I'd keep one of your pitchers...probably Lester, over Young. Young will be one of the easiest to draft back next year. His numbers are good but not top-of-the-draft great. Lester is the sexy pick, but Kennedy might be the savvy pick. I wouldn't keep both though, because keeping pitching year-over-year is tricky. We know enough about Lester to think he'll be fine every year for a while.
I would go with Ian Kennedy since I expect him to have very similar numbers next year. He is in a more pitcher friendly division then Lester. And I really hate having fantasy pitchers that are in the AL East unless it's Sabathia or Beckett.
Lester's k/9 has gone down the last three years, at the same time, his WHIP has gone up, albeit slightly. His k/bb has also gone down the last 3 years as well. Don't get me wrong, I love me some Jon Lester, but for people who think he hasn't reached his potential, his stats have relatively stayed the same over the past 3 seasons, and if anything, he is regressing ever so slightly...
I don't know if this means anything at all, but you kind of know what you're going to get out of Lester. Kennedy on the other hand has come out of nowhere and definitely had the better seasons while staying healthy all year long. Dominated the NL West this year: 10-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.022 WHIP.
Either of them are good options, but in the end, I'd still take Lester only because I have an unnatural man-love for that guy... plus I'd take the safer choice, which is Lester.
Thanks. I love people who use stats in their replies.
I went one step farther.
I would never start Lester against the Yankees, and never have in all of the years I've had him on my team. This year, he has a 2.98 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP against the rest of the teams he's faced. But you are right, his K-rate is down quite a bit this year, and his walks are up.
It's a tough choice. Ugh. If Kennedy had one more good season under his belt, I'd be keeping him.
fast dogs wrote:I guess the only other way to go would be keep both and don't keep Hamilton. He is "only" going to go 25/100/300 with less than 10 sb's and you could have received that from all 3 KC OF'ers more or less. Hamilton is always going to have more risk than most. The safest and smartest route is just keep Lester over Kennedy, but depending how many OF you start this would be the only other option that allows you to keep both aces and eliminate the biggest injury risk of your keepers
This is what is meant by "thinking out of the box." Let me take it one step further. Wins in fantasy are so random that any time you can get true aces cheap you should. So...Lester and Kennedy are both aces and if possible you keep them. It sounds crazy to say "drop Hamilton to keep them," but dogs is right, he does spend time on the DL every year.
Think about it like this: of the guys you are considering as your final keeper, which one would you have the best shot at redrafting? I believe thats Kennedy because nobody is going to draft him if Lester is still available. so he'd be the guy i cut. You just have to think about your draft position and which other playerss will be available.
kailromanoff wrote:I would keep the same 6. Lester vs. Kennedy is close. Kennedy is an NLwest pitcher which is far more appealing than an ALeast pitcher, but imo Lester's history vs Kennedy's lack of one is the tiebreaker. I wouldn't consider keeping Kennedy over Tex though
That's for the help with mine. I tend to agree with the above. It's hard to envision Kennedy any better than he is now, while Lester has been pretty consistent. And in most drafts, you're going to see Lester chosen earlier than Young. So, I think you are on track.