How best to decide whether a pitchers starts or not?

[Devil Doc]

I'm in a 10 team league, where the scoring for pitchers is based off of K, W, Save, ERA, WHIP, and Pitcher Team Win.

We are only allowed to have 12 starts total for the week of play, and until last week I haven't really had to worry about coming near that. What's the best way to decide who should start, and who shouldn't through out the week as to make sure that I get the best 12 starts. So far, I've just put in which ever pitcher is probable for that day, regardless of matchup, and let it ride. Its got me in 2nd place in my division, and 4th overall in the league. But after last week, I realized I needed to be more careful about who I start. Again this week, I will hit that 12/12 starts mark, but I didn't pay much attention to match ups as I did quality of pitchers. What's the best way to tackle this type of situation?

Thanks for any advice, I really appreciate all the help, including the advice I've recieved thus far!

This week (so far) I started: Hellickson, Lohse, Norris, Chacin, Jurrjens, Dempster.
Starters I plan starting Thurs-Sun: Pineda (vs NYY), Chacin (vs StL) Jurrjens (vs Cin), Lohse (@ COL), Norris (vs ARZ), Dempster (vs PIT)
Starters that play but benched: Oswalt (@ NYM), Tomilin (@ TB), Kuroda (vs FLA)

P Jhoulys Chacin, Col SP
P Jair Jurrjens, Atl SP
SP Jeremy Hellickson, TB SP
SP Kyle Lohse, StL SP
SP Roy Oswalt, Phi SP
SP Ryan Dempster, ChC SP
SP Michael Pineda, Sea SP
RP John Axford, Mil RP
RP Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP
Bench Josh Johnson*, Fla SP DL15
Bench Bud Norris, Phi SP
Bench Hiroki Kuroda, LAD SP
Bench Josh Tomlin, Cle SP
DL Brandon Beachy

[Bullatopia]

The answer is never straightforward except for top 30 SP-caliber guys. You pretty much have to start them every time out (with only the rarest of exceptions).

After that, a few points:

1. League scoring type & IP limits matter - In Roto leagues with IP caps, you can't waste your IP - so a conservative approach works best - it takes a while to recover from a brutal outing. In H2H leagues with a high min. IP count - you can't get too cute. Leagues that work in between - blend the 2 principles.

2. In H2H, the weekly results matter later in the week - In H2H leagues, to start off a week, there are no considerations - but as the weekend approaches, looking at the matchup results does matter with uncertain candidates. If you are way behind in WHIP/ERA, you have nothing to lose. If you are way ahead there, and the W/K's aren't hinging on that ONE guy, I'd take a conservative approach.

3. Matchups matter with marginal candidates - Finally, with iffy candidates (the WW/endgame material we so often discuss), matchup circumstances do matter. Playing a horrible team, favorable home park, etc. - all favor being more aggressive. Playing at TEX/BOS/NYY/PHI, or against a top 5 O - NO WAY. It might work out once in a while - but on the whole, the safe play is to sit - unless #2 is more important (you can't lose cats with a bad performance, it's late in the matchup, and you have to catch up).

[KingOfSports]

Just something that works for me is to rarely throw starters against teams like the Red Sox and Yankees unless they're a top 20-25 pitcher.

[FantasyTeamAdvice]

If your pitcher is top 20, he starts no matter what. Otherwise play the matchups, and if they face 2 sub .500 teams, run them out there and hope for the best