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Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby striderex » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:07 pm

Well Mcdonald might come back to the Jays if they offer him a deal
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:07 pm

mweir145 wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:if he accepts arbitration then they still get a solid 2B at a decent price on a one year deal (if they don't just extend him). it's a pretty weak free agent class for MIs so worse things could happen for the jays. on the other hand, hill was just dead money and had no value whatsoever.

I think a lot of people don't realize just how bad Aaron Hill is these days.


but he hit 36 homeruns that one year!
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby mweir145 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:09 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:if he accepts arbitration then they still get a solid 2B at a decent price on a one year deal (if they don't just extend him). it's a pretty weak free agent class for MIs so worse things could happen for the jays. on the other hand, hill was just dead money and had no value whatsoever.

I think a lot of people don't realize just how bad Aaron Hill is these days.


but he hit 36 homeruns that one year!

Many casual Jays fans didn't like this deal today mainly for that reason, I think.
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:22 pm

mweir145 wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:I think a lot of people don't realize just how bad Aaron Hill is these days.


but he hit 36 homeruns that one year!

Many casual Jays fans didn't like this deal today mainly for that reason, I think.

You were all over his Johnson that year, and a train of excuses when he sharply regressed the following year. This 'he is awful' schtick is a relatively recent transition.
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby mweir145 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:40 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
but he hit 36 homeruns that one year!

Many casual Jays fans didn't like this deal today mainly for that reason, I think.

You were all over his Johnson that year, and a train of excuses when he sharply regressed the following year. This 'he is awful' schtick is a relatively recent transition.

I assume you're talking about Hill, not Johnson (I've always been a huge fan of Johnson). And let's stick with the truth here rather than false perception. I've been talking about Hill's poor approach at the plate for years now and believed that Hill would have a serious regression in 2010 after his outlier 2009.

Criticized him in January despite wrveres' defense of him: viewtopic.php?t=420922
Criticized his approach at the plate in May 2010 (which hasn't fixed in the 15 months since): viewtopic.php?t=412657&start=10
I thought I posted this post on this forum during his 2009 season, but I must have done it somewhere else: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... f-the-hill


BTW, even if this "he is awful' schtick was a recent transition, which it clearly isn't, what does that have to do with the great deal the Jays made here?
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:42 pm

mweir145 wrote:I've always been a huge fan of Johnson
:-b
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby mweir145 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:11 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
mweir145 wrote:I've always been a huge fan of Johnson
:-b

So why did you think it was a recent transition, again?

Seems like yet another unsupported claim about me and my posts due to a complete misconception.
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:14 pm

mweir145 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
mweir145 wrote:I've always been a huge fan of Johnson
:-b

So why did you think it was a recent transition, again?

I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall you, during Johnson's big season, explaining his change in approach, etc. as the reason for the change (much like you do Bautista now) and why there is no reason to believe this was some anomoly and that this is what should be expected from him going forward, and also in the Spring prior to the following year to people who were looking for advice on where to draft him in their leagues. Again, I could be wrong here cause I'm sure as hell not gonna eat time searching for something so insignificant. If my memory serves correct, and it typically does, wonderful. If not, I still got:
mweir145 wrote:I've always been a huge fan of Johnson
out of the deal. I'll call that a win on my end.
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby mweir145 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:24 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote: :-b

So why did you think it was a recent transition, again?

I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall you, during Johnson's big season, explaining his change in approach, etc. as the reason for the change (much like you do Bautista now) and why there is no reason to believe this was some anomoly and that this is what should be expected from him going forward, and also in the Spring prior to the following year to people who were looking for advice on where to draft him in their leagues. Again, I could be wrong here cause I'm sure as hell not gonna eat time searching for something so insignificant. If my memory serves correct, and it typically does, wonderful.

Again, it was Hill's big season. And no, your memory is not correct. See the post above where I cite the differences between Hill's season and Bautista's season to Hill believers. And the thread where I criticized his approach at the beginning of 2010 (sorry, there was no "train of excuses"). Even when he was hitting a ton of HRs in 2009, I was not a huge supporter of his (with his low BB rate and low OBP) when many others were. Unlike Bautista, most of his HRs just barely made it over the LF fence.

Unless your definition of a recent transition is two years, this entire Aaron Hill is awful thing is not recent.
Last edited by mweir145 on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kelly Johnson traded for Aaron Hill/McDonald

Postby kab21 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:30 pm

mweir145 wrote:Still not seeing any benefit at all here for Arizona. Kelly Johnson would be worth the money for the Jays if he accepts arbitration (7.5 fWAR over the last two seasons, compared to Hill's awful 0.7).


Convenient end points in your WAR analysis since they don't include KJ's awful '09 or hill's great '09. Or that almost all of KJ's value is tied up in one season while hitting in one of the best offensive parks in baseball. If you want to say that KJ is playing a little better right now then OK. But both players are struggling.
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