Cueto vs Garcia

[Urban Cohorts]

They had similar GB% in 2011 but Cuetos was a career best, and way way above his norm.

This is a good point.

IF Cueto can sustain this GB rate and keep improving his K rate (like he did in the second half), he does hold more upside than Garcia IMO. And Garcia did have a not-so-great second half (which I attribute to getting tired), with a worsening K and BB rate. However, Garcia did have an unusually high BABIP and low LOB%, whereas Cueto had a lucky BABIP and an average LOB%. Cueto also pitches in a hitters park, which doesn't help his case.

All that said, I think Garcia is the safe bet and Cueto is the wild card. Could be better, but odds are he won't (at least for 2012).

[converge241]

Cueto has the higher ceiling and higher risk and Garcia is the safer option. They are very close so maybe depending on what you prefer in that line may help make the call.

gun to my head if both in front of me id probaly take Garcia

[RedHopeful]

Question - who was the last guy to be consistently good year in and year out with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph?

[Urban Cohorts]

Question - who was the last guy to be consistently good year in and year out with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph?

Greg Maddux

[Pogotheostrich]

Question - who was the last guy to be consistently good year in and year out with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph?

Top 10 SP WAR for the last decade has 2: Mark Buehrle, and Andy Pettitte
Tim Hudson is pretty close to with an average velocity of 90.8.

[RedHopeful]

Question - who was the last guy to be consistently good year in and year out with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph?

Top 10 SP WAR for the last decade has 2: Mark Buehrle, and Andy Pettitte
Tim Hudson is pretty close to with an average velocity of 90.8.

Thank you Pogo. Greg Maddux was a super rare bird but I like the Buehrle and Pettitte mentions. Hudson has always been rosterable but the other two have been on/off the WW numerous seasons. I swear I'm not trying to downlplay Garcia as much as just put it out there that softer throwers have a much more difficult time posting consistent value.

[Urban Cohorts]

Thank you Pogo. Greg Maddux was a super rare bird but I like the Buehrle and Pettitte mentions. Hudson has always been rosterable but the other two have been on/off the WW numerous seasons. I swear I'm not trying to downlplay Garcia as much as just put it out there that softer throwers have a much more difficult time posting consistent value.

I'm assuming you are a Reds fan, RedHopeful. You would be the guy to ask then:

Did you notice any sort of change in Cueto's delivery/mechanics/pitch types this season vs. previous seasons? He had quite the dramatic increase in GB%. If it was luck based, that does not bode well. But if it was due to a change in his approach, success will continue. Did you see/hear anything about this?

[davidmarver]

Question - who was the last guy to be consistently good year in and year out with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph?

Contemporarily, Jered Weaver throws a fastball averaging less than 90 MPH.

Cueto bugs me, in general. His stuff is too hittable, and raw pitch numbers support this. Even his pitches outside the strike-zone have contact made at a high rate, and he has too many pitches without any of them being consistently good. I think the only thing working in his favor is that he seems legitimately talented -- and improving -- at keeping the ball in the park.

[pjalst]

Question - who was the last guy to be consistently good year in and year out with a fastball averaging less than 90 mph?

Contemporarily, Jered Weaver throws a fastball averaging less than 90 MPH.

Cueto bugs me, in general. His stuff is too hittable, and raw pitch numbers support this. Even his pitches outside the strike-zone have contact made at a high rate, and he has too many pitches without any of them being consistently good. I think the only thing working in his favor is that he seems legitimately talented -- and improving -- at keeping the ball in the park.

When you say hitable, do you mean contact % which includes GB and FB? Or do you mean actual hits?

[RedHopeful]

I'm assuming you are a Reds fan, RedHopeful. You would be the guy to ask then:

Did you notice any sort of change in Cueto's delivery/mechanics/pitch types this season vs. previous seasons? He had quite the dramatic increase in GB%. If it was luck based, that does not bode well. But if it was due to a change in his approach, success will continue. Did you see/hear anything about this?

Yeah, he absolutely made a change, not only mentally but physically. This season, Cueto adopted an old school delivery. Besides the obvious deception that now throws off a hitters timing, it's done several other things that should keep his numbers fairly sustainable. First, it was regarded in the past that Cueto would tip his pitches. New delivery definitely eliminates that. Second, he used to have a problem with his shoulder flying open. Now that the delivery keeps him closed, his control and ability to keep the ball down should be good to go.