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Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +? WHIR

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Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +? WHIR

Postby plapre3 » Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:57 pm

So, my season is essentially over thanks to some of the most predictable fades (you'll see with my roster below, but it was worse after dealing away other albatrosses! Alex effing Rios, I'm talking about you). So, I am in full out "get the best keeper mode." Our keeper settings are such that we must keep 5 and may keep up to 10. The additional keepers cost draft picks, so if one team were to keep 5 and all others 10 that team that kept only 5 would have the first five picks in the draft from the remaining keeper pool. Since elite talent doesn't make the keeper pool, my understanding of the league structure is that it's best to keep 10, but not absolutely requisite. In general, however, being a keeper means that the play should be considered at least a top 140 pick... with value skewed toward youth. Anyway, with this in mind, I want to get younger and stronger keepers while dealing non-keepable higher performing talent. I won't include them in the deal in this post, but they are there; if I can't keep them they are worthless to me.

Should I deal my Jered Weaver and Shane Victorino for his Josh Johnson, Logan Morrison, and Jholys Chacin?

The deal would upgrade Victorino to Lomo (in my mind), net me a decent potential keeper in Chacin (I think he'll regain control shortly, thanks to a convincing hard ball times article), and give me the guy whom I think its the better pitcher, Johnson. It's the latter that gives me pause. I think Weaver is pitching well over his head, but at least he's proven healthy; Johnson, I don't know. Anybody with good information on his health? In full, this deal could net be seen as 2 keepers for 3, which would bring my keepers from 9 to 10 and possibly net me the best keeper pitcher not named Felix, Lincecum, etc, and a guy who could totally be the next Ubaldo. Not really sure on this, so really hoping for detailed feedback.

My potential keepers (K indicates I plan to keep):
Govanny Soto
Prince Fielder (K)
Ian Kinsler (K)
Hanley Ramirez (K)
Kevin Youkilis (K)
Shane Victorino (K, though I don't feel good about it)
Shin Soo Choo (I still believe in him and would probably try to convince myself not to give up if he has strong September)
Jose Tabata (Ditto)
Matt Joyce
Danny Espinosa (K)

Roy Halladay (K)
Jered Weaver (K)
John Lester (K)
Ryan Vogelsong (So good, but 33 and playing over his head).
Daniel Duffy (Predicting a big breakout, but obviously need a lot to break right.)
Carlos Carrasco (ditto, but to a lesser extent)

Thanks so much in advance!
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby plapre3 » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:50 pm

Bump, please. I've WHIR'd several times to people who offered to WHIR, but so far I have nothing. Believe it or not, the guy I'm going to talk deal with right now is in China (on his honeymoon), so it's kinda pressing for tonight. At the very least please help knowing that you get to aid in one of two awesome things: a cross-continental deal or a trade with a guy on his honeymoon!
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby BlueJaysFan » Mon Jul 25, 2011 12:14 am

Its hard to say who will be better next season, but I personally like Weaver more than JJ. Now, thats based on how they played, or haven't played this year (Weaver leads the AL in ERA, and has other great stats). At the beginning of the season, I would have drafted JJ first, but I think Weaver is no fluke and can easily have another season like this next year. I'm not sure Lomo is an upgrade to victorino, but I can see your thinking. Getting Chacin for the rest of the season isn't bad; he can potentially be your 10th keeper. So what I would do is, make the deal but take out Weaver and JJ. But, if you think JJ will be better than Weaver next year, I'd do the deal as is.
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby ATLbraves » Mon Jul 25, 2011 12:42 am

BlueJaysFan wrote:Its hard to say who will be better next season, but I personally like Weaver more than JJ. Now, thats based on how they played, or haven't played this year (Weaver leads the AL in ERA, and has other great stats). At the beginning of the season, I would have drafted JJ first, but I think Weaver is no fluke and can easily have another season like this next year. I'm not sure Lomo is an upgrade to victorino, but I can see your thinking. Getting Chacin for the rest of the season isn't bad; he can potentially be your 10th keeper. So what I would do is, make the deal but take out Weaver and JJ. But, if you think JJ will be better than Weaver next year, I'd do the deal as is.

I completely agree. Obviously JJ is a great pitcher, but he has a tough time staying healthy so it's hard to have too much confidence in him.


help with mine please:
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=435524
Last edited by ATLbraves on Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby Bolthead04 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:24 am

I actually love the deal as is. I do believe JJ will put a better full season together than Weaver next year, even with injury concerns to be had. I also like switching Victorino for LoMo and Chacin.

As for details, I seriously doubt Weaver will throw a repeat next year, and I believe the fish will be the breakout candidates of 2012 (to be the next version of the 2011 pirates perhaps?) (Especially with the trade deadline looming and the team wanting to move stock...) As for Chacin, I think he will be a very solid pitcher. Ubaldo'esque? Who knows? But, I like his pitching style and I like his team. He will be solid.

Really, if this is on the table to accept, go for it. It helps both sides and gives you a solid set of keepers for next year. I think this is a very solid deal for you.

Thanks for the help on mine! Cheers! ;-D
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby ATLbraves » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:45 am

Bolthead04 wrote:I actually love the deal as is. I do believe JJ will put a better full season together than Weaver next year, even with injury concerns to be had. I also like switching Victorino for LoMo and Chacin.

As for details, I seriously doubt Weaver will throw a repeat next year, and I believe the fish will be the breakout candidates of 2012 (to be the next version of the 2011 pirates perhaps?) (Especially with the trade deadline looming and the team wanting to move stock...) As for Chacin, I think he will be a very solid pitcher. Ubaldo'esque? Who knows? But, I like his pitching style and I like his team. He will be solid.

Really, if this is on the table to accept, go for it. It helps both sides and gives you a solid set of keepers for next year. I think this is a very solid deal for you.

Thanks for the help on mine! Cheers! ;-D

Bolthead makes very good points, the Marlins have so many young players they should definitely be much improved next season and potentially in the playoff race. Their young hitters will have more experience and should be able to put up more run support, which is much better for their pitchers. Logan Morrison also looks like a great young hitter, and should get better with the more experience he has.
Plus the Marlins will be in a new ballpark, which might give the team a boost as well.

I say definitely make the move if you are trying to improve your team for next season, but it could hurt you if you are trying to win this season imo. Since JJ might not even pitch again until 2012.

Here a small update I found on JJ's injury from 2 days ago:
"Johnson getting a little stronger: Florida SP Josh Johnson's injured shoulder is regaining some strength and the hurler is feeling better since getting his cortisone shot three weeks back, reports MLB.com on Friday night. That said, it is still up in the air whether or not he gets back on a major league mound this year for the Marlins. Johnson is still on "no-throw" status and doesn't know when he'll be able to start. 'I'm doing a lot of exercises and stuff, and that's about it,' Johnson said. 'I'm trying to get back to 100 percent strength-wise.' "


help with mine again if you have a chance (made a new thread and explained my situation better):
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=435531
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby kaiser » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:34 am

I'd want the combination of Weaver and Shane over JJ, LoMo and Chacin. If I could be confident in JJ actually playing a full season, I would porbably take that side, but at this point, I just dont have that confidence.

Help with this Votto/Wright trade?
viewtopic.php?t=435534
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby exm » Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:26 am

plapre3 wrote:Should I deal my Jered Weaver and Shane Victorino for his Josh Johnson, Logan Morrison, and Jholys Chacin?


Thanks for helping mine. I agree with the above: JW is a stud, where JJ is injury prone and JC unproven (great 1st half, so so 2nd half of 2011)
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby plapre3 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:48 pm

Bump again. I'll be on here for the next hour or so and I'm still unsure of what to do about this deal. WHIR 100%, so please post links.
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Re: Keeper deal: Weaver for (damaged goods) Josh Johnson +?

Postby dannahann » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:57 pm

kaiser wrote:I'd want the combination of Weaver and Shane over JJ, LoMo and Chacin. If I could be confident in JJ actually playing a full season, I would porbably take that side, but at this point, I just dont have that confidence.

Help with this Votto/Wright trade?
viewtopic.php?t=435534


I agree. JJ is a monster but that shoulder always acts up and they never really fix it. I see Weaver and Victorino as the safer keeps but JJ definitely has the higher ceiling if you are a high risk/high reward guy.
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