Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

[kaiser]

You absolutely take that trade. Without question.

Let's see...

Stephen Strasburg in one hand

On the other, Felix Hernandez and Hanley Ramirez? Or Reyes? Or Hamilton? Yes please...

[bayside]

Thats my first instinct as well...

but does the 5 years of Strasburg come into play at all? At what point would you prepare a little for future years?


And do you think any other offense in a 12 team league would be able to compete with my current keepers?
There has to be a point at which more hitting talent becomes overkill, but not sure how you would determine that before the season begins.

[nolesox]

Thats my first instinct as well...

but does the 5 years of Strasburg come into play at all? At what point would you prepare a little for future years?


And do you think any other offense in a 12 team league would be able to compete with my current keepers?
There has to be a point at which more hitting talent becomes overkill, but not sure how you would determine that before the season begins.

To answer your first question you prepare for future years the same way you did when you drafted Hosmer,Stras and Lawrie this year and do your homework.But you have to prioritize sometimes and pick a path. My thoughts always will be go for it when your in a position to win( which you are especially w/ this deal), this year is always more important than the next. In this case your not only getting the better player(Felix >> Stras) you are getting the 2 best players Felix and what ever player you take w/ that extra pick among the guys you mentioned(preferably one of those SS and one of the SP although would be tough to pass on Longo or Votto if they are there at that point you'd probably need to look into trading Lawrie or Miggy but better for another discussion after you've made this deal and know exactly what players are available and what pick 1-2-3 you actually have.Even though the SS and SP are a better fit Votto and Longo are the greater value........)
To answer you second question. IMO the only point at which compiling hitting talent becomes overkill is when your run out of lineup spots to put those hitters into. You are not in that position as far as I can tell and w/ the pitchers you say are out there on top of Felix who will already be in tow you will be set up to dominate.
Don't over think things. I understand Stras is really sexy and controlling him for 5 years is really tough to give up, but don't let that keep you from cashing in on a great opportunity to set yourself apart and win right now. After all you will still have a really nice bunch of keepers to help you keep on winning the following years as well.

[davidmarver]

I wouldn't do the trade.

Even if Strasburg disappoints, he's still likely a significant steal for his 20th, 18th, and 14th round seasons. That surplus value alone probably exceeds Felix + 1's, let alone the upside.

There's also no such thing as too much future value in leagues that don't penalize you with some form of contract years. I wouldn't use the Lawrie, etc. argument as a reason to pull the trigger.

[bayside]

Ya there's no question that strasburg would provide more surplus value than felix + pick.
The 1st rd pick cannot return any surplus value and felix as a 3rd rd is priced pretty much right inline or slightly above market value, so not much room for surplus there either.

The question is, are their combined actual values worth more than the massive surplus that stras is likely to generate? So were right back to square 1.

[nolesox]

I wouldn't do the trade.

Even if Strasburg disappoints, he's still likely a significant steal for his 20th, 18th, and 14th round seasons. That surplus value alone probably exceeds Felix + 1's, let alone the upside.

There's also no such thing as too much future value in leagues that don't penalize you with some form of contract years. I wouldn't use the Lawrie, etc. argument as a reason to pull the trigger.

No doubt Stras is a steal whether he disappoints or not. But if Stras disappoints it would severely hamper his chances at winning this year. Add in the risk Hanley/Reyes bring w/ them. Adding Felix and 2 of those guys greatly increases the margin for error and the upside to win now. If your concern is future value then keep Stras for sure he'll look really nice on your roster for the following 4 or 5 years. But to me it just comes down to winning when you can, you get a chance to win you take it. Felix plus 2 of those guys gives you more margin for error if any of those guys disappoint or get hurt and give you unbelievably more upside if they all pan. Goodluck.