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Double Dipper: Dempster Diving

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Double Dipper: Dempster Diving

Postby WebHamster » Sat May 21, 2011 12:08 pm

You know who almost earned the “must-start” designation from me this week? Ryan Dempster, he of the 6.91 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Crazy talk? Dempster sports a nice 52:21 K:BB ratio in 56 innings this season, roughly the same as Max Scherzer (53:24, 2.81 ERA), Jhoulys Chacin (52:22, 2.70 ERA) and Trevor Cahill (52:20, 1.79 [...]

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2011 ... mpster.php
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Re: Double Dipper: Dempster Diving

Postby Matthias » Sat May 21, 2011 12:39 pm

The article linked to in the article linked to is way too fast to call everything "luck".

In the same article, he talks about Dempster having a high BABIP and calls that luck and then talks about Dempster giving up too many HRs and calls that luck. The whole conception of BABIP as luck is that it excludes HRs which are not. And to defend the idea that the Cubs have a bad defense which might explain a higher BABIP this year, he says that they've had the 3rd-lowest BABIP among NL teams since 2008. If that's not a cherry picked statistic, I don't know what is not to mention, that the Cubs teams of 2008, 2009, and 2010 aren't taking the field today. The Cubs team of 2011 is. And if that team has defensive problems such as a Soriano who moves like The Thing in left field that's what is important.

All in all, the article made me look at Dempster. But I wouldn't jump and call him a must-start by any stretch. His best stat, his xFIP, is still at 3.92 which is better than what he's been showing so far but isn't an ace hiding behind a black cat by any means. Heck, it's not like he's Matt Garza.
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Re: Double Dipper: Dempster Diving

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sat May 21, 2011 1:11 pm

WebHamster wrote:You know who almost earned the “must-start” designation from me this week? Ryan Dempster, he of the 6.91 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Crazy talk? Dempster sports a nice 52:21 K:BB ratio in 56 innings this season, roughly the same as Max Scherzer (53:24, 2.81 ERA), Jhoulys Chacin (52:22, 2.70 ERA) and Trevor Cahill (52:20, 1.79 [...]

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2011 ... mpster.php


Though I somewhat agree with the sentiment that Dempster is a buy-low bound to improve, 52:21 is hardly a "nice" K/BB unless league average somehow = "nice."

2011 looks like the real "year of the pitcher." 27 qualifying starters with ERAs under 3 and plenty of arms available on the waiver wire in standard mixed leagues leaves Dempster as a middling option.
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