco Liriano - $3
Ellsbury has value at $29 next season, but he won't have long-term value because he'd be $32 in 2013 and $36 in 2014. Clearly Bard's value all depends on if Papelbon gets traded.
So what two guys from that list would you keep (and let's assume Bard will be Boston's closer next year)?
I would most certainly keep Ellsbury. Even in 2013/2014 you aren't paying a terrible price (assuming his production stays near 2010 levels).
I doubt Bard will be a closer for the Sox. With Lackey out for 2012, the Sox only have 3 SP options now (Lester, Beckett, Buchholz). Aceves will most likely not be moved into the rotation, per the GM on a radio interview. He did say however that Bard could be given a place in the rotation. I'm thinking this is true as the Sox probably won't acquire more than 1 FA SP and have no SP in the farm that are ready yet.
For the other keeper, I would probably take Bard, Ogando, or Baker. I think Baker has the most talent but also stands to be the first injured.
The best news here is it might have been a derelict team in 2013, but with only 4 keepers and no bad contracts to be saddled with, you can contend right away. Since you only listed 1 expensive player in your intitial options, I'm wondering if there might have been another expensice contract you didn't post. In many 10 team auctions, you end up with a "stars & scrubs" roster unlike deeper leagues where you want every player to be a value pick. What many managers try to do is spend big on as many good players as they can, then fill in the rest of their roster with minimim bids just because there are so many good players that won't get auctioned in a 10 teamer. Since you didn't consider Ells a sure thing like so many of the replys, maybe there is another higher priced player you didn't list right away. Cueto, Ogando, Buch...all decent players at a small cost, but thats how all the rosters end up being filled out in a 10 teamer. Maybe there isn't another $20-30 player on your roster to consider, but 10 team auctions play a little differently than their big brothers