Significance of BABIP?

[mbfan1982]

Not sure if this is the right forum for this question, but figured I'd try it here first.

I've been seeing this stat thrown around in a discussions of certain players. I looked it up on wikipedia and found that it's a sabermetrics stat and there was some general explanation of it. But can someone explain to me how to interpret it in relation to various players? What's a "good" BABIP vs a "bad" one? Or maybe realistic/sustainable vs not? Any other info you could supply would be super helpful.

Thanks!

[bigken117]

BABIP tends to be in the .300-.310 area, so conventional wisdom states that a player with a low BABIP is due to see a rise in his hits because he has been unlucky, where a player with a high BABIP is due for some regression to the mean.

Last season Carlos Gonzalez had a monstrous .384 Batting Average on Balls in Play and he was fantasy's #1 player, this season his BABIP is lower at .284 and he's ranked a meager 72. His high BABIP was the reason some savvy players stayed away from him in the first round.

[thedude]

BABIP is also helpful when looking at pitchers. A pitcher with a low BABIP may have benefited from luck and good defensive team. Some argue that pitchers have no control over balls in play. While i disagree with going that far, a pitcher with a very low BABIP will likely come back to earth somewhat the following year.

[Element]

BABIP tends to be in the .300-.310 area, so conventional wisdom states that a player with a low BABIP is due to see a rise in his hits because he has been unlucky, where a player with a high BABIP is due for some regression to the mean.

Last season Carlos Gonzalez had a monstrous .384 Batting Average on Balls in Play and he was fantasy's #1 player, this season his BABIP is lower at .284 and he's ranked a meager 72. His high BABIP was the reason some savvy players stayed away from him in the first round.

Correct. Of course it's not just black and white though. Typically, players that can maintain higher line drive rates (Votto, Kemp, MCab, etc) can maintain a higher BABIP (0.330-0.350). Also consider a players speed as well. Michael Bourn has been able to maintain a higher BABIP over the past couple of seasons.

[fantasygameday]

BABIP is also helpful when looking at pitchers. A pitcher with a low BABIP may have benefited from luck and good defensive team. Some argue that pitchers have no control over balls in play. While i disagree with going that far, a pitcher with a very low BABIP will likely come back to earth somewhat the following year.

Great point...

Often times a very low BABIP and a low ERA will be accompanied with a high strand rate, and the inverse can be true as well.

One other note...

BABIP will fluctuate more with fewer at bats or innings pitched. Meaning, BABIP numbers are more "predictive" of future performance in May and maybe June when there is enough time. This goes for pitchers as well. Since relievers do not pitch as many innings as starters, their BABIP numbers tend to move in a violent fashion. Starting pitchers tend to gradually regress to the mean at a slower rate.