MaudDib wrote:I am pretty shocked that people are more willing to gamble on three rookies than a yearly Cy Young candidate. I know SP are pretty volatile but so are rookies. Most rookies won't match people's projections there second year. It takes time especially because of how young they are. Occasionally you get a Longoria, Braun or Pujols but more likely you will get one of the Uptons, Heyward or Strasburg. All four would have been on this kind of list and all have had issues. Some it takes time for them to get going, while others have had injuries that have kept them back. Who knows but Wainwright is healthy now and should be at full strength for Spring Training and ready to roll come the start of the season. If this was one of those situations where we didn't know when he would be ready, then I take the rookies but Wainwright is a top 5 SP when healthy and is unlikely to be any different next year.
Rant over. Just amazed that people are more willing to take a risk with rookies because they have never done wrong or you want to have the next big thing on your team rather than take the guy that has already shown to be an all-star. Very few Aces out there and Wainwright is one of those guys that you can trust every time he pitches.
You make some very solid points here that I cannot counter. Yes, Wainwright is an elite top-5 pitcher when healthy (and all signs point to this being so in 2012). Yes, top prospects/hot young hitters do not always pan out to their expectations (the examples you listed were spot on).
However, I think that since the owner has all three of Lawrie, Hosmer, and Jennings that it would be a shame to drop one and then have that guy turn into the next star player. Is there a guarantee that any of them pan out? No, but the potential for becoming elite is there. And with the poster being able to keep them for 4 years, I would be willing to lose Wainwright (who is not 100% risk free) for that payoff. And based on his league settings (an extra CI and MI), I feel that Lawrie and Hosmer are must keeps.
And then the poster said he also had two 1st round picks. Most likely, more hitters are going to be kept and there will be better SP options in the first few rounds of the draft. So at the very least, he could draft some quality SP right out of the gate (maybe even Wainwright). If Lawrie, Hosmer, or Jennings don't break out, and he wants to cut ties, he can trade them at the deadline as they will retain value to non-contenders or rebuilders. But if Wainwright has a setback, he retains minimal value.