10 team, 5x5 Standard H2H weekly changes. Auction keeper.
My pitching isn't very top heavy because I recently traded away Felix for Hanley (1 month ago, that has worked out rather well) but I do have 11-12 viable starters if Bedard ever comes back. With this being a weekly changes league, I do rather well playing matchups and two-start weeks, and I almost always come away winning pitching. You can keep a guy forever, but his price goes up 20% each season(Keep 6 max). I do have 1B/CI covered fairly well, but my Util is weak and Votto could really help my crap average. I am ahead by 10 from this team in second and I am looking fine for keepers so the price isn't a huge deal, though Verlander is a good keeper candidate at that price. So, would you do:
Votto- $43 Kuroda- $6
C Miguel Montero 1B Ryan Howard 2B Ian Kinsler 3B Michael Cuddyer SS Hanley Ramirez CI Aramis Ramirez MI Neil Walker OF Ryan Braun OF Jay Bruce OF Jacoby Ellsbury OF Chris Young Util Dustin Ackley Util Yunel Escobar
BN Alex Rios DL Jason Kubel
P Justin Verlander P Jhoulys Chacin P Brandon Morrow P Johnny Cueto P Madison Bumgarner P Max Scherzer P Brandon Beachy RP Craig Kimbrel RP Sergio Santos
I feel like Verlander is a great keeper pick at that price, but I still do think the deal looks pretty good and would most likely accept it.. If I was you I would send a couple counter-offers before accepting though, just so you can attempt to keep Verlander. Possibly something like Young/Morrow for Votto to see if he will bite on that or Yunel/Chacin for Votto if he needs a SS (even though you might have to give up a little more then just Yunel/Chacin). Or if you can't give up an OF'er offer Aramis/Bumgarner for Votto, I do think Aramis will keep up good numbers but this is still a good time to sell high on him.
I'm really high on Verlander, especially at that price in a keeper.. He could well be kept for 3 years even factoring in the price increase. I also find it hard to trust Bedard to come back healthy and as effective.
I think that's a big hit on your SP and I'd try to go with a deal that doesn't involve him. Maybe Gio or Morrow as a better starting point.
I offered Verlander/Cuddyer for Votto/Pineda. Pineda is a $5 keeper. That way my pitching doesn't suffer as much and I get a solid keeper in return. He told me last night he wasn't terribly high on Pineda and he is considering the offer. Do you guys think it's a better offer? Should I get Verlander out entirely or does adding Pineda and Cuddyer make it a nice looking deal?
Normally I would say take Votto. But the price on Verlander is just so much better than the price on Votto.
At the current rate of $43, Votto will be over $50 next year and a full $60+ the next year.....so he is really a short-term keeper. On the otherhand, Verlander could be be affordable for a lot longer.
I don't know how much adding pineda and cuddyer changes the deal since the future value/cost of Verlander and Votto still dominate the deal. Though in a keeper league adding Pineda at $5 is clearly an upgrade over Cuddyer.
Considering that you have a comfortable lead.....I am going to go against the conventional wisdom of "take hitting over pitching" and suggest you keep Verlander. First of all, you pitching is thinner than your hitting as it is. But I think Verlander is the much better value for a keeper. In the next draft it will be almost impossible to find a pitcher of Verlanders skill in the low to mid-$20's...........but I think you would be able to find a hitter like Votto (if not Votto himself) in the mid or upper $40's range.
Of course, if you are high on Pineda, I couldn't call you crazy for grabbing Votto (he is a stud)......as long as you understand you likely wont be able to afford keep him more than once. But I do think Verlander is the safer bet/better value.
rjforlife wrote:I offered Verlander/Cuddyer for Votto/Pineda. Pineda is a $5 keeper. That way my pitching doesn't suffer as much and I get a solid keeper in return. He told me last night he wasn't terribly high on Pineda and he is considering the offer. Do you guys think it's a better offer? Should I get Verlander out entirely or does adding Pineda and Cuddyer make it a nice looking deal?
Adding Pineda definitely sweetens the deal imo, cause he should be a great keeper pick. But don't forget that Pineda will likely be shut down this season so that will prob hurt you in the playoffs.
Misterf makes a very logical argument about Verlander being quite valuable in this league long term. However, I can't help but think you should make the deal and get Votto/Pineda. Besides your reasoning in the OP, I feel Michael's low price offsets a good deal of the value you lose out on Verlander. I've got a good deal of faith in a kid that comes right into the majors and dominates the majority of hitters he faces. With Votto, you're likely not going to get such a good opportunity to buy low on him while in his prime.