Very straightforward...12-team, H2H points league...I am considering proposing a trade w/ Verlander in the return package and either Oswalt or Gallardo would need to be traded to his team. The question...who should I prefer to trade away?
Oswalt - More reliable, lower ERA, does a little better in the 2nd half. However, older and has already been on the DL this season. Also doesn't seem to go past 6-7 IP a start. Gallardo - More iffy, but has great upside and is red-hot in May. Can go deeper into games (we get points for IP), but the ERA is going to be higher as well.
I get: 1B Gonzalez, OF Cruz, SP Verlander, (maybe add Walden if I swap RP's...would give me a slight edge in the pen)
I give: 1B Pujols, OF Heyward, SP Oswalt/Gallardo...SP Strasburg too?, (maybe add Bard or Romo if I swap RP's...we count holds)
The other team is in the cellar and this trade could help them going into 2012. We keep 4 players at the end of the season, Pujols/Heyward are definite keepers, Strasburg would be as well if I included him. It would be a pure "win now" move for me (he'd get one of Oswalt/Gallardo because they're both solid and would help his team this year too). However: -Do I get enough for it to be a "win now?" Is Cruz superior enough to Heyward in 2011 to make this worth it? Is Verlander enough of a boost over Oswalt/Gallardo? -Does he get a considerable enough boost for 2012 for it to be fair? Heyward and Strasburg are future stars and Pujols is Pujols (albeit struggling).
I realize the post above is confusing, here is the simpler version (H2H points, 4 keepers after the season):
I GET 1B AGon OF Cruz SP Verlander -optional...RP Walden
I GIVE 1B Pujols OF Heyward SP Oswalt OR Gallardo (who would I prefer to trade away)? SP Strasburg -optional...RP Bard OR Romo
Intent of the trade -I improve in the OF and at SP in 2011 while not losing big time at 1B. I am near the top of the standings. -He acquires three keepers in Pujols, Heyward and Strasburg for 2012. He is near the bottom of the standings.
I am going to admit that my response is a little biased (because I own Oswalt), but I'd rather deal Gallardo because his starts seem to be a coin flip. Gallardo is most likely going to be great, but he's still very young and is going to have to prove himself. Oswalt, on the other hand, is a very established starter thats been around for awhile.
Now, I have a question: Who are your 4 keepers for next season, as is, before the possible trade?
Pujols, Heyward, Gallardo/Oswalt, Strasburg?
So after the trade you're looking at: AGon, Cruz, Verlander, Gallardo/Oswalt?
Out of those two options, I'd take the first. Pujols > AGon (Yeah he's struggling and AGon is on fire, I don't care - he's still Pujols. Check the history.) Heyward > Cruz (It's a keeper and Cruz = DL. Heyward is a machine.) Gallardo < Verlander (It's closer than it looks because Gallardo is 3 years younger than Verlander and this is a keeper.) Strasburg = Gallardo/Oswalt (It's a keeper... you have the best pitching prospect in the game.)
I'd take the Pujols/Heyward/Gallardo/Strasburg keepers and sit pretty knowing you have the best young hitter/pitcher combo in the game coupled with the league's best hitter and a stud young SP ace to boot.
AngryMonkey - though I will worry about keepers after the season, my roster also has the likes of Weaver and Tex (among others), so keeper-wise I will still have some solid players regardless.
How is the trade for just 2011? I was also considering removing Oswalt/Gallardo and Cruz from the trade so it would be Pujols-Heyward-Strasburg for AGon-Verlander, but I'm not sure the other owner would be so compelled to do that.
Any other thoughts? Trades are always risky, so any advice would be helpful.
I began the negotiations with: Pujols-Heyward-Strasburg for Verlander and AGon. I also sent an offer that does not include the 1B, if he prefers AGon, so be it.
I took Cruz out for right now, as I would be offering Oswalt or Gallardo if he were involved. Being a DL risk, not sure if it's worth it as a "win now," what do you think? If you feel Cruz is much better than Oswalt or Gallardo, I can send that in as well.