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Is this trade fair?

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Is this trade fair?

Postby ramble2 » Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:11 am

Is this trade fair? It's causing a firestorm in my league.

5x5 12-team keeper. Each team gets to keep 5 players, each of whom costs a draft pick. Plus, each team may keep two developmental keepers (rookie or sophomore players). Rosters are 25 deep, meaning each season there are 23 draft picks.

The trade:
I give up: Hellickson + Wainwright + Trumbo + Roberts + 10th round pick
I receive: Bell + Wilson + Pedroia

The other team is rebuilding. I'm in a 3-way tie for first this year and needs saves and SB.

Keeper costs:
  • Hellickson, as a rookie, may be kept as a developmental player for two years, then will cost a 10th round pick in 2014, 8th round in 2012 (or may be kept as a 15th round pick in 2013, 13th in 2014, etc.)
  • Wainwright went undrafted, and was picked up off of waiver wires. In our league, this means he'll only cost a 20th round pick next season, 18th round in 2013, etc.
  • Pedroia will cost a 16th round pick next season, 14th in 2013, etc.
  • Bell, Wilson, Trumbo and Roberts are unlikely to be kept.

My read:
I get a huge boost this year. The other team has the clear edge in the future.

The freakout:
Two people are complaining about this trade--the two I'm tied for first place with, coincidentally. The complaint being that Pedroia is worth Hellickson + 10th round pick on his own. I think this is crazy. They are citing his 2008 MVP award, and arguing he is an elite 2B. Nobody minds trading current for future value; the complaint is that the future value is equal in this trade.

I see the future value as follows. I looked back at the 2009 2B rankings (Pedroia had numbers comparable to 2008). He ranked 8th among 2B! Cano, Utley, Roberts, Zobrist, Hill, Kinsler and Figgins all had better fantasy numbers, on Yahoo rankings. To me, that's best case scenario for Pedroia. He's top-10 if things go right, leaving aside his struggles the last two seasons.

Hellickson is a top-rated prospect. I'd put him in the category just below Strasburg, with a few other elite pitching prospects. Wainwright, as a 20th round keeper, is a great risk/reward candidate. He doesn't have to be a top-5 SP next year to justify keeping him, and potentially is a long-term keeper and foundation for a pitching staff. He's a cheaper keeper than Pedroia, and better.

Let's be generous and say that Wainwright and Pedroia are a wash. That leaves the other team getting Hellickson + 10th round pick. That's a huge value. Am I crazy to see it this way?

Either way, I'm killing the trade. It's not worth causing a rift in my league. I'm going back to the original trade, before the other team suggested adding Pedroia. I'm sending him Hellickson + Wainwright for Bell + Wilson. Clear win for me this year, clear win for him next year. Simple and clean.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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Re: Is this trade fair?

Postby MaudDib » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:55 am

I think it is pretty fair. You are winning the first trade but I can see why the other team is doing the trade. Personally, I would rather have Pedroia but having Wainwright and Hellickson for next year is a pretty good addition. The second trade is like you said, good for you this year and good for him next year. Kind of a risk on your part because you lose some valuable players for next year if you don't win a title. But a gamble worth taking.
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