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trade value of injured stars

Postby Willy T 4 MVP » Mon May 23, 2011 8:14 pm

Just wondering how everyone here thinks about the trade value of injured superstars. I'm talking about guys like Wright, Zimmerman, Victorino, Lind, Mauer. Generally speaking, if you own one of them, do you look to sell at a discounted rate or do you prefer to wait it out (and take on the risk of uncertainty) to hopefully reap full value 4+ weeks into the future?

For example, if Wright is a $37 hitter and could be out 2 weeks or 6 weeks (and the injury could linger all year), is it worth it to move him for a top 20 pitcher or top 40 hitter? Do you take anything you can get for Mauer or Zimmerman at this point?

There's no right or wrong answer, I'm just wondering how you all approach trade values of injured studs.
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Re: trade value of injured stars

Postby kab21 » Tue May 24, 2011 5:49 am

I'm not against acquiring injured stars if I'm confident that they will return close to 100%. guys like mauer I'm a little iffy on since nobody really knows wth is going on with his injury and no timetable has been set for his return. In particular I like acquiring stars at positions where I need an upgrade while trading from a position of depth. Particularly if it's a H2H league where I'm focusing on the playoffs.

For example Zimmerman has missed a lot more time than I expected when I traded Weaver/Nathan for him. But if he's able to come back in a month I can jettison a guy like Cuddyer or polanco and get a big offensive upgrade in my H2H league. I still have one of the best pitching staffs in my league even w/o Weaver.
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Re: trade value of injured stars

Postby jpbusta » Tue May 24, 2011 6:46 am

I always try to acquire injured stars. I do that when they start rehabbing or right before they start. There are a few managers in every league that can't wait out their star player's injuries. If you aim right, you have the chance to get a stud for a cheap price.
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Re: trade value of injured stars

Postby CharlatanSin » Tue May 24, 2011 7:37 am

In my experience, acquiring injured stars is difficult, because they tend to be worth more to the person holding them than the guy acquiring. I think there's a psychological factor at play here -- many folks have a hard time dealing with sunk cost. If I drafted Ryan Zimmerman as a 2nd rounder, I'm going to have trouble trading him for less, even if his injury precludes him from putting up 2nd round stats. At least in my league, owners seem to care about draft position above all.

I'm trying to overcome this mindset after I passed on several decent offers for Kinsler last year and got burned when he never came back strong. Ditto Carlos Quentin the year before.
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Re: trade value of injured stars

Postby lastingsgriller » Tue May 24, 2011 11:12 am

CharlatanSin wrote:In my experience, acquiring injured stars is difficult, because they tend to be worth more to the person holding them than the guy acquiring. I think there's a psychological factor at play here -- many folks have a hard time dealing with sunk cost. If I drafted Ryan Zimmerman as a 2nd rounder, I'm going to have trouble trading him for less, even if his injury precludes him from putting up 2nd round stats. At least in my league, owners seem to care about draft position above all.

I'm trying to overcome this mindset after I passed on several decent offers for Kinsler last year and got burned when he never came back strong. Ditto Carlos Quentin the year before.


This.

additionally, *stars* hold down DL spots, so it really doesn't cost the owner much to wait it out and see if the player comes back 100%.

if you really want to find a deal, look for the team that has more injured players than available DL spots. that person will be happy to trade you an unhealthy player at a discount.
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Re: trade value of injured stars

Postby BigZ38 » Tue May 24, 2011 12:10 pm

It's funny you mention Zimmerman because I've offered up what I thought was more than a fair deal to fill my 3rd base hole (just a week or two after Zim got hurt) and the guy wouldn't have it.
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Re: trade value of injured stars

Postby thejusman1 » Tue May 24, 2011 1:22 pm

Really depends on the injury too. Far too often a stud player will rush his return and risk re-aggravating his injury, or worse yet, trying to play through it and giving you crappy numbers. I think unless there's really positive news about his rehab, it's usually not worth the risk trading for injured players. But by all means, if you can get a discounted price for a stud who is nearing a return and sounds as if he's fully healthy again... I've got no qualms about that.
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