Which SP possibly gets dealt?

[Fantasy GM]

Very straightforward...12-team, H2H points league...I am considering proposing a trade w/ Verlander in the return package and either Oswalt or Gallardo would need to be traded to his team. The question...who should I prefer to trade away?

Oswalt - More reliable, lower ERA, does a little better in the 2nd half. However, older and has already been on the DL this season. Also doesn't seem to go past 6-7 IP a start.
Gallardo - More iffy, but has great upside and is red-hot in May. Can go deeper into games (we get points for IP), but the ERA is going to be higher as well.

Thoughts?

[wkpdpack]

If it were me, I would trade away Oswalt for the very reason on injury. He's already been on the DL this year. Gallardo is starting to get into form and will be great here on out.

Please help with my post viewtopic.php?t=431974

[Fantasy GM]

For what it's worth, the deal I have in mind:

I get: 1B Gonzalez, OF Cruz, SP Verlander, (maybe add Walden if I swap RP's...would give me a slight edge in the pen)

I give: 1B Pujols, OF Heyward, SP Oswalt/Gallardo...SP Strasburg too?, (maybe add Bard or Romo if I swap RP's...we count holds)

The other team is in the cellar and this trade could help them going into 2012. We keep 4 players at the end of the season, Pujols/Heyward are definite keepers, Strasburg would be as well if I included him. It would be a pure "win now" move for me (he'd get one of Oswalt/Gallardo because they're both solid and would help his team this year too). However:
-Do I get enough for it to be a "win now?" Is Cruz superior enough to Heyward in 2011 to make this worth it? Is Verlander enough of a boost over Oswalt/Gallardo?
-Does he get a considerable enough boost for 2012 for it to be fair? Heyward and Strasburg are future stars and Pujols is Pujols (albeit struggling).

[Fantasy GM]

I realize the post above is confusing, here is the simpler version (H2H points, 4 keepers after the season):

I GET
1B AGon
OF Cruz
SP Verlander
-optional...RP Walden

I GIVE
1B Pujols
OF Heyward
SP Oswalt OR Gallardo (who would I prefer to trade away)?
SP Strasburg
-optional...RP Bard OR Romo

Intent of the trade
-I improve in the OF and at SP in 2011 while not losing big time at 1B. I am near the top of the standings.
-He acquires three keepers in Pujols, Heyward and Strasburg for 2012. He is near the bottom of the standings.

Thoughts?

[jruffus1]

I am going to admit that my response is a little biased (because I own Oswalt), but I'd rather deal Gallardo because his starts seem to be a coin flip. Gallardo is most likely going to be great, but he's still very young and is going to have to prove himself. Oswalt, on the other hand, is a very established starter thats been around for awhile.

[jpbusta]

I like the deal for you. AGon is insanely great and Cruz and Verlander give you an edge over the other side.

[RyeWhiskey]

First, thanks for the help with mine.

Now, I have a question: Who are your 4 keepers for next season, as is, before the possible trade?

Pujols, Heyward, Gallardo/Oswalt, Strasburg?

So after the trade you're looking at:
AGon, Cruz, Verlander, Gallardo/Oswalt?

Out of those two options, I'd take the first.
Pujols > AGon (Yeah he's struggling and AGon is on fire, I don't care - he's still Pujols. Check the history.)
Heyward > Cruz (It's a keeper and Cruz = DL. Heyward is a machine.)
Gallardo < Verlander (It's closer than it looks because Gallardo is 3 years younger than Verlander and this is a keeper.)
Strasburg = Gallardo/Oswalt (It's a keeper... you have the best pitching prospect in the game.)

I'd take the Pujols/Heyward/Gallardo/Strasburg keepers and sit pretty knowing you have the best young hitter/pitcher combo in the game coupled with the league's best hitter and a stud young SP ace to boot.

Hope that helps.

[Fantasy GM]

AngryMonkey - though I will worry about keepers after the season, my roster also has the likes of Weaver and Tex (among others), so keeper-wise I will still have some solid players regardless.

How is the trade for just 2011? I was also considering removing Oswalt/Gallardo and Cruz from the trade so it would be Pujols-Heyward-Strasburg for AGon-Verlander, but I'm not sure the other owner would be so compelled to do that.

[Fantasy GM]

Any other thoughts? Trades are always risky, so any advice would be helpful.

I began the negotiations with: Pujols-Heyward-Strasburg for Verlander and AGon. I also sent an offer that does not include the 1B, if he prefers AGon, so be it.

I took Cruz out for right now, as I would be offering Oswalt or Gallardo if he were involved. Being a DL risk, not sure if it's worth it as a "win now," what do you think? If you feel Cruz is much better than Oswalt or Gallardo, I can send that in as well.

[RowdyRed]

I guess for 2011 this works OK for you, but I feel like you are trading Pujols and Heyward at the bottom of their value. That doesn't seem like it is Trading 101 to me.

Then again, I just dealt Crawford at the bottom of his value in a keeper league. So who am I to talk about that?

I feel like in a keeper league, you deal Oswalt over Gallardo if given the choice. They are fairly equal, but Gallardo is younger with more long term upside.