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Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

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Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby bayside » Sat Oct 29, 2011 10:38 pm

In my H2H keeper league we are allowed to keep up to 8 players, but only 5 max in the first 10 rounds.
Each keeper costs a draft pick based on where the player was originally taken, adn draft cost increases each year.
You can only keep 1 player per round (unless you have acquired additional draft picks via trade)

I won this year in the first yr of the league, and immediately after the finals the runner up offered me:
his 2012 1st round pick (#9 overall) + Felix (a 3rd round keeper)
for my Strasburg (a 2Oth round keeper)


some things to consider:
-stras would be a 20th rounders in 2012, then an 18th, then 14th, then 6th
-felix is a 3rd in 2012 and would become a 1st rounder in 2013, so basically will be cut by whoever owns him after 2012.
- i will be likely be the only owner to have a pick to use in each of round 2/3/4

Lincecum and Lester will be the best available pitchers in the draft as im cutting them.
If i make the trade Hanley would also be available because the other guy wouldnt be able to keep him. So the best players id be able to use with that #1 pick would be Hanley, Arod, R Zimmerman, Crawford, Reyes, Hamilton.
They would all be 1 year rentals, and the bigger problem is that i already have my OF and 3B locked up
see my keepers below:

MCab rd 1
Bautista rd 5
J Upton rd 6
Ellsbury rd 9
Granderson rd 12
Strasburg rd 20
Lawrie rd 23
Pineda or Hosmer rd 24


Tempting because with my offense + Felix + the picks I'd become the clear cut favorite in 2012,
but essentially id be trading 5 years of extremely cheap Stras for a couple of 1 year rentals.
Do you do it?
Last edited by bayside on Mon Oct 31, 2011 8:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby MaudDib » Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:11 am

this is tough but I don't think I would make that trade. It might make you the favorite but that doesn't guarantee you a win and you have a pretty good shot at winning already. I would rather have SS for 4 years at unbelievably cheap prices then trade for a slightly better chance of repeating next year only.
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby raiders_umpire » Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:19 am

I make that trade in a heartbeat. Felix is an absolute monster even if you can only have him for one year. And to throw on top, you get your choice of Hanley or Reyes with the pick to go with your offense. Yes, make the deal and worry about 2012 keepers after you win again next year. Strasburg will probably be a great deal next offseason, but you already have Lawrie and Hosmer on super deals for the future. Take the deal for Felix and run.
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby bayside » Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:04 pm

i should mention though that i have the first pick in round 2 next yr...
and the only 1st rounder that i can see possibly being cut is Hanley (even if i reject the trade. if i accept hanley MUST be cut)
so i will be able draft reyes/hanley regardless of whether i make this trade.

basically the trade would allow me to guarantee myself Felix + Lincecum/Lester for 2012
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby nolesox » Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:58 pm

It's tough but Felix plus any of those players mentioned for Stras no matter how cheap he is I think is a deal you have to do. Assuming that I understand the situation correctly that would mean your locking up Felix plus 2 out of Reyes,Hanley and Zimmerman. That puts you in the catbird seat for next year, filling your 2 biggest holes allowing you to play Bautista in the OF.
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby bayside » Mon Oct 31, 2011 5:34 pm

Bautista will be playing OF regardless because i also have Lawrie for 3B. For that reason Zimmerman is not one of my targets.

yes, i think you are understanding correctly, but ill clarify just in case.

no trade:
Stras for 5+ years, and
1 of: Lincecum/Lester/Hanley/Reyes for 1 year.

with trade:
Felix for 1 year, and
2 of: Lincecum/Lester/Hanley/Reyes for 1 year each
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby MaudDib » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:26 pm

bayside wrote:Bautista will be playing OF regardless because i also have Lawrie for 3B. For that reason Zimmerman is not one of my targets.

yes, i think you are understanding correctly, but ill clarify just in case.

no trade:
Stras for 5+ years, and
1 of: Lincecum/Lester/Hanley/Reyes for 1 year.

with trade:
Felix for 1 year, and
2 of: Lincecum/Lester/Hanley/Reyes for 1 year each


I still say no. 4 years of Strasburg isn't worth 1 year of those four guys. I could see Felix and Strasburg finishing with similar numbers so giving that all up for a couple rent a players.
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby nolesox » Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:32 pm

Yeah overlooked Lawrie there, either way I think you answered your own question there. Felix and 2 of those guys >>>>> Stras and one regardless on years of control. Upside and prospects are great and you seem to do your homework and target those guys. And you'll continue to find value there, but I think you still have to value winning now over winning in the future especially when you can give yourself an advantage of extra "elite" players. There will be other late round steals w/ years of control, there is every year, Hence you having Lawrie and Stras amongst others. Having 3 of those guys instead of 2 is a distinct advantage that if you come up short next year having Stras on the cheap won't make you feel any better about.
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Nov 01, 2011 10:06 am

Agree with the majority that you make the trade. ;-D
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Re: Trade away Strasburg for Felix + #1 pick in keeper?

Postby MaudDib » Tue Nov 01, 2011 12:38 pm

MaudDib wrote:
bayside wrote:Bautista will be playing OF regardless because i also have Lawrie for 3B. For that reason Zimmerman is not one of my targets.

yes, i think you are understanding correctly, but ill clarify just in case.

no trade:
Stras for 5+ years, and
1 of: Lincecum/Lester/Hanley/Reyes for 1 year.

with trade:
Felix for 1 year, and
2 of: Lincecum/Lester/Hanley/Reyes for 1 year each


I still say no. 4 years of Strasburg isn't worth 1 year of those four guys. I could see Felix and Strasburg finishing with similar numbers so giving that all up for a couple rent a players.


One other thing to think about is that three of those four guys have some questions marks surrounding them. Hanley had an awful year and is having surgery in the off-season so no guarantee that he comes back to his old self. Reyes had an outstanding year but who knows what kind of year he will have next season. He is more likely to have a season like 2010 which equates to a drop in BA, Runs and SB and that is assuming he stays healthy. Reyes has not proven that he can stay healthy for an entire year. Lester was not really his dominate self last year either. Of these three, he is the safer bet but his K's were down and his ERA is really not that great when you consider that SP numbers across the board a better. He plays on a good team so wins shouldn't be a problem but there are a few things to worry about with him. So the question is do you trade Strasburg for one year of Felix and then draft 2 SP because if you take either of those SS, you could run into more problems. Again I think you have a pretty good team now and should compete next year where as if you do this trade, you could actually hurt your team for next year and then really trying to play catch up in 2013. Just not worth the gamble. If there were more proven hitters to be drafted then I probably do this trade but there is no one guy that I would love to have outside of Lincecum which you can draft anyway.
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