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VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby mweir145 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:44 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
mweir145 wrote:I mean...what's to be afraid of? That he's suddenly going to lose his plate discipline or his power for no reason at all? I can't help but think the original skepticism about Bautista is still beneath the surface for many, despite the fact that he has now hit like the best hitter in baseball for nearly 2.5 seasons. Doubt the guy at your own risk, I guess. It's burnt a lot of fantasy owners (including me).


Agreed. I'd have no reservations about grabbing him in the top half of round 1 next season.

I'm not sure I'd expect a .300 average again (which came as a result of hitting like Bonds for 2 months), but the batting eye and power should be there. The guy's one of the best hitters in the game, I thought he had proven that by now.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:50 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Tavish wrote:Sounds good.
3 out of 5 wins. With one of the categories (SBs) being a virtual lock for Lawrie, I don't anticipate having much difficulty winning this bet. Even if Moustakas is as good a hitter as Lawrie in 2012 (and his plate discipline and swing stats at the MLB level suggest he's not there yet), he's still going to have trouble putting up the necessary counting stats to beat Lawrie. Lawrie will simply be hitting in the middle of a better lineup in a much more offensive park. The only thing that might stop him is in an injury (and the guy does play the kind of ultra-intense game where he might get hurt).

You're splitting hairs on the lineups. Toronto scored 13 more Runs than Kansas City this season, and there's no telling what this off-season will bring, and where they'll each be come April. A lot of this bet will be determined by where each settle into their respective lineups out of the gate.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby mweir145 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:56 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
Tavish wrote:Sounds good.
3 out of 5 wins. With one of the categories (SBs) being a virtual lock for Lawrie, I don't anticipate having much difficulty winning this bet. Even if Moustakas is as good a hitter as Lawrie in 2012 (and his plate discipline and swing stats at the MLB level suggest he's not there yet), he's still going to have trouble putting up the necessary counting stats to beat Lawrie. Lawrie will simply be hitting in the middle of a better lineup in a much more offensive park. The only thing that might stop him is in an injury (and the guy does play the kind of ultra-intense game where he might get hurt).

You're splitting hairs on the lineups. Toronto scored 13 more Runs than Kansas City this season, and there's no telling what this off-season will bring, and where they'll each be come April. A lot of this bet will be determined by where each settle into their respective lineups out of the gate.

The fact that they managed to score more than the Royals with the lineup they had says it all. The Jays played with Juan Rivera (useless), Jayson Nix (less than useless), Corey Patterson (lol), Aaron Hill (complete scrub hacker), and Rajai Davis (4th OF) in their starting lineup for nearly 3 months of the season. They've replaced those players with Eric Thames, Brett Lawrie, Kelly Johnson (if they re-sign him, as I expect they will), and Colby Rasmus. My hope is that they'll add another big bat in the lineup in the offseason as well, but if those 3-4 play anywhere close to their potential, the Jays lineup will be very good in 2012 anyway.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby mweir145 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:01 pm

By the way, for those that haven't seen Lawrie play, the guy has superstar potential. He has incredible range in the field (much more than anybody in Toronto was led to believe), a great batting eye (he's swung at pitches out of the zone in 2011 at a rate comparable with guys like Youkilis and Santana), raw power to all fields, a pretty good contact rate for somebody with his level of power (which should allow him to maintain an average close to .300 eventually), and very good speed (with the intuition to know when to steal and take the extra base).

When I look at him, I think of a hybrid Kinsler/Braun type. Can he be that good as soon as next season? Probably not, but he has special player written all over him.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby Tavish » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:06 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
Tavish wrote:Sounds good.
3 out of 5 wins. With one of the categories (SBs) being a virtual lock for Lawrie, I don't anticipate having much difficulty winning this bet. Even if Moustakas is as good a hitter as Lawrie in 2012 (and his plate discipline and swing stats at the MLB level suggest he's not there yet), he's still going to have trouble putting up the necessary counting stats to beat Lawrie. Lawrie will simply be hitting in the middle of a better lineup in a much more offensive park. The only thing that might stop him is in an injury (and the guy does play the kind of ultra-intense game where he might get hurt).

You're splitting hairs on the lineups. Toronto scored 13 more Runs than Kansas City this season, and there's no telling what this off-season will bring, and where they'll each be come April. A lot of this bet will be determined by where each settle into their respective lineups out of the gate.

Or more likely decided by injury as mweir mentioned.

I definitely like the chances of Moose winning RBI, almost as much as I expect Lawrie to win SB. He will likely spend the vast majority of the year batting directly behind Gordon, Melky or Cain, Hosmer and Butler, while I would think Lawrie will settle into the #2 role. I don't see Lawrie as more than a 15-20 HR type hitter and feel pretty solid about Moose being able to beat that even in the bigger park. Assuming both play the same amount of time it should all come down to BA. Moose will definitely be the underdog in that battle but I wouldn't shock me to see him take it.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby mweir145 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:12 pm

I doubt the Jays will bat Lawrie at #2, he has too much power. Farrell had the opportunity to do that several times this season, but never even considered it. I suspect Lawrie will be hitting behind Bautista at #4 or #5 next season.

My best guess:
Escobar
Johnson
Bautista
Lind/Lind's replacement
Lawrie
Rasmus
Encarnacion
Thames
Arencibia
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:44 pm

mweir145 wrote:Lind/Lind's replacement

Please, please be a replacement. Pujols or Fielder would be nice, but I'd settle for somebody who has had an OBA above .300 over the past 2 seasons.

And Lawrie has tons of power... 15-20 is pretty conservative. Probably won't even be close between him and Moustakas, but time will tell I guess.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby jfg » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:57 pm

Anybody else really worried about Bautista next year? I have no choice but to keep him, but I have a feeling he's going to be no better than above average.
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby mweir145 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:11 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Lind/Lind's replacement

Please, please be a replacement. Pujols or Fielder would be nice, but I'd settle for somebody who has had an OBA above .300 over the past 2 seasons.

Lind is a hack. At the very least, they should at least platoon him.

And Lawrie has tons of power... 15-20 is pretty conservative. Probably won't even be close between him and Moustakas, but time will tell I guess.

Yeah...I'm a little surprised he chose to bet on Moustakas in this one. All the better for me, I guess.


jfg wrote:Anybody else really worried about Bautista next year? I have no choice but to keep him, but I have a feeling he's going to be no better than above average.

No more worried than I am about Ryan Braun producing, no. Is there a legitimate reason we should be worried about him? Something perhaps beyond misplaced fear about a .900 OPS over the last 2.5 months?
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Re: VERY EARLY 2012 Rankings

Postby wrveres » Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:26 pm

mweir145 wrote: Doubt the guy at your own risk, I guess. It's burnt a lot of fantasy owners (including me).
pfffft ... whatever. i just took down Ayebatters roto crew which had Baustista, Granderson, Ellsbury, and Fielder.
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