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Cueto vs Garcia

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Cueto vs Garcia

Postby pjalst » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:11 pm

Which SP do you think is the best option over the next couple of years, Johnny Cueto or Jaime Garcia?
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby MaudDib » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:19 pm

I think I would take Garcia but I could see them ending with very similar numbers. I don't think Cueto will match a low 2 ERA where as I think Garcia can do better than a mid 3 ERA. Garcia should give you slightly better K numbers and plays for a team on a better team in a better pitching league.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby pjalst » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:34 pm

MaudDib wrote:I think I would take Garcia but I could see them ending with very similar numbers. I don't think Cueto will match a low 2 ERA where as I think Garcia can do better than a mid 3 ERA. Garcia should give you slightly better K numbers and plays for a team on a better team in a better pitching league.


I like Cueto, but his low K #'s scares me, leads me to belive his low ERA might be due to luck. But on the other hand he has steady declines in H, R, ER, and BB across the board. I'm an AL fan so I don't get to see him throw much, so I'm relying on you Cin and NL fans to help me on this one.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:59 pm

I like Garcia better. Cueto's lack of K's is concerning.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby RedHopeful » Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:38 pm

pjalst wrote:
MaudDib wrote:I think I would take Garcia but I could see them ending with very similar numbers. I don't think Cueto will match a low 2 ERA where as I think Garcia can do better than a mid 3 ERA. Garcia should give you slightly better K numbers and plays for a team on a better team in a better pitching league.


I like Cueto, but his low K #'s scares me, leads me to belive his low ERA might be due to luck. But on the other hand he has steady declines in H, R, ER, and BB across the board. I'm an AL fan so I don't get to see him throw much, so I'm relying on you Cin and NL fans to help me on this one.

Cueto. Yeah, I'm a homer but his drop in K's did not mean he was lucky. This season, he attempted to pitch to contact + with his more deceptive delivery, I feel he's got a legitimate chance to repeat similar low ERA numbers.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby raiders_umpire » Mon Oct 31, 2011 9:30 pm

Pretty close, but I would lean towards Cueto improving some more next year. I am not saying the ERA will improve, but I think he improve as a SP overall.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby bayside » Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:44 pm

I like jaime garcia much better.
Seems like his skills are much more repeatable than cuetos.
They had similar GB% in 2011 but Cuetos was a career best, and way way above his norm. Garcia is pretty much an extreme gb pitcher and has always been one.

Cueto also has a really weak K rate (6 K/9 and ~16% K rate), and his swinging strike rate has been trending down as well (under 8% in 2011).. Not much chance for him to ever be any better than average in K's.
Garcia SwSt% has been above 10% in each of his 2 full big league years, and his K% was 19% in each year, good for ~7.3 K/9.
Garcias BB rate was also better than Cuetos last year, and id expect that to continue.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby pjalst » Tue Nov 01, 2011 8:52 pm

I thought you guys were going to help, you've confused me even more. There are good arguements on both sides, but Bayside was really helpful with his post. I guess I could flip a coin.
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:21 pm

bayside wrote:I like jaime garcia much better.
Seems like his skills are much more repeatable than cuetos.
They had similar GB% in 2011 but Cuetos was a career best, and way way above his norm. Garcia is pretty much an extreme gb pitcher and has always been one.

Cueto also has a really weak K rate (6 K/9 and ~16% K rate), and his swinging strike rate has been trending down as well (under 8% in 2011).. Not much chance for him to ever be any better than average in K's.
Garcia SwSt% has been above 10% in each of his 2 full big league years, and his K% was 19% in each year, good for ~7.3 K/9.
Garcias BB rate was also better than Cuetos last year, and id expect that to continue.

On the surface, sure it screams anomaly. But, in this case, you can't just stop at the statistics. Delving deeper and as I have already alluded to, he changed his entire approach to pitching. This year he became a pitcher where his primary goal was to CONSTANTLY keep the hitter off balance. Therefore, you've got to partially disregard the K rate and swinging strike rate as his stuff is positively still there. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see both rates go back up to some degree. Once he becomes so comfortable with his command, he'll probably start skinning the cat multiple ways. Sure seems Halladay among others have gone this way with their careers.

Just seems like Cueto possesses that extra gear and fans should applaud that a guy who throws pretty hard made it a priority to learn how to pitch. Garcia, on the other hand, seems like he's the type who if he loses just a little bit of his control, he'll quickly turn very vanilla...
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Re: Cueto vs Garcia

Postby bayside » Tue Nov 01, 2011 11:37 pm

RedHopeful wrote:he changed his entire approach to pitching. This year he became a pitcher where his primary goal was to CONSTANTLY keep the hitter off balance. Therefore, you've got to partially disregard the K rate and swinging strike rate as his stuff is positively still there. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see both rates go back up to some degree. Once he becomes so comfortable with his command, he'll probably start skinning the cat multiple ways. Sure seems Halladay among others have gone this way with their careers.

that may be true, but dont forget that Garcia will be in just his 3rd full MLB season. Even tho they debuted in the same year and are the same age, Cueto will be going into 5th full season. Garcia is less experienced and still learning how to get hitters out as well, and has more room for improvement than Cueto does.

Also, last year Garcia threw 194+ innnings, which is already 10 innings more than Cueto has ever thrown in his career.
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