-He's never pitched more than 42 innings in a season at any level. -His BABIP is a very low .210 -His FIP and xFIP are both over 1.4 points higher than his ERA -He's striking out 6.44 per 9 (which puts him behind guys like Freddy Garcia and Tim Stauffer) -His groundball rate is 36.4% which is 96th amongst ALL qualified starting pitchers
Besides the fact that his supporting stats just aren't there, he's most likely going to be limited in his innings or he will hit some sort of wall.
What's the optimistic outlook?...And you can't cite his win-loss record (a misleading and flawed statistic) up to this point
I don't see him falling off a cliff if that is what you are asking. His stuff is filthy and as long as he can keep his control in check then he'll be good. Sure he's going to regress....he HAS to regress at least a little....but I don't see him putting up a prolonged 4.5ERA or anything. He may wear down as the innings mount on him and if they aren't careful with him he may be the biggest question mark going into next season because he'll have this good year under his belt but if they throw him a ton of innings he'll be a huge injury/dead arm risk next year. I'd treat him similar to Pineda this year...go ahead and get a couple more starts out of him but trade him before the innings mount and he either starts wearing down or they just start limiting his innings and outings...sell high soon for sure.
Don't you think he'll hit that wall this year though? He's already 20 innings over his career high. With all of the other stats showing how lucky he's been, I feel it's very likely that he could be awful come All-Star break, if not sooner. I think a DL stint is in the future to rest him after a few bad starts. Not that he'll actually be injured, but there's no way he can keep pitching these innings when he's never done it before.
jfg wrote:Don't you think he'll hit that wall this year though? He's already 20 innings over his career high. With all of the other stats showing how lucky he's been, I feel it's very likely that he could be awful come All-Star break, if not sooner. I think a DL stint is in the future to rest him after a few bad starts. Not that he'll actually be injured, but there's no way he can keep pitching these innings when he's never done it before.
His stats need to be taken somewhat with a grain of salt. Guy has been pitching since 2005. I'm certain he's thrown more pitches (and thus conceptually innings) in prior years to 2010 but who knows as to how many.
Ogando seems like a near lock to have been in the DWL or the VWL and was probably used as a starter. Has anyone checked those stats instead of just looking at his MLB/MiLB innings pitched? He's still going to make a big innings jump this year but it might not be as bad as you think.
"But they had to harness it. That was the job of Ogando's coaches in the Dominican Republic. Ogando was invited to join the minor leaguers for spring training in 2005, but when he applied for his work visa, it was denied. Ogando admitted involvement in a human trafficking ring in which he had agreed to be paid to marry someone to get her into the United States. ESPN Deportes reported that the scandal involved about 30 Dominican minor league players between the 2004 and 2005 seasons.
"He was taken advantage of," Daniels said. "That's no excuse, but the punishment didn't fit the crime."
That punishment was five years without a visa to enter the United States. That relegated Ogando to pitching in the Dominican Summer League, winter ball and any international tournaments in which he could participate."