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Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

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Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby khabibul35 » Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:39 am

I'm in a dynasty where I'm managing the Cincinnati reds. I'm considering offering Votto for Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon.

Personally, I feel like Hosmer will catch up with Votto within the next couple of years and Gordon would be icing on the cake. Would you do this trade?
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby ahcryky » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:09 am

I'd rather have Votto hands down!
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby MadDog36 » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:34 am

If Gordon were at 3b long term this would be tempting however I'd keep Votto.
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby mpieco » Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:20 am

It's tough because Votto is already a sure thing, whereas Gordon JUST "blossomed" this year, and Hosmer projects well, but who knows.

I never like giving up a sure thing. I think I'd be really tempted, but in the end, prefer to keep Votto.
(In reference to an Aaron Hill for David Price swap)

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Trade accepted! Thanks for the help!
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby pjalst » Tue Jul 12, 2011 10:58 am

With Moustakas playing 3rd, Gordon may loose his eligibility there. This would decrease his value.
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby dannahann » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:16 pm

Depending on your league size and current competitive situation you can make a real strong case for both sides of this one.

If you are in a strong position to win or place high this year and next the trade is tricky. Votto is the surer/safer play short term as many have said. I happen to agree with your initial assessment that within a couple years it's very possible Hosmer will be posting similar stats to Votto. Pedigree, hype, and minor league stats don't always accurately project major league abilities but if you compare Hosmer to the other consensus stud keeper 1B he's right there with Cabrera, a little ahead of Prince and well ahead of what Votto, A-Gonz, Tex, Howard, Butler, and Morneau did, and at a younger age too. (You can't comp Albert as he essentially skipped AA and AAA). Again, no guarantee Hosmer will match or exceed these guys, just that he'd have to make less improvement on his minor league resume than a guy like Votto had to, to be the same major league hitter. At six years younger Hosmer would be an even stronger keeper if/when he ascends to Votto's production level. Gordon is also younger but it's closer. He's going to be an OF unless KC makes a trade or moose gets hurt. He's developed into a decent to very good one already. It's not a stretch to project him as a solid top 50-100 hitter into the future, with slim potential for even more.

You didn't describe the dynasty settings but I'm assuming this is a full dynasty and you can retain the young Royals for as long as you want. I'm also assuming your league is at least 12 teams. If so I personally do the deal UNLESS I'm spitting away a good shot at a title right now.

PS our league is similar and the Votto owner (out of it this year) recently dealt him away to address other more crucial keeper needs. He felt comfortable doing so because he also expects Hosmer to become his new Joey Votto by mid 2012 to 2013. If you need the underlying minor league stats supporting my wild Hosmer claims I can dig those up easily enough.
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby ahcryky » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:35 pm

Minor league stats......
Votto
06 .319/85/22/77/24
07 .294/74/22/92/17

Hosmer
09 .241/40/6/59/3
10 .338/67/20/86/14
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby dannahann » Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:13 pm

ahcryky wrote:Minor league stats......
Votto
06 .319/85/22/77/24
07 .294/74/22/92/17

Hosmer
09 .241/40/6/59/3
10 .338/67/20/86/14


I'm guessing these must include rookie ball, low A, and such right? Typically the comparisons looked at for minor leaguers is how they fared versus high minors competition (AA and AAA). Heres a more detailed rundown of these 1B.

VOTTO, 2nd round pick / top BA prospect ranking #43 / AA/AAA combined stats / 1170 PA / 1004 AB / age 22 and 23 / 0.307 BA / 0.908 OPS / HR'd every 22.82 AB / K'd every 4.58 AB / K/BB = 1.48

HOSMER, 1st round pick #3 / top BA prospect ranking #8 / AA/AAA combined stats / 329 PA / 293 AB / age 20 and 21 / 0.355 BA / 1.026 OPS / HR'd every 18.31 AB / K'd every 6.81 AB / K/BB = 1.26 (smaller sample size but beat Votto in every stat at 2 yrs his jr)

CABRERA, drafted ?? / top BA prospect ranking #12 / AA/AAA combined stats / 303 PA / 266 AB / age 20 / 0.365 BA / 1.038 OPS / HR'd every 26.6 AB / K'd every 5.43 AB / K/BB = 1.58 (sample size and age similar to Hosmer)

FIELDER, 1st round pick #7 / top BA prospect ranking #11 / AA/AAA combined stats / 1018 PA / 875 AB / age 20 and 21 / 0.280 BA / 0.890 OPS / HR'd every 17.16 AB / K'd every 4.7 AB / K/BB = 1.56 (same age and similar HR rate to Hosmer but poorer plate discipline)

TEIXEIRA, 1st round pick #5 / top BA prospect ranking #1 / AA/AAA combined stats / 200 PA / 171 AB / age 22 / 0.316 BA / 1.006 OPS / HR'd every 17.1 AB / K'd every 4.75 AB / K/BB = 1.44 (very small sample size, didn't include rehab stints at ages 25 and 27)

A-GONZ, 1st round pick #1 / top BA prospect ranking #31 / AA/AAA combined stats / 1942 PA / 1742 AB / age 20 through 23 / 0.290 BA / 0.803 OPS / HR'd every 33.5 AB / K'd every 5.69 AB / K/BB = 1.87 (a long development in minors and majors)

HOWARD, 5th round pick / top BA prospect ranking #27 / AA/AAA combined stats / 807 PA / 695 AB / age 24 and 25 / 0.315 BA / 1.061 OPS / HR'd every 11.21 AB / K'd every 3 AB / K/BB = 2.34 (amazing power, tons of Ks, much older, poor comp)

MORNEAU, 3rd round pick / top BA prospect ranking #14 / AA/AAA combined stats / 1301 PA / 1164 AB / age 20 through 23 / 0.291 BA / 0.871 OPS / HR'd every 19.4 AB / K'd every 5.46 AB / K/BB = 1.9 (longer development ala A-Gonz but produced sooner at major league level)

BUTLER, 1st round pick #14 / top BA prospect ranking #25 / AA/AAA combined stats / 1025 PA / 893 AB / age 19 through 21 / 0.321 BA / 0.912 OPS / HR'd every 23.5 AB / K'd every 7.2 AB / K/BB = 1.18 (the only one that rivals Hosmer's plate discipline)
Last edited by dannahann on Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby khabibul35 » Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:28 am

After a bunch of back and forth, the Royals owner and I settled on:

Hosmer
Gordon
Melky

for

Votto
Wood
Gerardo Parra

I think this is an excellent deal for me, I almost feel like I robbed the other dude... though I understand I'm biased because of my love for Hosmer. Let's see how it works out.
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Re: Dynasty: Votto for Hosmer and Gordon

Postby MadDog36 » Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:34 am

Melky is a flash in the pan but Gordon and Hosmer are legit.
Votto is the only sure piece your getting back.
Not high on parra and wood is that kerry wood. No MLB player with the name of Wood holds much value.

Votto is certainly the best player in the deal but the other pieces are worthless IMO Stay.
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