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2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

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2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby bayside » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:59 am

Im trying to decide on my final 2 keepers.
The 6 I have locked in so far are:
MCab - round 1
Bautista - round 5
J Upton - round 6
Ellsbury - round 9
Granderson - round 12
Strasburg - round 20


I can keep either Lawrie or Hosmer in round 24.
-If I keep Lawrie hed be my 3B even though i already have the undisputed #1 fantasy 3B in the game.
(we start 4 OF in this league so there would be room for both Bautista (OF) and Lawrie (3B) to start, without using either guy in my lone UT slot)
If i keep Hosmer hed lock up my UT slot every day, which wouldnt necessarily be a bad thing as there are obv much worse options (we do not use a CI)
basically im looking for best overall production regardless of position here.

and I can keep either Beachy or Pineda in round 22.
Pineda got more work this year (171 IP) and should be unleashed for a full 200 inning work load next season. Beachy only threw 146 innings due to DL time and may be limited to 170 or so.

Most people seem to agree that Pineda has better stuff, but the numbers say otherwise.
Beachy has a better K%, K/9, and K/BB, and therefore a better FIP.
Pineda allows fewer hits/inning
BB rates are nearly identical.
HR rates are also very very similar with just a slight edge going to Pineda.

But the one things that scares me a little about Pineda is that he throws sliders over 30% (Tommy John in the future? :-{ ) of the time, and does not yet have a relieable 3rd pitch... Beachy is only about 19% sliders and also has a well developed curve AND changeup - so 4 quality pitches.
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby grammysboy » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:29 am

Hos is going to be a stud. It may not be next year. It may depend on whether the Royals get any pitching next year or not, but Lawrie appears to be a more consistent player. He may not have HR's in bunches, but he probably won't go three games without a hit either. I really like both players, but I lean toward Lawrie.

I saw Pineda pitch early in the year. He is HUGE! I worry about him being able to stay in shape along with your concerns about possible injury. No doubt he is impressive, but like the Hossmer/Lawrie comparison, I think Beachy is a more consistant player.

If you want to impress your buddies, keep Hosmer and Pineda. If you want consistant production for the whole season keep Lawrie and Beachy. IMO
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby MadDog36 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:19 am

Easy decision. Will Bautista carry his 3b eligibility since he's OF full time now? Is Lawrie going to be 2b or 3b. Lawrie's positional value to me makes me select him over Hosmer. 1b is so much easier to fill. Lawrie is a top shelf 3b or 2b (Utley Jr) he is. So you want to keep Utley or Konerko? I'd go Utley. That's who I would keep. See long term you want a 3b keeper and Bautista won't be 3b I don't even think next year....he will be in your OF so that opens 3b for a good young player, Lawrie which I love to have a top young player at a premium position....I'd rather have Lawrie than Arod/Aram etc and no way you can get Longoria or Wright so you have about the best young 3b in the game IMO.

For pitching: that is truly difficult. Don't know your scoring system one bit. See, Seattle will be struggling again next year to be a winner so wins probably will be tough for Pineda whereas the Braves can't do any worse with their pitching staff they have and some money coming off the books to upgrade SS (maybe a run at Reyes).

Beachy no doubt can rack up the Ks...he had that track record in the minors and now at the majors. He's all but gaurenteed a slot in the rotation while they try to deal Lowe and Jurrjens leave a slot open for Teheran, Minor or Delgado. Next year the rotation will look like: Huddy, Hanson, Beachy, Minor/Lowe/Jurrjens, Teheran, the rest will be in pen or AAA rotation.

He doesn't allow a lot of homers and keeps his walks within reason so there no reason to think he won't repeat his success. He does give up his share of hits and runs but with his good control and lower homer ratio I think he will eventually become a low-end fantasy ace.

Pineda on the other hand has only 2 dynamite pitches compared to Beachy's control of 3-4. That will help Beachy in the long run last as a major leaguer plus his windup is smooth and fluid!

Pineda certainly has intangibles in his favor, but it would not shock me to see them eventually turn him into a closer...if he starts to have arm problems.

Beachy profiles as a major league starter for years to come. Not only that, he's got other electric arms around him and for next season he will draw great matchups most of the time. I like Beachy here for next year...
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby raiders_umpire » Sat Oct 01, 2011 11:09 am

Lawrie and Beachy if Lawrie and Homser is not a option.
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby hoopsgalnyc » Sat Oct 01, 2011 3:14 pm

bayside,

i'd keep lawrie over hosmer. it's a toss up who will have better production but it's much more valuable to have a 3b with that kind of production. you could easily trade him or bautista.

i'd keep beachy over pineda. i love pineda, and have had him in my keeper since he was dominating single A. but, his innings increase from 2010 to 2011 was over 30ip, and he has a history of arm troubles. really stupid move by seattle. the increased workload suggests some regression next year. plus, seattle stinks and he'll be lucky to win 10 games. i'd keep beachy for these reasons and the others you pointed to.

please check out my post on keeping lester vs. kennedy and lmk what you think. i'm not keeping michael young and i love posts that use stats.

viewtopic.php?t=436990
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby zooiiks » Tue Oct 04, 2011 2:52 am

Sucks if you can't keep both Lawrie and Hosmer. Of the two, Lawrie's a no-brainer. 3B is a sinkhole. Gordon's losing eligibility. Bautista might next year. Aramis/Young/Beltre/Youk/Chipper/Arod are all up there in age. Wright/Zimmerman can't stay healthy. Outside of Longoria, who also has injury troubles, everyone else is pretty pedestrian. Lawrie just a natural hitter and if he can stay at 3b, that's huge.

Beachy v Pineda, I think I agree w/ the crowd and go Beachy. Pineda really faded down the stretch and does have that history of arm problems. You have to wonder how that'll affect his performance next year.

Lawrie and Beachy for me.

Please help w/ mine! Thanks! http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=437095
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby bayside » Tue Oct 04, 2011 4:12 am

Thanks for the replies so far, appreciate it.

I could keep both Lawrie and Hosmer, but then the only pitcher Id have locked up would be Strasburg. Sure hes insanely talented, but counting on him as my #1 is extremely risky. Id rather have 2 young, cheap potential aces to somewhat mitigate the risk.
Ill already have the best offense in the league with the 6 hitters im keeping, so I'd really prefer to keep 2 pitchers.

Also this league is very heavily starting pitcher influenced - we count both Wins and QS and nearly all the top pitchers will be kept.
This year most teams carried 9-10 SP's (24 man rosters)

How much earlier do you think Hosmer will be drafted next year before Pineda/Beachy?
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby bayside » Sat Oct 08, 2011 8:59 pm

Anyone else?

Leave me a link, ill be happy to help you out too
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby raiders_umpire » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:16 am

bayside wrote:I could keep both Lawrie and Hosmer,



Well that settles it, keep both Lawrie and Hosmer. With only 8 keepers per team, you should be able to build a very good staff to work with.
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Re: 2 Keepers - Lawrie or Hosmer, and Pineda or Beachy

Postby Grounded Polo » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:32 am

raiders_umpire wrote:
bayside wrote:I could keep both Lawrie and Hosmer,



Well that settles it, keep both Lawrie and Hosmer. With only 8 keepers per team, you should be able to build a very good staff to work with.


;-D

Lowrie and Hosmer are a toss up, then the difference between them and Beachy/Pineda is canyon sized, absolutely not close in any way.
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