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Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby jfg » Mon May 23, 2011 5:18 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Who cares? Wins are stupid.


They are, and they shouldn't be in any equation for Cy Young or HOF induction. But at the same time, 300 wins is pretty special and one of the greatest things about baseball is milestones and speculating about milestones. No other sport has holy grails quite like baseball and you have to admit at the very least, it's fun to specualte on them. These are always my favorite threads.
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby West » Mon May 23, 2011 8:04 pm

He did 2.27 and 1.06 last year and only won 13. So, probably not.

And I don't want to start a whole big thing, but in my opinion, there's a chance he could be a year or two older than he claims. Again, not trying to start a big debate and with that said I love Felix, own him in my main keeper.
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon May 23, 2011 8:14 pm

jfg wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:Who cares? Wins are stupid.


They are, and they shouldn't be in any equation for Cy Young or HOF induction. But at the same time, 300 wins is pretty special and one of the greatest things about baseball is milestones and speculating about milestones. No other sport has holy grails quite like baseball and you have to admit at the very least, it's fun to specualte on them. These are always my favorite threads.

Who will get to 300? Nobody, unless they're still pitching at like 45 years old, and it's pointless to speculate which 27 year old will still be around almost two decades from now. Wins. Are. Stupid.

The 70-WAR mark is more fun because it's actually going to happen and we can actually predict who will do it. Here's a list of players that could hit 300 wins:

Lincecum if he's still pitching at age 45
Halladay if he's still pitching at age 45
King Felix if he's still pitching at age 45
Greinke if he's still pitching at age 45
Kershaw if he's still pitching at age 45
Strasburg if he's still pitching at age 45
Chapman if he's still pitching at age 45
Sabathia if he's still pitching at age 45
Lester if he's still pitching at age 45
Ted Lilly if he has a career resurrection in his thirties like Randy Johnson did, and if he's still pitching at age 45
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby Tavish » Mon May 23, 2011 8:35 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
jfg wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:Who cares? Wins are stupid.


They are, and they shouldn't be in any equation for Cy Young or HOF induction. But at the same time, 300 wins is pretty special and one of the greatest things about baseball is milestones and speculating about milestones. No other sport has holy grails quite like baseball and you have to admit at the very least, it's fun to specualte on them. These are always my favorite threads.

Who will get to 300? Nobody, unless they're still pitching at like 45 years old, and it's pointless to speculate which 27 year old will still be around almost two decades from now. Wins. Are. Stupid.

The 70-WAR mark is more fun because it's actually going to happen and we can actually predict who will do it.

So what is the point of speculating about who will reach a mark if we already know who will get there? It would be more fun to predict who will reach 70 WAR in their career then have a few bad seasons hanging on trying to get 300 wins and end up back below the mark. Would they still count as a 70 WAR pitcher?
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby jfg » Mon May 23, 2011 8:51 pm

Greg Maddux hit 300 at age 38.
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby jfg » Mon May 23, 2011 9:09 pm

Actually if you take a look at the 300 wins club, dominant pitchers hit the milestone at 40 or less, good pitchers need 4-5 more years. I don't think we'll see those good pitchers hitting 300 anymore but I bet I see a couple dominant pitchers getting there in my lifetime, maybe needing that a few more years than in the past.
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon May 23, 2011 11:31 pm

Maddux also debuted at age 20, and he was inhumanly durable ('95 was the only year after his third season where he didn't max out his GS), and by age 38 he had 24 extra starts above the typical 33 for the top two in a five man rotation. Maddux and Clemens are the only pitchers in the era of five-man rotations to hit 300 wins before age 40, and they were both in the majors at 20 years old. Felix is the only one who remotely has a chance at doing it by age 40, but the odds are still against him. The only chance any other active pitcher has is continuing to be a regular starter until their mid-forties.

90% of it is durability, consistency, and the foresight to sign with a team with a rotation so crappy they need a 40+ year old dinosaur to anchor their staff. Go back to the end of 1986 and tell someone that Jamie Moyer will collect the second most wins of any pitcher active at that point. They would be all like, "You're stupid, Doc Gooden has had 57 wins before his age 22 season, he's a lock for 300", but then he goes on and flames out completely by the mid-90s. Also, on that note, pitchers can't do what hitters like McGwire did and build legendary numbers out of short careers with tremendously high peaks, so we have to base it more on who will pitch 20+ seasons, and you can't predict that. Go back to the end of 1992 and tell someone that Randy Johnson would go on to win 300, and they'd be all like, "You mean that 29 year old with horrendous control issues and 49 career wins? You're stupid. Now Jack Morris, he has 237 wins coming off of a 21 win season at 37 years old, he clearly has the durability to hold on to that for 4-5 more years. And let me tell you about this Kevin Appier kid!" Seriously, Randy Johnson winning 300 is the equivalent of Jose Bautista hitting 500 HR, and nobody has any business even trying to predict something like that.

And of course there's the variability of wins, with elite pitchers like Felix topping 14 wins once and average pitchers named after dirty body parts like Colon and Wang winning about 20, blah blah blah everyone knows this is true
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby Ender » Mon May 23, 2011 11:53 pm

jfg wrote:Actually if you take a look at the 300 wins club, dominant pitchers hit the milestone at 40 or less, good pitchers need 4-5 more years. I don't think we'll see those good pitchers hitting 300 anymore but I bet I see a couple dominant pitchers getting there in my lifetime, maybe needing that a few more years than in the past.


Yes and the game has completely changed so you really would have to be the best pitcher in baseball on one of the best teams in baseball to have a chance to hit it even if you are dominant into your 40s.
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby kab21 » Tue May 24, 2011 12:31 am

It really comes down which of these pitchers can both remain healthy and above average for 20+ years. GS's/season have gone down since the 90's (when Glavine, Maddux, Clemens were in their prime) and teams go to the bullpen sooner (fewer decisions). I won't say that there is a 0% chance but it's pretty unlikely that we ever see another 300 game winner.
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Re: Felix Hernandez - 300 wins?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Tue May 24, 2011 12:35 am

not a chance.
plus he'll blow out his elbow at least once, which already almost happened few years back.
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